Displaying items by tag: bear market

Credit rating agency Moody’s Investor Service, has issued a warning to investors that the debt poses ‘systematic risk’. The factors that Moody’s sees sourcing that risk is an opaque market, eroding lending standards and liquidity concerns. Private credit has seen a flood of inflows this year to venture capital, private equity, real estate and infrastructure as the industry is more robust to the pressures from the mainstream economy on traditional bonds and equity. However, the risks in the medium sized boutique bond market are hard to capture because they fall in regulatory limbo and could cause broader economic disruption. Finally private equity relies heavily on leverage and while that's fine for the time being, it may pose serious structural issues for the illiquid market as interest rates begin to normalize.

FINSUM: The 2008 financial crisis was primarily driven by the rise of the lesser regulated shadow banking industry. Private credit’s swell is very reminiscent of the housing bubble creation.

Environmental, social, and governance investing drew in almost $35 trillion last year and that number is expected to grow another 42% by 2025, and while those dollars might be better for the environment the large inflows from unseasoned investors are pushing ESG into a price bubble. Large inflows are can disregarding traditional financial discipline which can affect debt/equity ratios, dividends, and distort valuations for future mergers and acquisitions. New companies in the onset of their financial growth are already being evaluated at 15 times revenue, on top of that investments in the traditional sector are suffering as outflows continue this could cause supply shortages and further inflation. Continued inflows into ESG could swell the bubble further and risk a collapse.

FINSUM: ESG could be swelling into risky territory, investors should be cautious particularly with retirement vehicles.

(Rio de Janeiro)

The international monetary fund cut its growth projections globally this week. The advanced economies are still expected to keep pace, but the low-income developing countries are lagging. Many low-income countries are lagging in vaccine coverage and their exports are suffering because of this. These exports slowing led the IMF to cut the growth projection for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam from 4.3% to 2.9%. There is a slight trickle into larger economies as worker shortages have hurt American companies such as Nike. China remained robust to most of the slashes as its 2021 projection only dropped from 8.1% to 8.0%.

FINSUM: Don’t look for these growth projections to bear out in emerging markets if vaccine rates tick up. However, Fed tightening could slow growth in dollar-dependent countries.

September saw the Vix creep to a 4-month high as the S&P 500 blew off 4.8% of its value. Most investors were hoping for a bounce-back month in October, chalking up September’s poor performance to a checkered history for the opening of autumn. However, they are likely to be remiss as volatility indexes are still climbing. The pullback in September was the largest since March of 2020, when the pandemic began.BofA said that while October is generally a well-performing month when it trails a struggling September, October can drag as well. Debt ceiling negotiations, oil price spikes, and Fed tapering are just a few of the onslaught of headlines which are giving the market fits.

FINSUM: While volatility has yet to hit the peaks of September it is already consistently above its 200-day moving average, which could be a sign of even more volatility to come.

Facebook was blacked out on Monday October 5, 2021, which they claim was related to technical issues on their backbone routers. This came just before Frances Haugen, former product manager for Facebook’s civil integrity team, said that regulators need to intervene in the ‘crisis’. Haugen told ‘60 Minutes’ that she saw Facebook consistently choose profits over public safety at Facebook.She took with her tens of thousands of documents that prove these claims. Additionally, she filed complaints with the SEC that Facebook misled investors and advertisers by not sharing the whole picture about its platform.

FINSUM: This was a huge hit to Facebook stock on Monday, but it piggybacked on the rest of tech’s rally Tuesday morning to see some recovery. It is difficult to tell how long this may loom over the stock.