Displaying items by tag: bear market

Tuesday, 11 January 2022 21:31

Goldman Makes a Very Bearish Call on 2022

Goldman Sachs updated its path for Fed tightening in 2022 calling for four rate hikes instead of three in 2022. This is a fairly aggressive path for tightening as the current Fed target interest rate is between 0%-.25% which means it will hit around 1-1.25 by Goldman’s forecast. The biggest reason for the rate rises is the tightening labor market. Previously the Fed leaned on slack in the labor market as an excuse to brush off inflation concerns but now they are no longer doing that. Goldman has the hikes penciled in for each quarter March, June, September, and now December. Goldman saw regional San Francisco President Mary Daly’s comments of shedding some balance sheet weight of indicating the Fed’s future path.


Finsum: The Fed hasn’t tightened this quickly in the post-financial crisis era, but broadly the markets and yields are in lock step with Goldman’s predictions.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Friday, 24 December 2021 23:25

Goldman Just Got Very Bearish on 2022

Omicron is sweeping the U.S. and once again threatening to cripple the economy, already major airlines are canceling flights and potential Christmas plans. This makes moderate Dems walkout on the Build Back Better even more critical as the country could desperately be in need of stimulus at the moment. This caused Goldman to cut its GDP growth by 1% annualized in Q1 2022 and a half a percent in Q2. CPI rose at a 39-year record in November, which could make the possibility of a big BBB bill even less likely as price pressures deter policy makers. Goldman still sees the possibility that congress will aid a bit with the new omicron surging.


FINSUM: It’s tough to justify another trillion-dollar stimulus package with roaring inflation, and it might be futile with the Fed pumping the breaks; lookout for stagflation!

Published in Eq: Total Market
Tuesday, 21 December 2021 18:13

Bond ETF Inflows Fall to Pandemic Lows

The latest data release from BlackRock’s iShares division revealed troubling news about the state of Bond Market ETFs: inflows slumped to just $14 billion which is the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. It's the taxable corporate bond market that's fairing the worst as investors are pouring less dollars into traditional corporate debt and junk bonds, amid fears of inflation eating yields. Instead, investors are turning to shorter duration and inflation protected bonds. Nearly 40% of fixed income flows went into inflation linked bonds, an almost unprecedented number. Investors have also started to put inflows into Chinese bonds as the international sovereign debt market was a relative winner among bond ETFs. China’s yield is the biggest draw to international investors as they see the debt as relatively secure and paying more than developed countries.


FINSUM: Expect corporate bond outflows to continue until the TIPS spread starts turning towards the Feds 2% inflation objective.

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Monday, 13 December 2021 08:15

Goldman Says Don’t Buy the Dip

November was full of volatility, and that's more than leaked into December, but Goldman warned investors about buying the dip hoping for a post Christmas rally. The biggest two threats Goldman sees are ongoing, the new omicron Covid 19 variant and the newfound inflation hawkishness by the Fed. The bear wave has hit a variety of asset classes whether its tech or bitcoin, and their risk appetite is low. The street is mixed however as some indications of omicron is it won’t be severe and Fed actions haven’t taken hold just yet. The VIX is still above its short and longer run moving averages which should keep investors cautious.


FINSUM: There is really no reason to move drastically right now, the Fed will be more transparent in the next couple of months.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Tuesday, 23 November 2021 18:11

Greenwashing Erodes ESG Investments

ESG has been the hottest investment subculture of the last 5 years, and greenwashing was largely concerned with investors being skittish, but greenwashing has now metastasized and regulators are watching. Deutsche Bank AG’s asset management team DWS rode the wave as hard as any investment firm but now the U.S. The Department of Justice, the SEC, and Germany's BaFin are looking into the company's ESG claims. Whistleblowers have spurred the investigation and now Asoka Woehermann, the leader of the operation, is coming under pressure. This marks a new and more uncertain future for ESG, one that could have regulators holding a tighter leash over financial firms moving forward. DWS has reiterated they have done nothing wrong or steered investors in the wrong direction.


FINSUM: This is a major test for financial firms and forward-looking tools could be a difference-maker to keep regulators from targeting the next financial firm.

Published in Eq: Tech
Page 10 of 61

Contact Us

Newsletter

Subscribe

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

Top
We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…