Thursday, 27 May 2021 16:33

Real Yields are a Huge Warning Sign

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(New York)

Inflation worries may have surged this Spring, but that has not helped real yields. When you compare the yields of stocks and bonds versus inflation, the truth is that real yields have turned negative. It is unusual for the S&P 500 to have a negative yield, which is currently at -0.81%. That is slightly better than 10-year Treasuries’ real yield of -0.87%. This has usually spelled trouble historically. Going back to 1970, there has only been one instance when the market did not decline at least 32% in the two years following the point at which yields went negative.

FINSUM: This is a pretty scary statistic, but then again, most historical contexts don’t involve a pandemic-induced country-wide shutdown and unprecedented government stimulus.

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