Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
Income stocks are a tough asset to place right now. On the one hand they have provided steady income since the Crisis, but as rates have risen, they have started to be wounded by losses and their yields no longer look as promising. Only 25% of stocks in the S&P 500 have yields higher than the 10-year Treasury bond. But what about stocks that are still handily out-yielding bonds? The best places to look are in consumer staples (averaging 3.3% yields), real estate (3.4%), telecom (5.4%), and utilities (3.6%).
FINSUM: So you can still get some great yields, but the big risk at the moment is capital losses because of rising rates.
(New York)
Rates are rising, and that usually means bad news for income stocks. This time looks no different. Both utilities and real estate have been wounded this year, with both down between 3% and 6% for the year. The sectors are also getting increasingly unfavorable ratings from analysts.
FINSUM: We are pretty worried about losses coming for good income stocks as short-term Treasuries are yielding so much. Additionally, the Fed is sounding more hawkish, which only adds momentum to losses for rate sensitive equities.
(New York)
Investors look out! After years of booming asset prices on the back of extraordinarily loose monetary policy, everything looks like it is about to implode. Not only is the Fed hiking and looking hawkish, but the ECB is in the middle of a covert meeting likely about how to end QE. China also looks close to reigning in its economy. Altogether, the economy on which current markets have been built looks set for change, which might cause big problems for equity investors.
FINSUM: So far “normalization” of interest rates has been quite slow, which has let investors sort of ignore the process. If things start accelerating quickly, then markets may react very sharply.
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(New York)
In what might be a sign of a rough patch to come for the global economy and markets, 16 of the largest global banks have collectively just entered a bear market, falling 20% from their peak. Those 16 come from among the 39 global “sifis”, or systemically important financial institutions. One research analyst says “If these banks are supposed to be systemically important then policymakers ought to be watching them to see what is happening”.
FINSUM: The odd part about these falls is that rising interest generally help banks, as they have wider net interest margins. So why the downturn?
(New York)
The whole retail world is centered on Amazon right now. Will ecommerce, led by Amazon, continue to disrupt traditional retailers? That is the nauseatingly frequent question being fretted over by investors. Well, here are a group of Amazon-proof strategies that investors can use to pick retail stocks. The core of the argument is that retailers need to focus on the areas that Amazon is not good at offering. In particular: “experience; customer service; partnerships with influencers; and personalization”. Private label brands are another area, as companies like Target have launched in-house brands that are exclusive to their stores.
FINSUM: We believe in three of the areas mentioned, but in-house brands and customer service are not good strategies to outcompete Amazon in our mind. In-house brands just aren’t compelling enough (especially nascent ones), and we feel Amazon has better customer service (at least online) than almost anyone.
(New York)
While Treasury yields, especially at the short end of the curve, have improved a great deal recently. Many investors may still be interested in adding some stocks with good dividends to their portfolios. With that in mind, pharma may be a great place to look. The sector is having a tough time this year—down over 6% to-date—but that means dividend yields are looking strong. The sector is averaging 2.9%, but the best payers are near 4%, including some big names. For instance, AbbVie and Pfizer are both yielding 3.7% or over, and both seem to have rock solid outlooks where that dividend is not going to shrink.
FINSUM: These seem to be some great choices. The risk here does not appear to be in the fundamentals, but more related to interest rates.