(Los Angeles)

The US real estate market has looked weak for over a year now, and things aren’t really improving. While the market has not seen the bottom fall out, it is going through a weak period. New data on home sales shows that home price gains in 20 US cities have slowed for the 12th straight month. Property values in March were up 2.7% from a year earlier, their weakest gain since August 2012.

FINSUM: The market is steadily slowing. One might hope that falling yields could help perk up the market, but the threat of the trade war will probably keep buyers anxious.

(New York)

The market has been worried that the trade war may prove inflationary. Higher tariffs would mean higher prices passed along to customers, in turn raising inflation. This is scary because it means the US could get caught in a stagnant economy with higher inflation, which would keep the Fed from cutting. However, the reality is that the trade war may in fact be deflationary instead. The reason why is two-part. Firstly, governments, businesses, and consumers are likely to take actions to off-set the rise in costs; and secondly, the economic toll may hurt the economy so that prices cannot rise.

FINSUM: We do not think tariffs will be inflationary. Thinking of them as automatically inflationary is very narrow-minded, as it does not actually take into account the effects tariffs will have on aggregate demand.

(New York)

The trade war has really taken a toll on Treasury yields. The tensions between the US and China have made investors bearish about the economy, sending Treasury prices sharply higher, and steepening the inversion. Treasury yields just hit their lowest point since 2017, with ten-year yields falling as low as 2.27%, light years from where they were in the fourth quarter. Even the 30-year is only at 2.7%.

FINSUM: Yields are going to move in step with the trade war. We think the general trend will be downward given the market anxiety and the fact that the Fed is likely to be more dovish.

(New York)

Ten-year yields are low, very low, compared to where they were just a few months ago. Recently poor news on the trade front has sent yields spiraling lower, all the way down to 2.30%. The speed of the rally in Treasuries also prompts the interesting question of whether China weaponizing its Treasury holdings even matters. Yields have fallen so steeply, and there is so much momentum supporting the bonds, that even if China were to dump its holdings, it is hard to imagine that yields could jump back to even where they were a few months ago.

FINSUM: Let’s say hypothetically that China dumps its Treasuries. How far would ten-year yields rise? Maybe to 2.8%? We wouldn’t even be back to where we were in the fourth quarter, and it is hard to imagine that move having much of an impact on the economy itself.

(New York)

The big rally in ten-year Treasury bonds has created a worrying situation in the bond market—a steepening inversion. Despite the broad based rally, the negative spread between ten-years and three-month yields actually grew, as did the spread between two- and thirty-year bonds. Oil also plummeted 5%, as did the Dollar, a reflection of traders’ bets that the US is likely headed for a downturn and easier monetary policy.

FINSUM: The current inversion could just be a product of markets flows dictated by the trade war. What is worrying is that negative spreads actually widened instead of just staying flat, which adds more weight to the inversion-recession story.