Displaying items by tag: volatility
Hedged equity is an increasingly popular term in investing. But what exactly is hedged equity? How can you use hedged equity in a portfolio? What are examples of hedge equity strategies?...see more on our partner's site
September saw the Vix creep to a 4-month high as the S&P 500 blew off 4.8% of its value. Most investors were hoping for a bounce-back month in October, chalking up September’s poor performance to a checkered history for the opening of autumn. However, they are likely to be remiss as volatility indexes are still climbing. The pullback in September was the largest since March of 2020, when the pandemic began.BofA said that while October is generally a well-performing month when it trails a struggling September, October can drag as well. Debt ceiling negotiations, oil price spikes, and Fed tapering are just a few of the onslaught of headlines which are giving the market fits.
FINSUM: While volatility has yet to hit the peaks of September it is already consistently above its 200-day moving average, which could be a sign of even more volatility to come.
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last week on a panel hosted by the ECB, and relayed his frustration about the ongoing inflation pressures in the US economy. Powell said the economy’s most important concern is getting people vaccinated and containing Covid’s delta variant. Powell said the key inflationary pressures remain supply chain bottlenecks in the US economy. These supply constraints have the U.S.’s key inflationary measure (core personal consumption expenditure) elevated to its highest level in 30 years. The FOMC has raised their expectation for inflation from 3% to 3.7%, and Powell said this could continue into 2022. Powell’s Analysis was backed up by both Japan and the ECB’s respective leaders.
FINSUM: The supply shock to the economy remains as chip shortages still persist. As long as supply chains remain disrupted the unemployment/GDP and inflationary goals of the Fed will remain in conflict.
Chinese regulators have come after everything from internet companies to education platforms, and this has left many investors skittish. Investors that would have maintained their convictions would have been well-suited, as since mid-August Chinese internet companies have bounced. Over this same time frame the MSCI Emerging Market Index, which holds a large share of Chinese companies, has doubled the return in the S&P 500. China’s focus on future regulation will better promote growth moving forward. The structure formed may benefit semiconductor companies, smart manufacturing, alternative energy, machine learning, cloud computing, autonomous vehicles, and other internet-related companies. Finally, Chinese companies have been quick to undue overwrought regulation and long-term regulation will be moderate.
FINSUM: Investors shouldn’t be too fickle with China, don’t spend too much time trying to nail regulatory swells, and embrace the long haul.
A successful 8-month streak has put the market well above expectations, and there are reasons to still be optimistic, but the number of protection plays is growing on Walls Street. Whether it is a slowing economy, rising inflation, spreading delta variant, or tapering tantrum there are lots of reasons to stay protected which is why over $5 billion in inflows are headed to volatility-based protections. Funds like the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) offer a direct hedge against a future of the interest rate market by placing a call on Treasury derivatives. A wider hedge against the ETF like the Simplify Volatility Premierm ETF (SVOL) which can generate a yield from swings in the Cboe Volatility Index. This hedge is less specific than the PFIX but it gives investors a bigger safety net in any of the scenarios above or unforeseen risks in the economy.
FINSUM: Honestly leave the bond hedges to the past as there is no return. Instead, SVOL and PFIX are hedges that will likely clip the Treasury return anyway and provide more relief in case equities go upside down.