Displaying items by tag: rates

(Los Angeles)

Real estate has been weak for several months now. Even back in the summer when the economy and markets appeared to be humming along, real estate was one of the sore spots for investors and the Fed. Well, the state of the market is becoming more apparent as new numbers from November show that existing home sales feel 7% from last year. The drop is the largest year over year fall since May 2011. Sales have declined in every month in 2018 bar one.

FINSUM: The worsening real estate market is a bit of a conundrum given the state of the labor market. Leading indicator?

(New York)

There is a lot of doom and gloom out there right now. The stock market is in major pullback mode over a wide range of fears. One of the main ones is the threat of a recession coming next year. A lot of signs, like the inverted yield curve, are pointing towards an economic reversal. However, according to Barron’s, the reality is that a recession is unlikely. Rather, we will likely just return to the post-Crisis norm of slower, steadier growth (think 2.0-2.5%). A couple of factors will weigh on growth, including higher rates and a fading influence of the most recent tax cuts.

FINSUM: A return to normal growth seems about equally likely to us as a recession. No one really knows. A lot of it may come down to how hawkish the Fed is, as the central bank could easily steer the economy into a recession.

(New York)

Charles Schwab, a major conduit for retail investors’ views of the markets, has just come out very bearish. The broker’s chief investment strategist is full of interesting, and bearish insights for 2019. For instance, she explains that earnings growth estimates are far too high (at 6-8%) and that an earnings recession is likely. Schwab expects a rolling bear, if not a full bear market, to continue. The broker pointed out that nearly 50% of S&P 500 stocks are now already in a bear market (down 20% or more).

FINSUM: It is pretty difficult to find reason to be bullish on shares right now. The economy seems to be past peak, an intractable trade war is growing, and a yield inversion is taking shape. That said, the market loves to climb a wall of worry.

(New York)

There has been a large segment of money managers and investors that have taken a bullish stance against Treasuries. With rates rising and the economy performing well, it stood to reason that yields would keep on rising. However, after a couple of months of brutal stock volatility and worries over a trade war and growth, investors are finally shedding those bearish short positions. The stance was one of the most popular of the year, but the volume of bearish positions has shrunk by two-thirds since from the record it reached in late September.

FINSUM: The ten-year yield now looks more likely to fall than rise given the longer-term economic outlook and trouble in stocks.

(Washington)

Earlier this week it seemed that the market might finally have a reason to believe the Fed might pause its inexorable march higher in rates. That reason was that inflation had dipped below the Fed’s target. Being just a single occurrence, it was a weak-footed hope. Now, new data shows the American consumer is doing well, as retail sales jumped 0.9% in November. The explanation for the jump is that a drop in gasoline prices helped fuel more retail spending.

FINSUM: Consumers are obviously still feeling comfortable, which will give the Fed a bit of comfort about the stage of the cycle.