Displaying items by tag: fixed income

The economy and financial markets have faced potent challenges in 2023. These include concerns of an imminent recession, a hawkish Federal Reserve, stubbornly high inflation, a sputtering banking system, etc. Unlike last year, the price of oil hasn’t been a major headwind as it’s traded between $60 and $70 per barrel for most of the year. 

The situation is now changing as the front month contract for WTI crude oil settled above $90 for the first time this year. Higher oil prices are a negative for the economy and markets as it detracts from consumer spending and contributes to inflationary pressures. Until inflationary pressures fully recede, there is unlikely to be a change in Fed policy. 

So while there has been constructive news on the finaltion front regarding real estate and the labor market, the mild tailwind from lower oil prices is now becoming a headwind. For oil, the major catalyst is on the supply front as OPEC producers have been cutting production in anticipation of an economic slowdown. 

But, demand has been less impaired than anticipated even accounting for the weakening Chinese economy. Another factor supporting demand is that the US is a buyer of crude oil given the need to restock the strategic petroleum reserve. 

Finsum: Crude oil prices moved past $90 per barrel for the first time in 2023. Here are some of the reasons behind its recent strength.

Citigroup conducted a survey of 268 family offices to gather information on their positioning and thoughts on the current market. Overall, the family offices decreased exposure to equities while more than half increased their fixed income allocations. According to Citigroup, it was the most significant change in family office positioning since 2020. 

The bigger trend is that family offices are becoming more conservative given the challenging economic environment. In terms of their biggest concerns, they identify inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and a spike in geopolitical tensions specifically around the US and China.

Currently, the average family office has 16% in fixed income, 12% in cash, and 22% in equities. Even within these allocations, they are focusing on areas with less risk. For equities, it means companies in traditional industries with positive cash flow and attractive valuations. For fixed income, it means a bias towards higher credit quality and shorter duration. 

In total, these family offices that were surveyed control more than $1 trillion in assets. Specifically, the family offices that are adding fixed income exposure have a cumulative total of $568 billion in assets. 

Finsum: Citigroup surveyed 268 family offices to find out their thoughts on the current market. More than half are increasing fixed income allocation and selling equities. 

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with $2.4 trillion under management, is launching a new active fixed income ETF. This marks BlackRock’s 422nd ETF and the second active fixed income ETF to be managed by Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO of global fixed income. 

The launch is also notable because the ETF is similar to its mutual fund offering, the BlackRock Total Return Fund. Both will invest its holdings into a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities. The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.34% while the mutual fund has a 0.45% expense ratio. Notably, the ETF will allow for intraday trading, offer more liquidity, and provide greater transparency of its holdings. 

This is a continuation of a larger trend. Active fixed income ETFs are taking market share from mutual funds and passive fixed income funds. Many asset managers are converting mutual funds into ETFs or dual offerings. 

The primary impetus is increasing comfort with the category from advisors and institutions. Additionally, active fixed income suits the current moment where there seems to be significant opportunity in the space, but headwinds linger due to a hawkish Fed and rising recession risk. The bet is that active managers are better suited to navigate this tricky environment. 

Finsum: Blackrock filed for another active fixed income ETF which is modeled after its very popular BlackRock Total Return Fund.

Money has been pouring into fixed income and money markets as investors look to take advantage of high rates and protect their portfolios from inflation and market volatility. While the advantages are clear, investors should also understand the tax implications especially since there are more complications than equities. 

For one, taxes on interest income must be paid. However, there are some caveats. For instance, an investor can avoid state taxes by investing in a US government security such as Treasuries although federal taxes must be paid. In contrast, no state or federal taxes are paid on interest income from municipal bonds. 

Some investors choose to keep their fixed income investments in a tax-free retirement account. Despite taxes on interest income, fixed income continues to deliver positive, inflation-adjusted returns for investors. However, the tax bill should be considered prior to making these investments especially in high-tax states.

Ultimately, fixed income offers many benefits which investors are eager to capture. In this frenzy and focus on yield, many investors are losing sight that these expectations should be tempered given that the income is taxed. But the challenge is that this ‘penalty’ differs based on every owners’ geography and financial situation. 

Finsum: Fixed income has exploded in popularity due to high rates and recession risk. Yet, many investors are overly focused on the income and taking into account tax considerations.

Most of the attention and chatter in the energy sector have been focused on issues like the price of oil, a potential renaissance for nuclear energy, and whether electric vehicles (EV) will displace gas-powered vehicles. 

However, the proliferation of solar energy is less discussed but in many ways, it could be more impactful in the long-term. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, there were an additional 12 gigawatts of installations in the first-half of 2023. This is a 20% increase from last year’s first-half.

A major factor is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which boosted subsidies for home and corporate solar projects. It’s also boosting the domestic production of solar panels. In 2022, there was production of 10.6 gigawatts of domestic capacity, but this is projected to increase to 108.5 gigawatts by 2026. It’s also notable that capital expenditures in the solar industry were bigger than that of oil & gas last year. 

According to the industry group, the solar industry in the US is projected to grow 15% annually. It sees the full-scale benefits of the IRA to start hitting the industry by late 2024. In terms of challenges, it identifies interconnection of grids and cost-prohibitive batteries as bottlenecks for future growth. 

Finsum: A trend in the energy sector is the boom in solar due to lower costs and the Inflation Reduction Act. In particular, domestic manufacturing is a major beneficiary..