Displaying items by tag: fixed income

Inflows into fixed income ETFs have continued despite major losses in bonds over the last couple of months. Further, there is no clear indication when the tide will turn given expectations of high supply in the coming months and ambiguity about the economy, inflation, and Fed. 

The most liquid and popular bond ETF, the iShares 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT) has had $17.9 billion inflows so far this year. Assets under management have swelled to $41 billion as well. The biggest driver of flows is due to institutions, pension funds, and family offices that have a mandate regarding fixed income exposure.

Another factor driving demand is that yields are at their highest level in 16 years due to the Fed’s rate hikes. A longer-term trend that supports fixed income flows is that many investors and wealth managers are increasingly favoring ETFs over mutual funds due to lower costs and better liquidity. 

ETFs could also be better suited for volatile environments given that they can be used to harvest tax losses. Additionally intraday liquidity means that exposures can be shifted more easily to achieve precise targeting. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs continue to experience healthy flows despite significant volatility.

Stephen H. Dover, the Chief Market Strategist of Franklin Templeton, shared his thoughts on the rise in bond yields, and whether it should be feared. Higher yields do push up borrowing costs for corporations and households. 

And as long as yields stay elevated, global growth will be lower, profit expectations are squeezed, and there is greater risk to equities and credit markets. However, Dover attributes most of the increase in yields to rising term premiums rather than inflation or increased supply.

Term premiums are the additional yield that investors demand to hold onto longer-duration securities. Long-term rates are composed of 3 factors - inflation expectations, the neutral short-term interest rate path, and term premium. 

Since mid-July, the yield on the 10-year has advanced by more than 100 basis points. In contrast, the yield on the 2-year note is only up about 35 basis points over the same period. Notably, inflation expectations have moderated during that time frame as well, indicating that term premiums are to explain the surge in long-term yields. 

A major reason for the rise in term premiums is the removal of the ‘Fed put’ of the past decade, when central bank intervention was a constant through asset purchases and forward guidance. Overall, increased risk and volatility for long-duration bonds mean that investors need to be paid higher yields. 

Finsum: JPMorgan shared its Q4 fixed income outlook. Its two base-case scenarios are a recession and a period of below-trend growth. 

Yields on long-term Treasuries have broken out to 16 year highs. This has unleashed considerable volatility for bonds amid uncertainty about the economy’s trajectory and the Fed’s next move.

At the same time, many investors are looking to take advantage of this weakness and increase their exposure to the asset class especially with yields at such attractive levels. However, the current environment may be more suitable for active fixed income ETFs like the T. Rowe Price QM US Bond ETF (TAGG) rather than the typical passive options. 

Active managers have more freedom and flexibility when it comes to credit quality and duration, meaning they are able to take advantage of market inefficiencies. And, there are likely more inefficiencies in the current environment due to the cloudy economic and monetary outlook.

As an example, TAGG invests in investment-grade fixed income securities, including corporate and government debt and mortgage and asset-backed securities across all sorts of maturities. Additionally, TAGG still retains many of the benefits of passive strategies such as low costs and diversification. 

Finsum: The current environment is unusually uncertain and volatile for fixed income investors. Here is why active strategies are a better fit for the current environment.

2023 has been the year of active fixed income based on inflows and new issues. Nearly every asset manager has been jumping on the trend as we’ve seen launches from Blackrock, Capital Group, and Vanguard in the last couple of months.

The latest to join the fray is JPMorgan which announced the JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND) which will trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF will invest in a diversified portfolio of intermediate and long-term debt securities with a focus on securitized debt products. It seeks to differentiate itself with an emphasis on value through careful security selection and aims to outperform the benchmark, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, over a 3 to 5 year time frame. In addition, JBND has a cost basis of 30 basis points.

Active fixed income is benefitting from the current volatility and uncertainty regarding monetary policy. There’s also a fundamental shift in the wealth management space as institutions and advisors are more familiar with these types of products vs mutual funds. And, many younger advisors and investors prefer the ease and familiarity of the ETF structure vs mutual funds. Therefore, asset managers are introducing ETF versions of their most popular active fixed income funds. 

Finsum: Active fixed income continues to be a hot space with JPMorgan launching another offering. Here are some reasons for the category’s growing popularity.

2023 has been a volatile year for bonds due to a better than expected economy and hawkish Federal Reserve. Yet, inflows into bond funds are up 38% compared to this time last year at $235 billion according to Blackrock.

The firm sees fixed income demand driven by high yields and the desire to reduce portfolio volatility. Currently, the 10 year Treasury is yielding 4.6% which is 90 basis points higher than at the start of the year. In contrast, the 10 year was yielding around 1% in October 2021.

Currently, the central bank is in a ‘wait and see’ mode regarding further hikes and the duration of the current cycle. Wall Street analysts anticipate that flows should further pick up once it’s clear that the tightening cycle is over as they look to lock in yields at these levels. 

In terms of fixed income ETFs, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) has been the biggest beneficiary with $17 billion of net inflows YTD despite a 13% drop. However, there is less enthusiasm for riskier fixed income due to concerns that a recession could lead to a spike in defaults as inflows into lower-rated bond funds have lagged. 

Finsum: Fixed income inflows have been strong all year despite considerable volatility and uncertainty about the economy and Fed.