The rising rate environment has been brutal for REIT stocks with double-digit losses in 2022. In 2023, the sector saw decent gains in the first-half of the year, however these gains have been wiped out amid the breakout in longer-term yields. 

However, this could be setting up a contrarian opportunity especially as the odds of a ‘soft landing’ continue to inch higher. Inflation is moderating, while the economy continues to modestly expand as evidenced by the September jobs report and upwards revisions to the July and August payroll data. In addition, Q2 GDP was better than expected, and consumer sentiment continues to move higher.

In essence, a soft landing scenario would be bullish for residential REITs. It implies no significant spike in defaults, while lower rates would also lead to a generous tailwind for the sector. In contrast, commercial REITs are facing more significant challenges and have more structural issues especially with offices and retail. 

To be clear, the odds of a soft landing have increased, but it’s far from a certainty. Some threats to this outlook include a resurgence of inflation or the economy suddenly deteriorating due to pressure from higher rates. 

Finsum: The odds of a soft landing have moved up higher after a recent spate of positive economic data. Here’s why residential REITs would outperform in such a scenario.

Alternative investments encompass everything excluding equities, fixed income, and cash or money markets. According to Angie Spielman,the founding partner and a financial advisor at Manhattan West, this is a great time to invest in alternatives, and she recommends a 33% allocation for her clients assuming that it fits their risk profile. 

Demand for alternatives is growing given that the asset class outperformed in 2022 while both stocks and bonds posted negative returns. Additionally, it’s proven to be a source of positive returns and diversification. 

Spielman sees the new benchmark portfolio as being equally divided between equities, bonds, and alternatives. Although, she warns that this mix is not appropriate for more risk-averse clients. She also believes that private markets will outperform public markets over the next decade. Within the asset class, she favors private equity, venture capital, real estate, and private debt. 

In addition to benefiting existing clients, providing access to these types of investments can also attract prospects who are more risk-tolerant and seeking diversification. She recommends easing new clients into these types of investments with smaller sums at the beginning. Alternative investments do typically have higher fees and tend to have less liquidity and transparency than traditional options. 

Finsum: Alternative investments are growing in popularity and offer specific benefits to advisors and clients. 

2023 has been the year of active fixed income based on inflows and new issues. Nearly every asset manager has been jumping on the trend as we’ve seen launches from Blackrock, Capital Group, and Vanguard in the last couple of months.

The latest to join the fray is JPMorgan which announced the JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND) which will trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF will invest in a diversified portfolio of intermediate and long-term debt securities with a focus on securitized debt products. It seeks to differentiate itself with an emphasis on value through careful security selection and aims to outperform the benchmark, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, over a 3 to 5 year time frame. In addition, JBND has a cost basis of 30 basis points.

Active fixed income is benefitting from the current volatility and uncertainty regarding monetary policy. There’s also a fundamental shift in the wealth management space as institutions and advisors are more familiar with these types of products vs mutual funds. And, many younger advisors and investors prefer the ease and familiarity of the ETF structure vs mutual funds. Therefore, asset managers are introducing ETF versions of their most popular active fixed income funds. 

Finsum: Active fixed income continues to be a hot space with JPMorgan launching another offering. Here are some reasons for the category’s growing popularity.

2023 has been a volatile year for bonds due to a better than expected economy and hawkish Federal Reserve. Yet, inflows into bond funds are up 38% compared to this time last year at $235 billion according to Blackrock.

The firm sees fixed income demand driven by high yields and the desire to reduce portfolio volatility. Currently, the 10 year Treasury is yielding 4.6% which is 90 basis points higher than at the start of the year. In contrast, the 10 year was yielding around 1% in October 2021.

Currently, the central bank is in a ‘wait and see’ mode regarding further hikes and the duration of the current cycle. Wall Street analysts anticipate that flows should further pick up once it’s clear that the tightening cycle is over as they look to lock in yields at these levels. 

In terms of fixed income ETFs, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) has been the biggest beneficiary with $17 billion of net inflows YTD despite a 13% drop. However, there is less enthusiasm for riskier fixed income due to concerns that a recession could lead to a spike in defaults as inflows into lower-rated bond funds have lagged. 

Finsum: Fixed income inflows have been strong all year despite considerable volatility and uncertainty about the economy and Fed.

At one time, direct indexing was only available and viable for ultra high net worth investors. This is now changing due to technology which is simplifying the process, the sharp decline in trading commissions, and the fractionalization of shares. 

With direct indexing, investors and advisors can replicate any index in a managed account. Instead of buying a mutual fund or an ETF, an investor buys the actual components of an index. This comes with added benefits as they can tweak or adjust the holdings of the index to suit their own inclinations or unique situation. It also means that these investors can harvest tax losses which can then be used to offset taxes from capital gains in another part of the portfolio. 

With direct indexing, tax loss harvesting can lead to better performance especially in more volatile years for the market. Even in up years, some segments of the market may finish in the red which provides opportunities to harvest losses to offset gains. 

Direct indexing is particularly useful for investors who have strong beliefs or unique financial situations. For instance, an investor who does not want to invest in tobacco companies can eliminate these from an index and choose another stock which has similar factor scores to ensure that the benchmark continues to be tracked.

Finsum: Direct indexing is an effective strategy to lower tax bills but is only accessible for a tiny segment of investors . Now due to technology and lower commissions, it’s available to nearly everyone.