Nuveen believes that real estate is an integral asset for multi-asset portfolios especially during periods of volatility and the recent tight correlation between stocks and bonds. Within real estate, the firm favors private real estate due to attractive yields, diversification, and uncorrelated returns. 

According to the firm, private real estate outperforms during bear markets because prices are based on real transactions rather than public markets. This dampens volatility especially during periods of market stress when public equities can go haywire. 

In terms of both public and private real estate, Nuveen favors the industrial sector due to expectations of continued growth in e-commerce and investments in logistics near urban locations. Another factor supporting growth is supply chain diversification which is boosting demand for space near ports on the East Coast and the US/Mexico border. 

It’s also constructive on healthcare, residential, and self-storage. Within the public REIT space, the gaming sector is in favor due to high dividends and strong cash flows. Another tailwind has been consolidation in the space which is leading to upward pressure on rents. 

Nuveen also believes that we are in the final innings of the Fed’s hiking cycle due to inflation moderating which could be a major catalyst for the sector going into next year.

Finsum: Nuveen is bullish on real estate particularly for the industrial, healthcare, and residential sectors. Also, it believes that we are close to the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle. 

Stephen H. Dover, the Chief Market Strategist of Franklin Templeton, shared his thoughts on the rise in bond yields, and whether it should be feared. Higher yields do push up borrowing costs for corporations and households. 

And as long as yields stay elevated, global growth will be lower, profit expectations are squeezed, and there is greater risk to equities and credit markets. However, Dover attributes most of the increase in yields to rising term premiums rather than inflation or increased supply.

Term premiums are the additional yield that investors demand to hold onto longer-duration securities. Long-term rates are composed of 3 factors - inflation expectations, the neutral short-term interest rate path, and term premium. 

Since mid-July, the yield on the 10-year has advanced by more than 100 basis points. In contrast, the yield on the 2-year note is only up about 35 basis points over the same period. Notably, inflation expectations have moderated during that time frame as well, indicating that term premiums are to explain the surge in long-term yields. 

A major reason for the rise in term premiums is the removal of the ‘Fed put’ of the past decade, when central bank intervention was a constant through asset purchases and forward guidance. Overall, increased risk and volatility for long-duration bonds mean that investors need to be paid higher yields. 

Finsum: JPMorgan shared its Q4 fixed income outlook. Its two base-case scenarios are a recession and a period of below-trend growth. 

In a CNBC interview, CAIS CEO Matt Brown commented on the alternative asset market. He believes that a major factor behind the current growth of the category is due to increased access, highlighting venture capital, hedge funds, private real estate, and private equity. 

He forecasts that alternative exposure will continue to increase among investors and advisors along with greater access. He also believes that the traditional 60/40 portfolio will shift and become a 50/30/20 mix between stocks, bonds, and alternatives. This reallocation will result in $10 trillion moving into alternatives over the next few years according to Brown. 

CEO Rob Sechan of NewEdge Wealth also added that alternative investments provide diversification and a better chance of achieving targeted returns especially in an environment of falling returns for stocks and bonds. 

He believes that consistent private market performance is due to greater operating and financial leverage while public securitie performance is too economically sensitive. Investors in private markets are also able to take advantage of dislocations in public markets by buying discounted assets with a long duration during selloffs. Recent examples include the European debt crisis and Silicon Valley Bank. 

Finsum: Alternative investments are becoming a major asset class and increasingly a larger allocation for some investors and advisors.

The IEA issued its outlook for the energy sector. Overall, global demand remains strong with daily demand at 101.9 million barrels, a 2.3 million barrel per day increase from 2022. In recent months, there has been some signs of North American gasoline demand declining but this has been offset by strong demand from Asia. For next year, it forecasts a smaller increase of 900,000 barrels per day.

Global oil production is expected at 101.6 million barrels per day. This is a 1,500,000 barrel per day increase from last year despite less production from OPEC+. So far, there is no impact on oil production from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Yet, there is still a daily shortfall which exacerbates the impact of an escalation in geopolitical risk with the gap being made up by inventories.

The attacks did result in a $3 to $4 spike in oil prices, although prices quickly stabilized and remain off recent highs. Currently, there is a push and pull between upwards pressure on the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia pull back on production while higher interest rates threaten the demand outlook. So far, demand has proven to be resilient contrary to expectations at the beginning of the year. 

Finsum: The IEA issued its report on the oil market. It sees a small shortfall between global supply and demand which is being filled by inventories. 

As the year comes to a close, it presents an opportune moment for financial advisors to revisit strategies and offer valuable advice to clients. A timely topic is tax loss harvesting. And direct indexing is becoming a popular way for investors to accomplish this. Therefore, now is a great time to consider introducing the concept of direct indexing to your clients.

The Value of Tax Loss Harvesting

Tax loss harvesting is a technique that can reduce taxable income by selling securities that have incurred a loss. As we approach year-end, this tax-saving tactic may be appropriate for some of your clients, yet you need a convenient way to make these trades without upsetting their entire portfolio. Direct indexing allows you to accomplish this task.

Direct Indexing: No Longer Just for the Elite

Direct indexing, which involves buying individual stocks directly rather than through a fund, enhances the ability to tax loss harvest. While it's not a new concept, it's becoming more accessible to a broader range of investors. As author Medora Lee pointed out in her recent article in USA Today, "(direct indexing) was once mostly reserved for the affluent with at least $1 million to invest." But things are changing. "With better technology and zero- or low-commission trading now the norm, more people can use direct indexing."

Embracing the potential of direct indexing and tax loss harvesting is another way to demonstrate your value to your clients.