Displaying items by tag: yields

(New York)

Safe 5% yields sound very enticing right now don’t they? Well, they are actually not as hard to find as you think if you take a broader perspective. That perspective is to look at standard municipal bonds and examine their real-world yields, or how they compare to taxable bonds. For instance, for a couple living in California with a $250k per year income, a municipal bond yielding 3.0% is equivalent to a taxable bond yielding a whopping 5.8%. This is because of the new tax system brought in by Republicans. One muni expert comments that “I would argue that munis are more attractive than they’ve ever been because, with the loss of various deductions, including SALT, one’s taxable income is higher than it’s ever been”.

FINSUM: This is a very good insight and one to which HNW individuals and advisors need to pay attention. Once investors really come around to this, it could spark a muni bond run.

(New York)

If you are worried that much higher rates will cause an exodus from the stock market, you are not alone. Many advisors across the country are closely watching the markets to see signs of a mass departure. The big worry is that even three-year Treasury bills now have yields which exceed the dividend yield of the S&P 500. So while for the last several years the theme was “there is no alternative”, now there are some very good ones, which could scuttle the market.

FINSUM: The good news here is that the so-called “Great Rotation” into stocks never really materialized, so there is not going to be a great rotation the other way, or at least everyone hopes so.

(New York)

Investors who own bank stocks or ETFs have probably been shocked over the last couple of days. The financial sector lost 4% yesterday alone. Many may be wondering why. While no one is quite sure, there do seem to be some concrete reasons, and not just because of the Italian drama. The bigger culprit is likely because of tumbling US Treasury yields, which have fallen from well above 3%, to well below 2.9%. Banks stocks have historically performed poorly in periods of flattening yield curves. Lower rates and yields hurt banks’ net interest margin.

FINSUM: US banks have very little exposure to Italy, so there is no reason for any meltdown fears, yet the sector has reacted almost overly strongly. It seems the only explanation has to do with US yields falling.

(New York)

Over the last few weeks the US stock market had looked strong. Stocks had shrugged off a number of geopolitical disturbances with relative ease. However, suddenly, a lot of macro signs are looking poor. The combination of European political turmoil, weaker growth, and a sudden drop in US bond yields, are all coming together in a package that shows things are not as rosy as they might have seemed a few weeks ago. While European sovereign spreads are widening to the largest since 2013, US Treasury yields are plunging and are now well below 2.9%.

FINSUM: This might be the start of a very rough summer for markets, and how fitting that it all began on Memorial day. While some might say “It’s just Italy”, Europe has proved enough to scuttle global markets in the past (see the summers of 2011 and 2012).

(Madrid)

This is Europe week for financial markets. Italy is currently engulfed in a political, and increasingly markets, crisis. Now the panic and political gloom is spreading to Spain. The country’s Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, is set to face a no confidence vote and the outcome is very uncertain. Accordingly, Spain’s sovereign yields have been rising alongside Italy’s. The no confidence vote will be held on Friday and comes following a ruling of corruption against the center-right party of which Rajoy is leader.

FINSUM: Southern Europe is back in the news this week after a six-year hiatus. We don’t think anything major will be caused by Spain, but the Italian situation is very dicey.