Displaying items by tag: fixed income

In its midyear outlook for the fixed income market, UBS struck a bullish tone on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) but sees most of the fixed income market staying within the range from the first half of the year.

It believes the Fed will keep hiking rates until a terminal rate of 6% given the resilience of the economy. It ascribes the recent weakness in fixed income as a result of the market calibrating to this new reality rather than a recession in the second-half of the year.

Therefore, the market consensus that 2023 would be the year of fixed income has proven to be incorrect. Until the Fed begins cutting rates, fixed income markets face a significant headwind especially shorter-duration notes. Still, UBS remains cautious that as savings get depleted, higher rates could start to eat into consumer spending and other forms of economic activity. 

Given this challenging environment, UBS recommends MBS given the underlying strength of the housing market which has remained stable due to low supply and demand driven by demographics despite substantially higher mortgage rates. 

Finsum: UBS shared its midyear outlook for the fixed income market. It shared its economic outlook and why it’s bullish on MBS.

Blackrock’s Q2 earnings report gave some insights on the performance of its various funds in addition to commentary from its management team. Overall, the asset manager exceeded analysts’ consensus expectations with $9.28 in earnings per share vs $8.45. Compared to last year’s Q2, net income was up 25% while revenue was down 1%. Total assets under management climbed to $9.4 trillion.

However, the company did miss analysts’ estimates when it came to inflows into its equity and fixed income funds at $57 billion vs expectations of $81 billion. Active funds were particularly weak with $9.7 billion of outflows from active equity and $3.7 billion from active fixed income.

These disappointments have weighed on Blackrock’s stock price which has underperformed the S&P 500 YTD. Yet, the company remains confident that future growth will come from active fixed income. According to Blackrock President Rob Kaptio, “There is finally income to be earned in the fixed-income market.” He sees higher yields as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” and that are supportive of inflows into its lineup of active fixed income products. 

Finsum: In Q2, Blackrock saw negative inflows into active fixed income and equity funds. Yet, the company continues to see these products as key to its long-term growth.

In an article for TheStreet, David Dierking discusses two ETFs offering investors weekly dividends. It’s an innovative offering by SoFi as most equities pay out dividends on a quarterly basis, while fixed income ETFs offer monthly payouts. 

In contrast, the SoFi Weekly Dividend ETF (WKLY) and the SoFi Weekly Income ETF (TGIF) are structured to give investors a weekly payout. WKLY is made up of a blend of equities and fixed income. It invests primarily in dividend-paying companies with a market cap of over $1 billion. Some of its largest holdings include Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson, and JPMorgan Chase. It pays out $0.02 per share on a weekly basis which is a 2.2% annual yield. 

TGIF invests primarily in high-yield fixed income and is considered a bond ETF. It mostly invests in short and intermediate-term duration and also has an active management structure which gives it wider latitude to take advantage of opportunities in the credit space. It pays out $0.07 per share on a weekly basis and has an annualized yield of 3.8%. Since inception, it had one dividend hike from $0.05 per share to $0.07.

FinSum: SOFI has introduced an equity fund and fixed income fund which offers weekly dividends. Here are some important considerations.

Charles Schwab shared its midyear outlook for fixed income. It notes that the asset class has been unusually volatile despite not changing much in terms of fundamentals and monetary policy.  

In the second-half of the year, Schwab sees Treasuries gradually strengthening, particularly on the short-end of the curve. So far, longer-term Treasuries have started to outperform, while shorter-term notes have weakened due to the Fed’s continued hikes. 

However, the firm sees strength across the board in response to slowing inflation and the end of the Fed’s rate hikes due to a weakening global economy. While it anticipates a pause in Fed policy imminently, it believes that the next rate cut cycle will also quickly begin as rates at these levels are quite restrictive especially in an environment of lower inflation.

Further, Schwab believes that longer-term trends are also supportive of fixed income given that fiscal policy will be contractionary, the manufacturing sector is in a recession, wage growth is slowing, and key drivers of inflation such as food, used cars, and energy have also normalized. Loosening Fed policy and falling inflation will be strong tailwinds for fixed income. 

Finsum: Charles Schwab shared its second-half outlook for fixed income. Overall, the firm is bullish and believes that underlying trends of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and inflation are supportive.

Um, you might want to duck for cover.   Why? Well, because of the explosive growth experienced by the ETF industry, according to zacks.com.

 Against the backdrop of a burgeoning stock market, it’s gathering mucho assets. The fact that investors sunk about $200.6 billion in new assets into U.S.-listed ETFs in the first half of the year, didn’t exactly hurt.  

Pacing the field was U.S. fixed income ETFs with inflows of $86.7 billion, according to etf.com. Nipping at its heels was $52.9 billion in U.S. equity ETFs and $48.5 billion in international equity ETFs.

Meantime, almost assuredly considerably more on the money than many weather prognosticators, the macro outlook for core fixed income is thumbs up, according to sageadvisory.com. Over approaching quarters, attractive yield carry is tag teaming with peaking rates skews returns to the upside. Fed timing aside, market and dot plots each have rates much lower over the oncoming year or two. What’s more, yield carry looks as good as it has in 15 years.