Displaying items by tag: fixed income

At the VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium, Todd Rosenbluth hosted a conversation between Stephen Laipply, the global co-head of iShares fixed income ETFs and Anmol Sinha, fixed income investment director at Capital Group. The conversation spanned a wide array of topics regarding the advantages of investing in fixed-income through ETFs.

Both also spoke of the recent growth in active fixed income ETF offerings, and why they are bullish on the category going forward. However, they rejected the binary of being an active or a passive investor and instead see a role for both strategies in a portfolio.

Active fixed income ETFs allow investors and advisors to better achieve specific goals such as exposure to a certain segment of the market or take advantage of market inefficiencies. Both are in favor of pairing an active ETF with a passive one to achieve ‘total portfolio exposure’. 

Fixed income ETFs are outpacing equity ETFs in terms of inflows over the last couple of years due to yields at their highest level in decades and a shaky economic outlook. Within the fixed income ETF universe, active strategies are seeing the most growth as they have outperformed amid recent volatility and advisors and wealth managers are becoming increasingly comfortable with the asset class.

Finsum: At the Vettafi Symposium, there was a discussion centered around fixed income ETFs and their future outlook. Regarding active vs passive ETFs, there was agreement that both are complementary rather than competing.

After a rough 2022 for fixed income, 2023 has seen the asset class eke out modest gains. But, it hasn’t been smooth sailing especially in recent months as most of the gains have been wiped out amid a deluge of positive economic data which is increasing the odds that the Fed’s rate hikes are not done and increases the risk of inflation re-igniting.

However, this hasn’t slowed inflows into fixed income ETFs. According to ETF.com’s Michelle Lodge, the major reasons are higher yields, increased awareness from advisors and institutional investors, and continued uneasiness about the macro environment. In fact, inflows into fixed income ETFs are outpacing inflows into equity ETFs. 

Many believe there is a virtuous cycle at work. Fixed income ETFs are increasing liquidity which in turn, is leading to more institutional money flowing into the asset class. The virtuous cycle could pick up more velocity with active fixed income growing in popularity as many of these funds look for opportunities in less liquid areas of various durations and credit quality. 

Overall, the popularity of fixed income ETFs is a major development in 2023 even despite a volatile couple of years for bonds. 

FinSum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing strong inflows in 2023. This can be attributed to higher yields, a shaky macro outlook, and strong demand from advisors and institutional investors.

At the latest FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made some headlines when he struck a dovish tone despite resuming its normal schedule of quarter-point rate hikes. He also slightly upped his assessment of the economy declaring it growing at a ‘moderate’ pace while it has been described as growing at a ‘modest’ pace previously. 

In terms of fixed income, the asset class initially saw a decent rally due to many investors interpreting Powell’s dovishness as an indication that the Fed is in the final stages of its hiking campaign. But, these gains were quickly given back with yields spiking higher following the stronger than expected GDP print which came in at 2.4% vs expectations of 1.6%. 

Following this print, odds of the Fed cutting rates in the first-half of 2024 declined, and many market forecasters pushed back or revised thier prediction of a recession as well. With the economy robust despite higher rates, it’s likley that rates stay elevated for longer. Adding to the weakness was unemployment claims coming in lower than expected, adding to evidence that the labor market is re-accelerating following a period of softness. 

As a result, Treasury yields spiked hihger and are now approaching their 52-week highs.

Finsum: Fixed-income enjoyed a nice rally following the dovish FOMC meeting. But, the asset class weakened following a stronger than expected GDP print and lower than expected unemployment claims. 

Cerulli Associates conducted a survey of ETF issuers which revealed some interesting findings. Already we are seeing fixed income ETFs gaining market share and seeing a surge of inflows due to higher yields and an uncertain economic outlook, but issuers anticipate fixed income ETFs to continue to outpace equity ETFs in coming years.

Within the fixed income ETF universe, they are particularly bullish on active fixed income. This is different from equities where passive funds dominate active in terms of inflows. But, active fixed income funds have a better track record of outperformance. Further, they are able to take advantage of more opportunities in terms of duration and credit quality as compared to passive fixed income funds, leading to better performance. 

According to the survey, issuers expect growth in fixed income ETFs to be driven by institutional advisors and increased familiarity from financial advisors. Based on the findings, Cerulli recommends firms interested in active fixed income products to look for categories with few competitors to offer funds with low fees and attractive pricing. The firm also believes that many fixed income ETF issuers are failing to differentiate their product.

Finsum: Cerulli Associates conducted a survey of ETF issuers and came out with some interesting findings regarding passive and active fixed income funds.

What scent are they picking up on? The lay out: they want to leverage climbing interest rates, which are tugging the total in MMFs past $5tn. That said, many members of that pack were ready to segue into fixed income – when investors felt gob smack sure that yields would sidestep taking a hit by additional action on the Fed’s part, said Blackrock, according to ft.com.

“There is finally income to be earned in the fixed income market and we are expecting a resurgence in demand,” said Rob Kapito, president.* “There are trillions . . . that are ready, when people feel rates have peaked, to flood the market and we need to position ourselves to capture that.”

Like a boxer holding his own despite absorbing more than his share of a pummeling, while the U.S. economy continues to hold tough, when it comes to core fixed income, the macro outlook’s looking up, according to sageadvisory.com.

Over the upcoming quarters, a cocktail of appealing yield carry and escalating returns rates skews returns north.