Displaying items by tag: fixed income

In an article for ThinkAdvisor, Dinah Wisenberg Brin discussed a recent bullish commentary on various segments of the fixed income market from John Hancock’s co-chief investment strategist Matthew Miskin. 

Miskin sees the current inverted yield curve as due to normalize in the coming months as the Federal Reserve embarks on a cutting cycle given the firm’s view that the economy should continue to decelerate along with cooling inflation. This will create a bond ‘bull steepener’ as short-term rates decline.

It sees a recession materializing over the next couple of quarters which would be a positive tailwind for fixed income. He sees opportunities in intermediate duration bonds which historically have performed the best following yield curve inversions. Further, he sees value in the space given that the average investment-grade, intermediate bond portfolio is trading at 90 cents on the dollar with a 5% yield. 

Miskin is also bullish on municipal bonds given historically attractive yields of 7% on a ta-equivalent basis for the highest earners. In terms of equities, the firm is not a believer in the current stock market rally given weakness in earnings and its expectations of a further softening of the economic picture. 

Finsum: John Hancock’s co-chief investment strategist is bullish on fixed income with a particular focus on intermediate duration and municipal debt.

In an article for Dividend.com, Aaron Levitt discussed why active fixed income funds have outperformed passive fixed income funds. 

The majority of active equity funds underperform their industry benchmarks. Therefore, it’s not surprising that these have dominated in terms of inflows. 

But, it’s a different story in fixed income. Recent research from JPMorgan shows that active fixed income has outperformed passive. Some of the reasons for this is that passive funds are overweight with firms and entities that have the most debt. 

Active funds have wider latitude and can find opportunities in various parts of the market. They also are able to take positions in different parts of the capital structure. The absence of passive funds in these spaces also leads to more favorable valuations. Many active funds are also able to take advantage of foreign debt and high-yield fixed income. 

As a result, inflows into active fixed income have been growing at a faster pace than inflows into passive fixed income. More inflows into active fixed income should also lead to increased liquidity in many parts of the fixed income space.

Overall, active funds have failed to outperform passive ones in the equity space but have done so in fixed income.

Finsum: Recent research shows that active fixed income has outperformed passive fixed income. This is contrary to many investors’ expectations given the outperformance of passive equity funds vs active equity funds.

Fixed income ETFs are seeing a surge of inflows over the past year given higher rates and an uncertain economic and monetary outlook. Blackrock is a pioneer in the space and has $800 billion in assets under management in its fixed income ETFs as of the end of the first quarter.

Now, the asset manager is setting a goal of $2.5 trillion by the end of the decade in assets in its fixed income ETFs. These comments were made by Salim Ramji, Blackrock’s global head of ETFs and Index Investments at its Investor Day earlier this week and were covered by Shanny Basar for Markets Media Group. 

He sees the line between passive and active continuing to blur as investors demand more customization and scale. Currently, Blackrock manages $5.9 trillion in assets. Its ETF division, iShares, has $3.1 trillion in assets but accounts for more than 90% of revenue growth. In total, it offers 1,300 ETFs which is more than double that of any other company. Overall, Ramji sees annual ETF asset growth in the double-digits and revenue growth of single-digits to continue as well. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are booming due to an uncertain economic outlook and the highest yields in decades. Blackrock is targeting a tripling of its assets in its fixed income ETFs by the end of the decade.

For VettaFi’s ETFTrends Channel, Nick Peters-Golden discusses why active fixed income is the best way for investors to take advantage of higher yields. Investors should be discriminating when it comes to selecting fixed income instruments due to challenges like the inverted yield curve and the lack of real yields in many areas.

The overall climate is becoming more favorable to fixed income with the Fed finished or in the final innings of its hiking cycle, while inflation continues to moderate. However, investors should favor certain categories.

The best opportunities from a risk and reward perspective are in corporate credit and global, high-yield. Active fixed income funds offer investors the opportunity to increase exposure to these parts of the market, while avoiding less attractive parts.

According to Peters-Golden, active fixed income allows a bottom-up approach to investing which will outperform index-based funds. And, this judiciousness is more necessary in the current environment given the wide dispersion in quality and yields. 

For instance, active corporate credit funds are able to outperform, because they are allocating to firms with strong balance sheets, while corporate credit index funds are taking a one size fits all approach. 

Finsum: Trends are improving for bonds, but investors need to remain selective given the unique nature of the cycle. Active fixed income allows increased allocation to areas with better fundamentals and avoids ones where the risk-reward is not attractive.

In a recent Bloomberg article, Katherine Greenfield covered strength in high-yield fixed income ETFs on the back of the equity rally and growing optimism that the US will evade a recession, while inflation gradually decelerates. Initially, strength in equities was confined to the tech sector but has now broadened out to the rest of the market.

Another indication that the odds of a soft landing continue to move higher is that there was more than $2 billion of inflows, last week, into the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF which has $17 billion in assets. This was the largest inflow into any fixed income ETF over that period and the most since November 2020.

Strength in high-yield fixed income is counterintuitive due to several downgrades and stresses in areas like regional banks and commercial real estate. However, investors seem to be looking past these issues and focusing on improvements on the economic and inflation front. 

Overall, high-yield fixed income is up about 4% YTD, following a 11% drop in 2022. Investors also seem eager to lock in high rates as futures markets indicate that the Fed is going to pause it's hiking campaign, while many expect it to start cutting rates by the end of the year.

Finsum: High-yield fixed income ETFs are seeing major inflows despite an assortment of risks. Many investors believe these risks are priced in, while recent news on the economy and inflation have been bullish for the asset class.