Displaying items by tag: fixed income

UBS shared its outlook on fixed income and high yield credit in a strategy piece. Overall, the bank is moderately bullish on the asset class, especially at the short-end of the curve, but doesn’t believe returns will be as strong as the first-half of the year.

Overall, it attributes strength in the riskier parts of the fixed income universe to a stronger than expected US economy which has kept the default rate low. This has been sufficient to offset the headwind of the Fed’s ultra-hawkish monetary policy. 

The bank attributes the economy’s resilience to lingering effects of supportive fiscal and monetary policy and the strong labor market. It’s a different type of recovery than what we have seen in the past where financial assets inflated while the real economy struggled. 

However, UBS believes that the default rate should continue to tick higher so it recommends a neutral positioning. It also sees a correlation between equity market volatility and high-yield credit. While this was a tailwind in the first-half of the year, it believes that it should be a headwind for the remainder of the year given high valuations. 

Overall, it sees a more challenging environment for high-yield credit and recommends sticking to the short-end of the curve to minimize duration and default risk.

Finsum: In a strategy piece on high-yield credit, UBS digs into its strong performance in the first-half of the year, and why it expects a more challenging second-half. 

We are seeing a flurry of active fixed income ETF launches over the past few months. While it’s nearly settled that with equities, passive tends to outperform active strategies, active fixed income strategies have performed better than passive fixed income especially in recent years. 

Further, there is considerable uncertainty around the economy regarding rates, inflation, and a potential recession which could lead to more opportunities for active managers. Additionally, active managers have more latitude in terms of duration and credit quality.

Therefore, money is flowing into active fixed income ETFs from mutual funds and passive bond funds. For Barron’s, Lauren Foster discusses whether these inflows into active fixed ETFs will continue or is it just a short-term fad. 

Money is likely to also flow into active fixed income ETFs from active fixed income mutual funds given that the ETFs offer several benefits such as lower fees, more transparency, and intraday liquidity. The younger generation of investors also tend to favor ETFs rather than mutual funds due to higher comfort levels and an understanding of how high fees can impact long-term performance. 

However, the ultimate factor is whether these ETFs will continue to deliver strong returns relative to passive fixed income ETFs and active fixed income mutual funds. So far, they seem to be offering the best of both worlds to investors. 

Finsum: A major theme in 2023 has been the rise of active fixed income ETFs. But, there is considerable doubt whether these will gain traction and are better than passive fixed income ETFs or active fixed income mutual funds.

Strive Asset Management, an upstart competitor to Blackrock and Vanguard, is launching its first fixed income ETFs. Strive is based in Ohio and was founded in 2022 by Vivek Ramaswamy who is now running for President in the Republican Primary. Ramaswamy resigned from the firm earlier this year to focus on his political ambitions, but Strive’s mission and his political campaign clearly have some overlap.

Ramaswamy and Strive are both defined by their opposition to ESG investing and believe that it’s a detriment to investors and the country. Therefore, he’s been critical of asset managers like Blackrock and Vanguard who use their passive stakes in companies to encourage management teams to consider ESG factors when making decisions.

In contrast, Strive and Ramaswamy believe that companies should focus on maximizing profits rather than other factors. Its first 2 fixed income ETFs are the Strive Enhanced Income Short Maturity ETF (STXT) and the Strive Total Return Bond ETF (BUXX). STXT provides total exposure to fixed income with a cost basis of 49 basis points, while BUXX is designed to generate yield for investors by investing in short-duration bonds and charges 25 basis points.

Finsum: Strive Asset Management is launching its first 2 fixed income ETFs. The company differentiates itself by eschewing ESG and rewarding companies that don’t use these metrics.

In a strategy note, Scott Solomon and Quentin Fitzsimmons, the portfolio managers of the Dynamic Global Bond Fund, discuss why active fixed income is the best asset class for the current market environment. Despite recent economic data which indicates that inflation and the economy are both more resilient than previously expected, the pair believe that we are in the midst of a shift from one monetary regime to another.

However, they acknowledge that this is not going to be a smooth process. In fact, they expect a bumpy process especially given investor positioning. But, this uncertainty is what they believe will create opportunities in terms of credit quality and duration. Of course, such opportunities can be taken advantage of better by active fixed income managers rather than passive funds which are tracking benchmarks and unable to invest in securities of varying quality and duration.

Soloman and Fitzsimmons see a new ‘normal’ and expect rates to be structurally higher over the next couple of decades given high levels of debt to GDP in developed countries all over the world. Additionally, they anticipate that the negative correlation between stocks and bonds which prevailed in the years between the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic is unlikely to return as long as central banks are not actively supporting markets. 

Finsum: Scott Solomon and Quentin Fitzsimmons of T. Rowe Price’s Dynamic Global Bond Fund shared their thinking about why they expect active fixed income to offer the best opportunities in the coming years.

July saw a slowing of inflows into fixed income ETFs, while inflows into equity ETFs ramped higher. $17 billion flowed into bond ETFs which was dwarfed by the $43 billion of inflows into equity ETFs. For the month, the 3 most popular fixed income ETFs were the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, and the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF. 

This isn’t totally surprising given the poor performance of bonds in recent months due to a surprisingly resilient US economy which is leading to increased odds of more hikes and higher rates for longer and decreased odds of a Fed rate cut and continued cooling of inflation. In contrast, equity markets have been on fire with the S&P 500 now closing in on it's all-time highs from January 2022 while many tech stocks and indices are already at new highs. 

Overall in 2023, the share of inflows has been pretty balanced between fixed income and equity ETFs which is a new development as typically equity ETF inflows dominate. This is largely due to investors wanting to take advantage of higher yields and advisors and institutions becoming more comfortable with fixed income ETFs. 

Finsum: There was a slowdown of inflows into fixed income ETFs in July due to increasing volatility and more uncertainty about the Fed’s rate hike path.