Volatility? For at least the immediate future, when it comes to the market, it seems to about the only stable thing going.
Volatility’s on pace to remain on the high side – with the volatility index averaging about 25, according to jpmorgan.com. As the Fed over squeezes into weaker fundamentals, the S&P’s expected to again test last year’s lows.
“In the first half of 2023, we expect the S&P 500 to re-test the lows of 2022 as the Fed overtightens into weaker fundamentals. This sell-off combined with disinflation, rising unemployment and declining corporate sentiment should be enough for the Fed to start signaling a pivot, subsequently driving an asset recovery and pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end 2023,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, global head of Equity Macro Research at J.P. Morgan.
“We all know it’s been a tough year for investors. We’ve been through monetary tightening and persistent inflation across global economies,” said Ryan Murray, CFP, with Vanguard. “We’ve seen an unprecedented period of volatility in the bond market, where such fluctuations are highly unusual.”
Give the inherently unpredictability of markets, in the face of extreme volatility, shucking aside your long term plan will certainly cross the minds of investors, he noted. “But it’s important not to let emotions get the better of you or push you to make a reactive decision that could put your hard-earned savings at risk.