After a brutal year in the markets, you wouldn’t blame investors for being cautious in 2023. However, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes that history favors a 20% stock-market return in 2023. According to Fundstrat, “Historical data shows there is a high chance that the U.S. stock market may record a return of 20% or more this year after the three major indexes closed 2022 with their worst annual losses since 2008.” Lee basis this on the fact that in the 19 instances of negative S&P 500 returns since 1950, over half of those years were followed by the index gaining more than 20%. He and his team believe that three possible catalysts would enable stocks to produce 20% gains this year. The first catalyst is lower inflation. They expect lower inflation to set the stage for the Fed to stop raising rates and eventually start to lower them. Fundstrat also believes that wage gains will slow and volatility will fall. According to Fundstrat, equity and bond market volatility is likely to fall sharply in 2023 in response to a drop in inflation and a less hawkish Fed. Lee and his team wrote in a note that “Our analysis shows this drop in VIX is a huge influential factor in equity gains, which would further support over 20% gains in stocks.”

Finsum:Due to historical data, lower inflation, slowing wage gains, and falling volatility, Fundstrat’s Tom Less believes that the market will gain 20% or more this year.

While many model portfolios produced lackluster returns last year, there is one type of model that was able to limit losses, the bucket strategy. First developed by wealth manager Harold Evensky in 1985, the bucket strategy is a “now versus later” approach by dividing investors’ retirement savings into two segments. The first was a cash bucket to meet five years of living expenses and the second was an investment bucket for longer-term growth. Essentially the bucket strategy separates assets according to when they are going to be spent. The cash cushion was for the early years of retirement, while the growth segment was for maximizing the rest of the portfolio over a longer period. Morningstar’s Christine Benz created her own bucket portfolios which included those composed of only mutual funds and those that only included ETFs. Her three mutual fund bucket portfolios, which range from aggressive to conservative, only saw losses of 7.65% to 10.21% last year, compared with the S&P 500’s loss of 18.11%. This shows the advantages of a bucket strategy in market downturns as the downside protection from cash was able to buffer losses. Benz’s models also included allocations to short-term bonds and dividend-oriented stocks, which outperformed other bond and equity strategies.

Finsum:Morningstar’s bucket portfolios outperformed the S&P 500 last year by a wide margin due to cash buffers and exposure to short-term bonds and dividend stocks.

While rising interest rates last year battered both stocks and bonds, the rise in rates brought higher yields to the fixed-income market. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 2.330 percentage points in 2022 to 3.826%, its largest annual gain on record. The two-year Treasury yields surged 3.669 percentage points to 4.399%, while the 30-year yield jumped 2.046 percentage points to end the year at 3.934%. These marked the largest annual increases ever for those notes. The jump in yields drove investors into fixed-income ETFs last year, with BlackRock's iShares dominating inflows. In a phone interview with Morningstar, Salim Ramji, BlackRock's global head of iShares and index investments, stated "We had record flows even in one of the worst fixed-income markets. We were twice the next competitor." Based on data from Morningstar Direct, iShares attracted around $100 billion in 2022, the most among U.S.-listed ETFs that invest in fixed income. Vanguard saw the second biggest fixed-income ETF inflows with around $49 billion, followed by State Street with about $21 billion. The most popular fixed-income ETF based on inflows last year was the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which gathered around $15 billion.

Finsum: In an ugly year for fixed-income markets, bond ETFs continued to see strong inflows due to higher yields with Blackrock’s iShares leading the pack.

Direct indexing was a hot topic last year as personalization gained steam. It is expected to continue to gain popularity with investors still dealing with inflation and recessionary concerns. Investors want an investment strategy that not only combats market volatility but also addresses their personal situation. According to a 2021 McKinsey study, consumers don’t just want personalization, they demand it more than ever. Investment advisors are recognizing this and looking for ways to incorporate personalization into their clients’ portfolios. Based on the results of Schwab’s 2022 Independent Advisor Outlook study, more than half the advisors surveyed anticipate clients to expect more personalization of investment portfolios. Millennial investors are leading this trend. While personalized portfolios were historically designed for ultra-high-net-worth investors due to high account minimums, advancements in financial technology have brought these offerings to investors of all means. With personalization, investors can have more control over their holdings matching their specific views. Plus, it might also lead to better investment outcomes. Poor investing behavior such as making decisions based on emotion can lead to poor results. With a personalized portfolio, investors are more likely to stick to their strategy when markets get volatile.

Finsum:As inflation and a potential recession remain on investors’ minds, advisors expect their clients to ask for more personalized portfolios.

While many hedge funds performed poorly last year, there was one strategy that had a big year, macro. According to Investopedia, a global macro hedge fund strategy is defined as a strategy that bases its holdings primarily on the overall economic and political views of various countries or their macroeconomic principles. Macro strategies performed well in last year’s volatile market, leading to strong gains for several funds. For instance, AQR Capital Management’s longest-running strategy had its best year since its inception in 1998, with the fund posting a gain of 43.5% net of fees. In fact, at least a dozen AQR funds saw record performance. AQR’s Absolute Return strategy soared 55% before fees, while the Style Premia Alternative Fund jumped 30.6%. AQR’s global macro strategy also had its best year, with a 42% gain. AGR wasn’t alone in having a strong year. Scott Bessent, who is a former Soros Fund Management investing chief, posted a 30% gain in his macro hedge fund and Chris Rokos’s $15.5 billion Macro Fund surged 51% in 2022, his best-ever gain. However, there was one notable firm that didn't perform well, Bridgewater Associates. Ray Dalio’s firm gave up much of its gains after losing money in October and November.

Finsum: Several macro hedge funds performed well last year, with at least twelve AQR funds achieving record performance.