(New York)

Investors turned heavily towards income-producing stocks prior to Trump’s presidency. With yields so low, they offered income which was very hard to find elsewhere. More recently, though, high yielding stocks have been losing out as rates move higher. This has caused an exodus from some areas, such as telecoms, which have lost 16% over the last 18 months. However, one important thing to bear in mind as one watches yields fall on stocks is that this is often caused by rising prices. For instance, yields have fallen in six S&P 500 sectors over the last 18 months, but the market has returned 25% in that time frame—a nice pay off for losing some yield.

FINSUM: The key point of this very basic article is to remember that falling yields in equity can mean that the sector is doing very well.

(New York)

There has been a lot of media attention over the last year about the rise of faith-based and politics-based investing. New ETFs and advisors are currently cropping up to cater to investors who would like to invest based on these principles. However, Barry Ritholtz thinks the concepts may not be a good mix. The author looks at the returns of a popular biblical-based fund and finds that its performance lags broader indices significantly. Ritholtz argues that investors need to check their emotions at the door when investing, which is why this kind of philosophical investing may not create good returns. Ritzholtz says “Do your civic duty on Election Day and vote, go to church on Sundays, but always bring a cool unemotional detachment to investing on Mondays”.

FINSUM: The fees on these types of funds also tend to be much higher, which means that you are losing on both ends. That said, the peace of mind people get from investing in things they feel morally comfortable with may be greater than the expense.

(New York)

Only those watching the bond market closely would have noticed it, but a huge Treasury meltdown may have started yesterday. One month US Treasury bills saw yields jump an eye-popping 10 basis points in an instant. The incident followed one of the worst Treasury Bill auctions in a decade, where there was little demand from investors. The two possible answers for the terrible auction are the unusual date (it was moved because of the Fourth of July), or that China has indeed slowed or cut off its purchases of US debt.

FINSUM: The US better hope this bad auction was just a fluke of the calendar. That view is supported by the fact that longer-term Treasury auctions at the same time were much closer to normal.

(Washington)

The bad news just keeps on coming for the tech industry. Already this morning there is a lot of negative press about Google allowing third party developers to actually read users’ Gmail accounts, and now comes the news that the SEC has opened an investigation into Facebook for its data breaches. The SEC is looking at Facebook’s disclosures of the breach, and in particular, Mark Zuckerberg’s congressional testimony. Facebook says it is fully complying with all the current investigations it is facing.

FINSUM: This development might be particularly troublesome for the stock because investors are most familiar with the SEC. Hard to see what might develop here.

(Washington)

We have not covered the Trump probe saga in a while, and with good reason—there has been little news. However, that may be about to change. ABC News has run an interview which seems to suggest that Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, may be about to turn on the president as he prioritizes his own family. “I will not be a punching bag as part of anyone’s defence strategy … My wife, my daughter and my son have my first loyalty and always will ... I put family and country first”. He says he is not the villain in this story and does not want to be depicted that way.

FINSUM: Maybe he is about to turn on Trump, but no one knows what cards he may or may not be holding.

(New York)

If you are nervous about markets, you aren’t alone, as tensions seem to be steadily building about the future of equities. While trade war and higher rates dog the market, there are some tangible manifestations of worry starting to appear. High net worth Americans are increasingly focusing only on short-term investments. Only 17% of US millionaires surveyed said they planned to add to their stock exposure over the next year.

FINSUM: Investors still seem to be reeling from February, which saw the fastest peak-to-trough correction since 1950. Couple that with the threat of higher rates and a tumultuous trade war and it is easy to see why everyone is nervous. On the other hand, corporate earnings continue to be strong.

(New York)

The fee war on ETF trading continues, both for advisors and for retail. Trading platforms providers have been engaged in an ongoing struggle to attract assets by slashing the price of trading, and Vanguard just took a big step. While Vanguard used to charge retail investors a flat fee for trades depending on their AUM (trading Vanguard funds was always free), the company is now cutting transaction fees for aboutx 1,800 ETFs on its platform. No more trading fees at all. The move follows Fidelity’s recent addition of more fee-free ETFs. FINSUM: This is a big deal. 1,800 fee-free ETFs dwarfs the competition and we definitely think it will help Vanguard gather more assets, both retail and institutional.

(Houston)

The energy market has been doing well and some argue that the world is in the middle of an oil shock, or a condition where prices are very elevated because of a lack of supply. With that in mind, Goldman Sachs has published a piece choosing a couple stocks for investors to play the current oil market. The two stocks are Chevron and Canadian Natural Resources. Both have been laggards recently, but that helped them get the “Buy” rating from Goldman. The bank does not doubt Chevron’s ability to execute (unlike the market), and thinks that the announcement of some new projects will help propel the stock.

FINSUM: Hard to believe we could be in an oil shock when only recently it seemed we had an overwhelming glut.

(New York)

You have heard it before, and while you might not want to, you need to hear it again. All signs point to the fact that ETFs will likely be the epicenter of the next big market blow up. Investors will be familiar with the argument that the “liquidity mismatch” between ETFs and underlying bonds is a big problem, but the reality is that this is also the case in stocks. While small caps and other less-liquid stocks pose a big threat to ETFs which track them, in a market downturn, even quite liquid shares might be set alight by forced panicked selling by ETFs. Bloomberg gives and an example “Imagine that one big investor in an ETF with, say, a 10 percent stake is forced to sell a large part its holding in a single day. There might not be ready buyers for such a large holding, causing the ETF to fall to a price below the value of the assets it owns. This price impact may be exaggerated, as ETF activity intensifies both upswings and downswings”.

FINSUM: The fact that there are also big risks in equities really opened our eyes. We knew about the bond liquidity issue, but the fact that it extends to both small and large cap equities is quite concerning. Then again, there is a fatalistic logic where this all makes sense: ETFs have been the big growth driver since the Crisis, so it makes sense they would be the epicenter of the next one.

(New York)

Everyone is feeling it, but no one is sure when it might actually come. The big question is when will this bull market end and finally reverse into the bear market everyone fears. While a solid case could be made that it has already happened, Barron’s says it will be in 2020. The logic is that in 2020 the US will be facing genuinely higher rates, and the short-term benefits from tax cuts will have faded from earnings and the economy.

FINSUM: There is a serious argument to be made that the market may have already peaked, but the idea of a 2020 downturn sounds quite compelling too.