(New York)

The very public grudge match between JP Morgan and President Trump appears to be continuing, albeit in a more subtle way this week. Strategists at JP Morgan went on the record saying that one of the biggest risks to the market right now is that Trump overestimates the US economy and makes a major miscalculation in his trade war with China. The big worry is that Trump takes the trade war too far and sends China into a recession, which would then reverberate and cause a global reversal, shocking markets.

FINSUM: China experiencing a significant downturn could cause a chain reaction amongst EM and developed economies which could come back to sting the whole western world.

(New York)

Many investors may be looking for the best possible combination of high dividend yield and stability. Many companies with very high yields are not stable, so there is often a tradeoff between the two. With that in mind, here are three dividend stocks whose payouts should be reliable for decades to come. The first is a smaller REIT called CareTrust (4.6% yield), which is focused on growing its real estate footprint to handle the US’ aging population. Nike (1%) is another option. The dividend yield is not high, but it is hard to think of a more reliable payer. Finally, there is Canadian space stock, Maxar, which is growing strongly and offers a great dividend yield (considering how small and young it is) of 3.3%.

FINSUM: This is a serious mix of options from three entirely different sectors. Definitely some interesting choices to look into.

(Washington)

The trouble for Supreme Court justice-nominee Kavanaugh continues to pile up. Not only has one woman come forward with allegations of sexual misconduct, but now another has done so. Kavanaugh is set to give testimony, along with his accuser, on Thursday, but just as this was decided, a new accuser (this from his college years) has come forward. In a rare television interview, Kavanaugh confirmed yesterday that he had not sexually assaulted anyone, ever, and that he would not be withdrawing from the nomination hearings.

FINSUM: This is a very high stakes nomination considering the midterm elections are looming. There are certainly more fireworks to come.

(Atlanta)

The airline market has not been doing very well this year. Fuel prices and expanding capacity have weighed on the stocks. United is up big, but the rest of the pack is either in the red or up single digit percentages. Recently, there has been clear winners and losers, with United Continental, Delta, and Spirit being outperformers, and American, Alaska, and Southwest being laggards.

FINSUM: Airlines are an interesting sector, as each has its own unique characteristics, but they are all subject to similar woes. American Airlines has been a big loser this year, but some analysts think it could be the biggest gainer in the medium term.

(Portland)

Nike’s stock has been cruising this year, easily outpacing the broader market thanks to good earnings, new products, and the continued strength of “athleisure”. Shares are up 35% this year, and now it looks like they might head much higher as today’s earnings release is expected to be very strong. Many analysts are boosting their target prices, especially because gross margins look likely to expand on the back of less discounting and a shift towards the higher-margin direct-to-consumer business.

FINSUM: About a year ago, when Nike was going through a rough patch and losing market share, we thought investors should stick around. That has paid off.

(London)

We don’t cover the Brexit saga very much, mostly because it doesn’t seem to have a great deal of relevance to the US. However, interesting news is out today: the UK’s Labour party is trying to get a second Brexit referendum going. The political details are complicated, but the general plan is to derail the government’s current Brexit plan, and then hold a general election that could work as a replacement for the first Brexit result. A Labour party’s spokesman says that it is a “sequenced, structured” strategy.

FINSUM: We have maintained throughout this saga that the UK should not leave the EU. It is still going to have to be heavily involved with the EU for economic and political reasons, and if it leaves it will simply go from a rule-maker to a rule-taker.

(Washington)

Brokers pay attention—a major loophole in the SEC’s best interest rule has just become apparent. One of the industry’s big complaints about the BI rule has been that it seeks to govern the use of the “advisor” title. Well, until now it seems that everyone had missed a key loophole in the rule. When the SEC drafted it, it allowed for dually-registered advisors/B-Ds to call themselves advisors even when they are carrying on brokerage business. 61% of registered reps work at dually-registered firms, meaning this aspect of the rule is mostly a moot point for the majority of advisors. According to Michael Kitces, famed advisor and wealth management commentator, “The rule literally doesn’t apply to most advisers”.

FINSUM: This is one of those bombshell realizations that seems to happen when a new rule is 1,000+ pages long—you miss things.

(New York)

Retirees are looking for dividend stocks that can pay them steadily and over the long term. The higher the yield, the better, but generally one wants stable underlying companies that are not going to spend too high a percentage of cash. With those factors in mind, here are three names to consider: Verizon (4.3% yield), master limited partnership MPLX (6.85%), and mining giant Rio Tinto (~6%).

FINSUM: Verizon seems like a good bet to us, and we expect they might raise the dividend given that it is at an all time low relative to AT&T.

(Washington)

On the surface, the US seems to have a major upper hand in its trade war with China. Simply put, they export a lot more to the US than we do to China, which means that they have more to lose than we. However, looking closer at the imposition of the US’ attest tariffs, a significant weak spot emerges. That weak spot is that the US has become overly reliant on some very niche but important Chinese exports. Mot of these are things people have never heard of, like carbonate esters and fluorine salts, both used for electric car batteries. Nonetheless though, they are very important, and 297 such imports were recently exempted from the US tariffs.

FINSUM: Barite (for oil and gas exploration) and Ibuprofen, are other crucial imports. This is one of the pressure points where China could simply cutoff supply and the US would be in a difficult position.

(New York)

Rates and yields are rising as the Fed hikes and the outlook for the US economy improves. However, that will have a major effect on many stocks, which makes investors nervous. Accordingly, here are five stocks that should thrive in this rising rate period. JP Morgan believes investors should shift out of defensives and into cyclical stocks, like capital goods, financials, auto, and semiconductors. Five stocks to look at are: Applied Materials, BorgWarner, Caterpillar, KeyCorp, Parker-Hannifin.

FINSUM: This is a direct bet that we are not headed toward a bear market and recession. Given the market’s momentum lately, that could be a good change of tact.