(Washington)

The Fed has hiked rates many times over the last couple of years, but the overall attitude of Fed officials has been very relaxed. They have been diligent to project a very mild outlook of rate hikes. However, that may be set to change, argues the Financial Times. The US economy is growing very strongly, and the odds that the Fed may have to adopt a much more hawkish position are growing. The Fed’s hikes, though frequent, have been small, meaning policy is still accommodative and pro-growth. However, given the state of the expansion, a sharp move higher in rates is looking increasingly necessary.

FINSUM: Given the Fed’s most recent statement, this argument carries some weight. We can see Powell and the team getting more hawkish. That said, the economic tailwind of tax changes is fading, so perhaps it won’t be necessary.

(New York)

Rates are rising and new statements out of the Fed make it seem like the central bank could become more aggressive with its hike. With that in mind, the Wall Street Journal thinks it is time to adjust portfolios to account for a hawkish Fed. The biggest recommendation that the WSJ makes is that investors in retirement should keep a healthy allocation to stocks. Even though rates are rising, yields may not get high enough quickly enough to provide good returns. Accordingly, keeping a solid portion of capital in equity seems smart, but don’t swing for the fences. Next, make sure to stay very diversified to mitigate risks, and particularly, beware rate sensitive sectors like utilities or REITs.

FINSUM: This is sound advice, though nothing that would not be second nature for an advisor.

(New York)

That is quite a counterintuitive headline, but in an odd way, it could not be more true. Bloomberg has put out a piece, which echoes many advisors, that the current bull market could actually end up hurting many retirees. The reason why is that many have experienced hefty gains in the last decade and feel comfortable retiring. However, after such a sharp run higher, the market is likely to experience a steep correction. For retirees seeking to steadily withdraw money from their accounts, this could pose a major problem, as a drop in the market could cause such significant damage to portfolio value that even outperformance in subsequent years may not make up for it.

FINSUM: This is a valuable point that all retirees and their advisors need to bear in mind. Portfolio construction and planning definitely need to take this threat into account.

(Los Angeles)

Tesla investors got some grim news yesterday (unless you are the group hoping for Musk’s departure). That news is that the SEC is suing Elon Musk for fraud and is seeking to have him removed as the leader of Tesla. The suit seeks to have Musk banned from serving as an officer or director of a public company. The basis for the suit is the series of tweets Musk made regarding taking the company private, which the SEC says were “false and misleading statements”.

FINSUM: This is a pretty serious move from the SEC, made worse by news out today that Musk chose the price of $420 as a marijuana reference to impress his girlfriend.

(New York)

Retail has been doing great lately and may be poised to continue its gains. However, the best way to play the sector might not be to buy retail stocks. Instead, consider buying real estate stocks that would gain from retail’s success. With that in mind, Barron’s has run a piece choosing seven real estate stocks that will benefit from retail’s growth: Simon Property Group, Link REIT, Brixmor Property Group, Public Storage, and Mid-America Apartment Communities.

FINSUM: Make no mistake, these are deeply contrarian bets given the challenges mall and other retail REITs are facing. That said, if the strategy works, it may do so in a big way.

(New York)

The junk bond sector feels like it is on the precipice right now. After years of great performance, valuations and yields are at lofty levels. At the same time, there has never been more BBB bonds, or bonds just one notch up from junk. All of that means the market looks fragile. However, one of the lesser discussed risks in the high yield market regards a sea-change in accounting practices. Just as with startups, the high yield sector has seen major growth in suspicious accounting practices, such as inflating EBITDA to make debt multiples look lower. Often times this is done on a highly speculative basis that misleads investors.

FINSUM: This is just one of the many growing risks in the high yield market. It seems like the SEC needs to crack down on this sort of creative accounting.

(New York)

One of the important elements of last year’s tax changes that has not been covered much by the mainstream financial press is the way in which the new tax code proves a big boon for REITs. That big gain is that the effective tax rate on REITs has been slashed from 37% to just 29.6%, a big move downward. One REIT industry expert summed up the changes this way, saying “Now, REITs have even more of an advantage over fixed-income products … Seventy percent of REIT returns have historically come from income, so any relative pickup in income is a big benefit for investors”.

FINSUM: This seems like a big help to REIT investors, and it couldn’t have arrived at a better time given that rate rises will inevitable hurt REITs a bit.

(New York)

US dividend stocks are in a curious, if tenuous, positon at the moment. They have done well recently, but rate rises seem poised to bring prices down. Overseas dividend stocks, however, are not in the same predicament, as the rate environment in many other parts of the world is more benign. Accordingly, here are six overseas dividend stocks to consider: Allianz (4.1%), Hang Lung Properties (5%), Heidelberg Cement (2.8%), Nestle (2.9%), Royal Dutch Shell (5.3%), and Sanofi (4.1%).

FINSUM: Not only are these stocks attractive because of the good yields and mild rate environment, but they mostly have very attractive P/E ratios as well.

(New York)

Several Wall Street analysts are warning that the US will fall into a recession in 2019. Some are even pegging the odds as high as 100%. The reason for the recession will be the increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve, which yesterday adopted a more hawkish stance on the economy and rates (with a more aggressive dot plot and the removal of “accommodative” from its policy statement). The current trade war is the other big factor which could push both the US and global economy into recession, as international trade is already contracting.

FINSUM: Forecasting the timing of the next recession seems futile to us. However, we will admit that the Fed adopting a more hawkish stance (and the fact that the funds rates is now higher than inflation) worries us.

(New York)

Morgan Stanley has just put out a warning, or perhaps better stated, a notice to investors. The bank is reminding the market that this year will likely have the lowest returns in a decade. The bank’s strategists say that “2018 is on track to have the lowest share of positive returns adjusted for inflation across 17 major asset classes since 2008”. The poor returns have been particularly true for those holding globally diversified portfolios. What’s worse, Morgan Stanley thinks returns are going to get worse because of rising rates. According to the bank “We’re big believers that real rates matter most for risk markets, as it’s the rate over and above inflation that matters most for discounting future cash flows … As ‘invincible’ as the U.S. equity market has been, it hasn’t had to confront a different rate regime”.

FINSUM: If you look internationally, this has been a terrible year for markets, and it does seem true that rising rates won’t help anything in the coming year.