(New York)

Gold has been doing well recently. Between global trade turmoil, a falling economy, and decreasing yields, the metal has thrived. Here are three reasons the gains won’t reverse. The first is that the stock market continues to look risky, meaning gold’s allure as a safe haven seems assured. Secondly, yields on bonds have a definitively downward direction, which makes gold more attractive. Finally, inflation is unlikely to stay low forever. When it starts to rise, it would give investors another reason to bet on gold instead of bonds.

FINSUM: We don’t really think inflation will be much of a factor for gold in the immediate term, but the first two points are material.

(Washington)

In what comes as a potentially very good sign, the Treasury Department announced yesterday that a trade deal with China was close to becoming a reality. Steve Mnuchin, head of the Treasury, said that a deal with China was “90% of the way there”. On a slightly less positive note, he continued “The message we want to hear is that they want to come back to the table and continue because I think there is a good outcome for their economy and the U.S. economy to get balanced trade and to continue to build on this relationship”. Trump will meet Xi at the G20 gathering this weekend.

FINSUM: Mnuchin is not particularly given to exaggeration, so we take this 90% number as pretty meaningful. The downside is that the Chinese aren’t at the negotiating table right now.

(Washington)

It is getting to be the time of year when everyone is trying to predict next year’s election. A lot of polls show Trump is trailing, which has given Democrats hope and some comfort. However, a new chart published by Goldman Sachs offers a different view. The bank analyzed historical approval ratings against economic data heading into elections and found that when the economy is healthy, that factor outweighs approval rating. Goldman concluded that should the economy stay on decent footing, Trump has a clear path to victory.

FINSUM: This makes a lot of sense to us and we think it offers a more realistic picture than more minutely-focused opinion polls.

(New York)

The market’s outlook grew significantly dimmer yesterday. The Fed made clear that investors should not expect a rate cut in a July, which took the wind out of equity investors’ sails. With that in mind, here is a list of ten stocks that should help investors win in a downturn. The theme here is “low volatility” stocks, or stocks with less risk that should outperform the market in a choppy environment. The list: Aflac, Amdocs, American States Water, Atmos Energy, DTE Energy, Duke Energy, McDonalds, NextEra Energy, OGE Energy, WEC Energy Group.

FINSUM: Given the Fed’s reversal from what the market thought was its stance yesterday, right now does seem like a good time for low volatility stocks.

(Washington)

A US District Judge is allowing a lawsuit from Democrats against President Trump to proceed. The lawsuit is from Congressional Democrats and the green light they have received will allow them to begin collecting records from businesses owned by the president. The judge denied a request by the DOJ to pause the case in order for it to be reviewed by a higher court. “This case should have been dismissed. It presents important questions that warrant immediate appellate review and is another impractical attempt to disrupt and distract the president from his official duties”, said the DOJ. The department will now try a long-shot emergency plea to an appeals court in Washington.

FINSUM: This did not get covered much in the media, but it is an important development as this will bring the Democrats closer to getting all the records they want. The fight is escalating.

(Washington)

The SEC’s Best Interest rule is still being digested by markets. It contains some potentially big changes, including the definition of fiduciary duty. The DOL is yet to release its new Fiduciary Rule, but it will reportedly work smoothly alongside the SEC’s rule. One of the questions that has arisen in this context is whether under the new rules it may be increasingly easy for fiduciaries to accept commissions. The idea of fiduciaries accepting commissions is generally a big no-no in the current paradigm, but top industry lawyers like Fred Reish see this loosening under the new rules. In particular, it is seeming as though broker-dealers could accept commissions when offering fiduciary advice, but the jury is still out on RIAs.

FINSUM: This is just one of the many new changes that are on the horizon. The combination of new rules will likely create grey areas, risks, and opportunities that are not yet apparent.

(New York)

Yes, the market is at or near all-time highs. Yes, the Fed is dovish, which is mildly bullish for markets (or very bullish if the economy stays in decent shape). However, equities are sending some strong warning signals too. In particular, two sectors which often act as bellwethers are showing that the market may be headed for a decline. Both small caps and transportation stocks have been struggling, a development usually associated with a market headed south. The sectors have declined at a rapid pace, and relative to the S&P 500 as a whole, are at their weakest point since 2009.

FINSUM: This is a signal similar in nature to the yield curve inversion. Is it material or just an aberration? Anyone’s guess.

(New York)

The dovishness from the Fed has been bullish for most of the debt market, with sovereign yields falling and corporate debt getting a boost. However, the riskiest corner of the market, triple C junk bonds, have been left out, with the group falling by 1.5% since May. Triple B bonds, by comparison, were up. The odd part about the losses is that signs of an interest rate cut are usually very bullish for junk bonds because they would mean lower interest burdens for the companies. That said, anxiety about the economy is high enough that such benefits were negated.

FINSUM: This whole situation makes sense in that the downside risk of a sinking economy is greater than the upside of lower interest rates for this subsector. Thus, the bonds are losing. In other parts of the credit spectrum, the risk-reward balance is different.

(Washington)

Bernie Sanders has just made his big pitch to America’s Millennial generation. The candidate has vowed to eliminate all student loan debt for both undergraduates and grad students, and make all future tuition free. To fund the $1.5 tn write-off, he is planning a new tax on stock, bond, and financial derivatives trades which he forecasts would bring in $2.4 tn over a decade. One of the things that differentiates this plan from others, like Warren’s, is that it will eliminate all debt, not just that of the lowest income borrowers.

FINSUM: This is an interesting plan from a strategic perspective because it not only appeals to the left and the young, but also the richest of the young because it would eliminate all debt regardless of income. This point has brought criticism from some Democrats.

(New York)

RIAs all over the country have been quite confused over the last couple of weeks. Ever since the SEC’s infamous change from “and” to “or” regarding fiduciary duty and a new ban on the use of the word for certain advisors, RIAs have been unsure about whether they are allowed to called themselves “fiduciaries”. On the one hand, the ban of the term’s use for certain groups made it seem like they could not use it, while on the other the technical definition of their duty had changed such that they no longer need to be fiduciaries to in order to comply with the SEC’s rules on defining an RIA. The SEC cleared up confusion late last week, however, saying that RIAs could continue to call themselves fiduciaries as the ban on use of the word does not apply to them, and nothing has changed to limit their use of the term.

FINSUM: While many RIAs are unhappy with the recent changes because of how they will water down the RIA brand, at least the SEC was very quick to clear up this confusion.