(Beijing)

China’s newest GDP data has just come in and it is shockingly weak. Third quarter GDP growth was the lowest in has been since the early 1990s and appears to show the sting of US tariffs. Growth was just 6%, a major sign of the weakening state of the global economy. That is the same level of growth as in the late 1980s, though China’s economy is now far larger. Those paying attention will know that China’s economy grew at around 7-8% per year since the Crisis.

FINSUM: So this is an admitted 6%. Beijing keeps very tight control of its economic data, so it is not inconceivable that the real number is actually lower.

(New York)

Fixed index annuities had a really rough time in the year or so leading up to the debut of the first Fiduciary Rule. The DOL’s changes all but made the product extinct. However, since the rule was struck down, fixed index annuities have made a resurgence, posting their biggest ever quarter for sales with $20 bn in Q2 this year. The good news for brokers is that changes in the government’s regulatory approach means that fixed index annuities will now be treated like an equity product, which means they will be under the SEC’s purview. Additionally, a new kind of FIA has been developed—fee-based—which means brokers and advisors have a choice between a fee-based product or a commission-based one.

FINSUM: The big question for FIAs is how to do a best interest comparison between the fee-based and commission-based versions, as the cost changes depending on time and other factors.

(New York)

Quick quiz: what is the pillar of this bull market? Unless you answered “the US consumer”, you probably are not getting a passing grade. Therefore, any dents to the teflon-coated US consumer are very worrying, and that looks like the road we are headed down. New consumer spending data is in and it is poor. Spending at gas stations, on cars, and on home materials was considerably weaker. The overall boom in spending now appears to be over as we head into the winter, which could prove to be more than just meteorological.

FINSUM: There is good news and bad news. On the downside, this means that consumers may no longer be able to shoulder the load of carrying the economy. On the positive side, this could lead to rate cuts by the Fed, which the market would love, at least in the short-term.

(New York)

Whether we like it or not, a recession is likely headed our way. Industrial numbers are waning, and even consumer data is getting weaker. So assuming we have a recession, where is the best place to hide? A couple suggestions today. How about materials stocks, whicg have been on a tear this year, up 50% or more. Check out Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta Materials, which specialize in gravel, sand, and crushed stone. Materials stocks, like garbage-disposal companies, are quite recession resistant.

FINSUM: These stocks are pricey right now, but the demand for them seems likely to stay high if the economy keeps trending downward.

(New York)

Is the bull market winding down? Most people seem to think that is inevitable after such a long run. However, there are some contending the bull market could go on for years. The argument comes from Ciovacco Capital Management, which contends that by analyzing historical charts, the stock market looks poised for another breakout out, especially considering the Brexit deal, the US-China “phase one deal”, and the generally buoyant mood on Wall Street. Ciovacco says worries about China have been the biggest drag on performance, but that a lot of progress has been made, and one more piece of good news, such as the delay of December tariffs, could spark a big run by igniting “animal spirits”.

FINSUM: This is obviously highly speculative. However, it is a decent 30,000 foot view of where the market stands right now.

(London)

Well we are about three and a half years post-Brexit, and for most of that time, the situation only seemed to be getting worse. The UK was not only squabbling with the EU, but in the in-fighting in the UK was fevered. However, this week Boris Johnson has almost inexplicably agreed in principle to a deal with the EU. The big step from here is getting it approved by Parliaments on both sides.

FINSUM: All the details of this plan are not apparent yet, but that is frankly beside the point for a US investor. What matters here is that if the UK and EU can agree a deal, then markets will stop fretting about risk on that front.

(New York)

The SEC’s new Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) is causing a lot of headaches and anxiety for brokers. Particularly, brokers are worried that the new rules governing rollovers are going to end up being a trap. Reg BI does address rollovers, even laying out some (but not all) of the factors that one should be considering when recommending them. But brokers feel the rules are too vague, which could lead to big trouble. In particular, there are fears that of all the factors, cost will have by far the most weight, which could lead to heavy penalties when recommendations are viewed in hindsight.

FINSUM: In addition to the Reg BI anxiety about rollovers, there is also growing tension because everyone is expecting the new DOL Fiduciary Rule to try to grab some power in the rollover area, which means there will be new complications to deal with.

(New York)

Barron’s has published a wide-ranging article look at the whole “income” universe and where investors should put their money. The caveat is that it is a hard time to invest for income because yields are so low. That said, there are some opportunities. A few short-term bond funds look quite compelling at the moment. Two funds from Pioneer (MAFRX) and Pimco (PFIAX) both look interesting, sporting yields of 3-3.5% on bonds with much lower rate risk. Junk bonds are yielding 6%, but you can get over 7% in closed end junk funds. Munis look like a good buy on a fundamental basis, but their yields are quite low; versus Treasuries they still have good relative value, however.

FINSUM: The trick here is that many want to keep some bonds in their portfolio despite what has gone on in fixed income markets. We would stick to short-term bonds for the most part as they have comparable yields to longer-term offerings, but less risk.

(New York)

Investors and advisors—don’t get too excited about the zero fee shift among the big brokers, it is not all that it appeared to be. In particular, mutual funds seem to have been entirely left behind in the zero fee shift. Essentially, none of the big brokers has scrapped fees on mutual fund trades. While ETFs are now free to trade, mutual funds in some cases have transaction fees as high as $75.

FINSUM: This is going to wound the mutual fund market further, as not only do mutual funds have higher fees, but trading them will now be commensurately more difficult than ETFs too.

(New York)

A lot of demographers think there is going to be a coming baby boom, as Millennials finally have children. There is some disagreement over this as many think the boom is already a bust, but the reality is that there is likely to be a lot of babies born the next few years as Millennials make a last push to have children. The parents are likely to be older, which means more disposable income, and more spending. Therefore, buying into baby-oriented stocks seems like a good idea. Take a look at Carter’s, Bed Bath & Beyond (which has a baby unit), and Children’s Place.

FINSUM: We think there will be a baby rush over the next five years as Millennials try to have kids before aging out. That presents an opportunity for the baby sector.