(New York)

The ETF industry has been undermining the mutual fund business for years, but it is now set to undergo a transformation itself. In particular, as many as half of the 2,000+ ETFs currently listed are likely to close in the next few years as they die off from a lack of assets. Most ETFs need to reach somewhere between $50m and $100m to break even, but currently more than half of the 2,100 or so ETFs have less than $100m. The problem is that the market has become so inundated with new concepts—and so top heavy from broad index funds—that attracting assets is very difficult. Accordingly, many ETFs, including from large providers, are likely to close over the next couple years.

FINSUM: Big names have already started shuttering funds that were underperforming in terms of assets. Expect more of the same.

(Brussels)

In what can only be described as an act of both extreme patience—and hope for a better outcome—the EU has yet again agreed to extend the Brexit deadline from October 31st to January 31st following the big failure of Boris Johnson’s most recent deal in Parliament. The difference with this extension is that it has a caveat that if the EU and UK come to an agreement before January 31st, then the UK is free to leave in advance of the deadline.

FINSUM: The EU obviously wants the UK to leave on the best terms possible, and they are probably hoping Brexit gets completely reversed through an upcoming general election.

(Washington)

Yes, you read the headline correctly. The original DOL rule—the one vacated by the courts in 2018—is seeing new life breathed into it. We are not talking about the DOL Rule 2.0 effort being led by Scalia and company at the DOL, we are talking about the Obama era proposal. So who is bringing the new rule back, or at least proposing to do so—Elizabeth Warren. In a little covered policy release earlier this month, Warren vowed she would restore the Fiduciary Rule (1.0). She wanted to bring back “The Labor Department’s fiduciary rule that the Trump administration delayed and failed to defend in court, so that brokers can’t cheat workers out of their retirement savings”.

FINSUM: Add this to the long list of CFPB-oriented measures Warren wants to enact if she wins the election. On a separate note, it is very annoying how politicians so casually call all brokers cheaters when it is really a small sample of bad actors.

(New York)

Hopes for the housing market had been rising strongly in the last couple of months. After nearly a year in the doldrums, existing homes sales rose for a pair of months in July and August, giving the market hope that falling mortgage rates had revived the market. However, in September, sales again fell sharply, with existing home sales dropping 2.2% from the previous month. Prices, however, are rising, as short supply is moving asking prices higher.

FINSUM: Prices are holding up okay, but there is not much buying and building occurring, which means housing will be contributing less to the economy overall.

(San Francisco)

A prominent fund manager has just come out with a bold and bearish prediction—that the big multi-year surge in FAANG stocks will fade. Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates says “Will these stocks produce such impressive growth that they will justify their current market cap, or are these implausible growth expectations? We don’t have a crystal ball, of course, but we would recommend not betting on the momentum continuing”. Overall, FAANGs account for $4.2 tn of market cap, a huge concentration in such a small group of stocks, and a big threat to the overall bull market. Arnott is considered the founder of smart beta and has turned Research Affiliates into a firm that manages $184 bn.

FINSUM: The basic argument here is that FAANG valuations have simply grown too large relative to other sectors and are bound to come down. But what is the catalyst?

(New York)

Most investors are deeply worried about a forthcoming recession and the damage it could cause to markets. However, recession is hardly the biggest risk to worry about. Rather, investors should fear the end of globalization, anemic interest rates and growth, and liquidity risks, says Amundi Asset Management. According to Amundi’s CIO, the world’s future will be more regional and less global and suffer from aging populations. “Investors like me have been long global trade for three decades … It is the reason international diversification doesn’t work”.

FINSUM: So the argument here is that long-term stagnation causes by aging and the end of globalization is a bigger threat than a recession. Seems a solid point of view.

(Washington)

The Department of Labor has just proposed a new rule for advisors. We know what you are thinking—“oh boy, another DOL rule”. However, this new one might be quite a positive development. The new rule concerns disclosure. Specifically, it is a new proposal to allow retirement plan sponsors to make disclosures electronically. It would actually make electronic disclosure the default method. The proposal also includes additional protections for participants, including standards for the websites where disclosures are made.

FINSUM: This seems on the surface like a good idea, as it saves time, money, and hassle. Industry commentators have so far been supportive of the idea, but there has not been an in-depth review yet.

(Washington)

Between all the whistleblowers, and the questions over whether they actually had first hand knowledge, the ongoing impeachment inquiry centered on Trump’s phone call with Ukraine has become more confusing by the day. However, fresh news today has added weight to the situation. In particular, career US envoy to Ukraine William Taylor gave a deposition to the House inquiry which stated that Trump made the payment of US security assistance to Ukraine explicitly tied to the Ukrainian president opening a public investigation into Biden. Taylor says that in exchange for the aid to Ukraine, “President Trump did insist that President Zelensky go to a microphone and say he is opening investigations of Biden and 2016 election interference, and that President Zelensky should want to do this himself”.

FINSUM: Regardless of your position on this, Taylor’s testimony adds a lot of weight to the situation, as this is no longer an anonymous whistleblower. The impeachment inquiry just got more serious.

(Hong Kong)

Beijing is making a big change at the very top of Hong Kong’s leadership. Xi Jinping is said to be drawing up a plan to replace Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam with an interim chief. Beijing has been critical of Lam’s handling of the Hong Kong protests. Lam reportedly already offered to resign, but Beijing made her stay. Evidently, Beijing is now concerned about any timing of the move to replace her as they don’t want to further inflame the situation.

FINSUM: Beijing wants to replace her because of mismanagement, but they do not want to be seen to cave into the violence of protesters. Big pickle.

(New York)

Retirement takes a lot of planning, which every financial advisor knows intimately. Yet, retirees themselves often forget some of the big things that can derail their financial plans. Accordingly, here is a list of several important high expense items that retirees forget to account for. Firstly, one-time big ticket things, like new furnaces, air conditioning units, repainting the house etc. This big expenses can catch retirees off-guard. Relatives in need are often another big commitment that retirees don’t see coming. Additionally, many don’t realize that as their Social Security distributions rise, they can be moved into a higher tax bracket and may also see their Medicare premiums rise.

FINSUM: This is a just a good reminder piece of some of the pitfalls of retirement.