The housing market has outpaced nearly all expectations as prices are up a staggering 17.7% over the last 12 months. Some bears said this pace has to slow and that simply put there aren’t enough buyers to keep demand boosted this high, but Goldman Sachs sees it differently. They are projecting home prices to grow at 16% over the next year. They believe millennials are just hitting their stride in the buyers market and that a woefully short supply will keep prices elevated. New home construction has been far too sluggish in the post-2008 environment as investors are skittish, but low-interest rates give many the opportunity to buy. All of this puts the U.S. at an estimated 4-million home shortage, which has Goldman extending the horizon for house price growth through 2023, projecting another 6% increase. Others aren’t as bullish; CoreLogic and Freddie Mac are projecting 2.2% and 5.3% respectively.

FINSUM: Extremely low interest rates and glimpses of inflation could prop up home prices for the time being, as excess money has tended to flow disproportionally into assets like real estate.

Privatized space launches were a hot topic in news cycles this year, with success from SpaceX and private launches of billionaires Bezos and Branson. However, space didn’t just move headlines this year, it moved bottom lines as well. Privatized space infrastructure investment drew $3.9 billion in 2021Q3, setting an annual record of $10.3 billion. Space investments are broadly divided up into infrastructure (which posted the record year), distribution, and application. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) were the predominant factor in space investments. The capital was raised in private markets and mergers to go public happened frequently this quarter by Rocket Lab, Spire Global, BlackSky, Momentous, and Redwire. The trend won’t stop this quarter as more deals SPAC deals are expected to place and set more records in Q4. Space investment has raised nearly $231.2 billion in private equity since 2012.

FINSUM: While a lot of major deals are done in private equity, retail investors can look to ETFs like ARKX to invest in this growing market segment.

Value stocks are usually sought after for their relatively cheap prices trading at low P/E ratios or below book values. They had been on a near decade-long losing streak that culminated in the Pandemic crisis, which drove investors to the lofty tech-based growth stocks, but things turned around for value in September 2020 but were once again stalled out by the delta variant. However, as the economy begins to once again stabilize value is coming back with a vengeance. Bankruptcy concerns and thin profit margins are no longer fears, and value is at the ultimate discount. Research Affiliates, and investment strategy firm, value is poised to return between 5-10% in the coming decade. Global vaccine rates are making progress and cyclical sectors and hence then value sectors are going to turn around the way they started to in September 2020.

FINSUM: Value’s comeback seems inevitable, the ultra-low prices are out of wack stability will see value outperforming other factors in the upcoming year.

(Washington)

Financial advisors have been highly focused on the prospect of the Biden Administration imposing a new capital gains tax rate. In particular, the abolition of the “step-up in basis” at death that inheritors currently benefit from. The popular parlance that has emerged in the industry is “death tax”. Clients generally hate this new proposal, but one of the underappreciated risks is the major liquidity risk that the rule presents. On many assets, capital gains taxes could be large—and take a large amount of cash to pay, cash that many inheritors may not have.

FINSUM: One typical example is on US farms, where land has become hugely valuable over time, but where the actual farming business runs on slim margins. This means inheritors may have high wealth in terms of assets, but little liquidity, creating a significant tax debt under Biden’s proposals.

(New York)

Active ETFs have grown in popularity, doubling in the last two years, and they are starting to reverse the 30-year index trend invented by John Bogle. Mutual fund giants such as Fidelity, T.Rowe Price, Franklin Templeton, and American Century all have opened active funds. Driving this inflow is a series of regulatory changes that protect active fund insights and make them more tax efficient. SEC regulations have allowed semitransparent ETFs to use custom baskets and move around stocks in order to not realize gains. Semitransparent ETFs have better liquidity which allows them to cut the high transactions costs of yesteryear. Some of the fastest-growing funds are Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation, but JPMorgan’s Ultra-Short Income, PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity and JPMorgan’s Equity Premium Income. Finally, the current environment is allowing active funds to edge out. Active funds have thematic interests that satisfy investors at lower costs than traditional funds, and pickers outperform when there is high dispersion (as there is now).

FINSUM: Active funds are cutting costs to some of the lowest levels historically and in these tumultuous times that makes them as competitive as ever.

The European Stockxx 600 was up .5% on Friday driven by earning releases in the banking sector. That trend followed around the globe as Asia-Pacific’s Taiex index boosted 2% and Wallstreet’s S&P was up 2%. It was strong financial earnings in U.S., and semiconductors in the East pushing the Taiex. All of this happens as inflations concerns continue in the U.S. as consumer prices rose 5.4% on the year, but the Euro areas are seeing the opposite results as monthly inflation was negative in France. The common price thread is definitely in energy prices as Brent crude hit $84.40 a barrel.

FINSUM: The trickling earning reports have generally exceeded expectations. That trend looks to continue, and global portfolios are not only diverse but are outperforming.

Bitcoin flew by $60,000 and is approaching all-time highs. This was a 4% climb in less than a day. Speculation is what pushed the world’s most prominent cryptocurrency higher, as it seems it seems regulators will be approving the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund. While there hasn’t been anything official, the ETF is set to launch at the NYSE on Tuesday, and investors are expecting the SEC to not object. Investors like Mikkel Morch, executive director at ARK36, are putting $65k price target on bitcoin. The rally wasn’t widespread in all crypto as both XRP and ADA slumped. Regulation is still one of the largest risks as central banks and governments around the globe are weary to embrace. Jon Cunliffe Dpubbt BoE Governor said crypto could spark a 2008 sized financial crisis.

FINSUM: Chinese regulators were the biggest threat to crypto earlier this year, but it appears the U.S. is moving more progressive on crypto regulation moving forward.

(Washington)

The SEC’s Investor Advocate has pointed out that Reg BI is under threat. Some of the developments in the market have meant that Reg BI may be rendered useless. In particular, the increasing use of “nudges” in trading inevitably rubs against the fundamental meaning of Reg BI. If trading platforms for retail investors are constantly using “nudges”, or encouragements to trade, how much does that constitute a recommendation? That is the esoteric question that the SEC must address. According to the SEC’s Investor Advocate, Rick Fleming, “In my view, it appears that the use of certain DEPs, by gamifying securities trading for retail customers, could significantly influence these retail customers’ investment decisions in ways that were not fully contemplated when the commission adopted Reg BI with its important distinction between solicited and unsolicited trading.

FINSUM: Reg BI is only a couple years old and it is already antiquated!

(Washington)

Advisors have been paying very close attention to Reg BI. This is especially true because the Biden administration looks poised to make a number of changes to the rule, including defining “fiduciary” and bolstering enforcement. However, that appears to not be all as the SEC may be set to make an addition to Reg BI: a new section covering the gamification of trading. The SEC’s Investor Advocate, Rick Fleming, says that “N]ow it seems that most if not all of the on-line discount brokers are influencing investor behavior with digital engagement practices, which further blurs the line between providing investment advice and traditional brokerage service … At some point, if the Commission fails to brighten the distinction between advisors and brokers, it will make little sense to regulate the two with such distinct regulatory models.”.

FINSUM: Critical changes to definitions, much heavier enforcement looming, and now a pandora’s box on gamification. And this might be just the beginning.

(New York)

Wall Street is about to start posting 3rd quarter earnings and market participants are expecting another big round of postings. Driving most of those earnings is robust growth in the overall economy, which drove the same blockbuster Q2 reports. Some of the highest expectations are in the banking sector as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., and U.S. Bancorp are looking to lead the pack. This is driven by micro factors in their companies but also macro factors that benefit financials as interest rates look to rise and the Fed begins tapering. Outside financials, large caps like UnitedHealth Group Inc. are also looking to post very high earnings with solid financials and its valuable brand Optum is driving earnings. The delta variant may have hamstrung some companies from the great Q2, but large-cap companies could be robust enough to withstand the covid resurgence.

FINSUM: Additionally, look to energy companies to post solid Q3 numbers as high prices helped bottom lines for these large-cap juggernauts.