Treasury yields have been on the climb as of late. The 10 year Treasury is up as much as 30 basis points since mid September, and that climb has many dividend investors worried as to the value of the stocks they hold. Most income investors see rising yields challenging the value of income stocks, causing them to fall, but in the 15 times in the post war era that the 10-year has risen 1.5% from its low, the S&P grew by 12% annualized in this stretch. What this current Treasury climb has in common with its predecessors is inflation. The latest PCE posted a 30-year record, and that is being priced into Treasuries, which is eroding the traditional income stream. With realized gains in Treasuries lower than the nominal yields driving headlines, dividend investors might not need to be worried about stock valuations sinking. 

FINSUM: If yields were being driven by growth factors, we might see the more traditional relationship between interest rates and asset prices, but an inflation-driven cycle might not push investors away from dividend equities.

Monetary policy is diverging in emerging markets with some countries keeping policy rates low and others beginning to tighten, and investors are beginning to make a ruling. Countries like Russia, Columbia and South Korea all experienced currency appreciation due to tighter policy, and certain investment classes are being rewarded. Bond markets are signaling a yield curve inversion in Russia, pricing in future rate hikes, but this has been okay for oil exports. While at the other end, Turkey saw its yield curve climb and its currency—the lira—perform poorly in October. There were mixed signals from Brazil, where the fiscal policy signaled lots of public spending. The monetary policy started to tighten to curb inflation, and as a result, markets punished the Brazilian real.

FINSUM: There are diverging schools of thought globally as to how to respond to the combination of the world’s energy crisis and the lingering Covid-19 pandemic.

Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co see a weak market in traditional stocks and bonds coming in 2022. They say the remedy for your portfolio is in alternatives like hedge funds and real estate. It's not a small margin of victory either, JPMorgan is predicting a 6% gain in hedge funds and real estate over the traditional composition of stock and bonds. However, they are recommending investors be weary of crypto as they do expect gains but they will be too rocky to ride. In fact, volatility almost halves the value in the investment firm’s mind. JPMorgan sees macro trends dominating the funds because of a variety of factors like inflation and Fed tapering.

FINSUM: Macro hedge funds have struggled in leading up and going through Covid, but with inflation moving, the tide could be turning.

ESG has been for 2021 what the dotcom expansion was for the year 2000, but maybe that growth will fall off like tech did in the early 2000s. This month was startling for the ESG investors as debt issuance took a dive. Green bond issuance slumped 28% and other categories like social bond sales and sustainability loan offerings were down 54% and 49% (respectively) month-to-month. Annually ESG is still in a wonderful place in comparison to last year as the cumulative bonds are over $500 billion ahead when compared through the first 10 months. This volume is concerning still as investors had higher projections for 2021 than are currently being met.

FINSUM: ESG is nowhere near over but ‘faux’ green bonds could be catching enough attention to slow the ESG trend.

Earlier today, the first U.S. bitcoin ETF — the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ticker: BITO) — began trading on the New York Stock Exchange...see the full story on our partner's site

2021 has posed its fair share of risks to the average portfolio: emerging market disruption, Covid-19 resurgence, slowing economic growth, and rising inflation. However, model portfolios are the solution advisors can utilize to mitigate this risk. Often sought after for their ability for advisors to utilize in order to spend time deepening relationships with clients, a suite of model portfolios have popped up targeted to mitigate risks. For example, EQM Capital launched a variety of modular model portfolios that are risk-based ETFs to better suit clients’ portfolio objectives and preferences.

FINSUM: Model portfolios are expanding and changing in a variety of ways, and this means they can better suit their clients whether that's for their risk level or ESG expansion.

Moody’s Analytics launched a new platform called PortfolioStudio which is a cloud-based portfolio management tool with risk analysis built in. Moody’s staff say the tool will improve efficiently and allow managers to assess risks in their investments. PortfolioStudio will be a part of the Moody’s ‘ecosystem’ meaning it will share data, models, and assumptions across their applications, and will provide insights to their clients. They view their risk expertise as a natural fit for portfolio management and that the technology will benefit their clients.

FINSUM: Integrating credit and ratings features is a boost that Moody’s can add for their clients and gives them an edge over similar portfolio management platforms.

The bond market boom has been bad for many fixed income investors, and debt is coming to term in a higher inflationary environment which is eating up all the return. However, bond market investors are turning to factor based investing to earn excess returns. Factor investing is a $700 billion market in equities, and it dwarfs the $25 billion dollar fixed income factor market. Factor investing modifies indices based on factors they think can give an edge over traditional indices. Active bond factor investing can outperform traditional indices in rising yield environments, but factor investing is looking to rival these active funds with systemic decisions. A ‘smart beta’ approach will look to outperform in high yield and emerging market debt.

FINSUM: The extensive literature on systemic fixed income is relatively small, and that's why smart beta strategies have failed to take off in the bond market like they have in equities.

Over a hundred and thirty nations have already consented to the global minimum corporate tax, and that number just got a little larger as all G20 came forward to endorse a 15% global minimum tax rate. This was a huge win for the Biden administration and secretary Yellen who have been strong advocates, but they still face hurdles with the domestic tax code in the Build Back Better bill. The administration said that the other G20 understand the minimum could take time with Republican opposition and Democratic infighting dominating congress, and the official timeline for the G20 will roll out at the end of the week. The other topic that is driving the G20 are the world's energy shortage which is on the forefront of everyone's minds, and how the world can come together to spur production.

FINSUM:The current form of the Build Back Better legislation aligns the U.S. with the global minimum and extends tax credits for millions of low-income Americans, but we’ll see if that makes it through the Congress at the end of the week.

The fixed income (FI) portfolios of institutional investors are evolving rapidly. Investment strategists around the globe are noting that, in the search for yield, many investors are...see more on our partner's site