The Biden Admin has been tip-toeing around crypto regulation since it came into office, but now those public statements are actually materializing in the form of regulation. A top town security memorandum is expected to come down the pipes in the next few weeks which will task separate government agencies to develop regulatory policies around crypto, NFTs, and stable coins. The State Department, Treasury Department, National Economic Council, Council of Economic advisors, and White House Security Council will all be on the job. While the Whitehouse will avoid regulatory suggestions they are putting the burden on these agencies to propose stricter rules.

FINSUM: Crypto regulation isn’t necessarily bad; it's just another closer step toward legitimizing digital currencies in the eyes of countries around the globe.

Energy stocks went through a long, rough period leading into 2021. Since 2014, the whole sector has been maligned by low prices and sluggish demand. Renewable energy had stolen a lot of attention and funding and the traditional energy sector languished. However, a unique set of economic circumstances means it may be the right time to get back into energy. Oil prices have been rising strongly (a good inflation hedge), which is a nice catalyst, but almost more importantly, higher interest rates—which are clearly on the horizon—are a big headwind for renewables. Renewable energy projects take a great deal of financing and a long time to set up, which means higher rates increase costs and slow down financings.

FINSUM: Energy seems to be getting back in vogue, that said, the rise of ESG standards in debt financing might mean traditional energy projects also suffer.

Direct and custom indexing are all the rage right now and many companies are racing to provide lower fees and smaller minimums. The most advantageous part of direct indexing is its goldilocks solution when it comes to fees, but particularly the active/passive debate mashup. The most talked-about advantage to custom indexing is tax-loss harvesting in the portfolio, but there could be a larger advantage: sectoral macro factors. The Fed is quickly planning on hiking rates which will adversely affect technology stocks, with a custom index you can add/drop targeted sectors that are facing financial headwinds due to policy changes.

FINSUM: This is a nice way to leverage the tailored portfolio that you can get from custom indexing.

New survey data is out regarding how investors are utilizing fixed income ETFs and how they are represented in a portfolio. In 2021 Fixed income represented about 18% of global ETF assets under management, and many investors plan on increasing their use going forward. The number one purpose for fixed income ETFs was for liquidity management as 83% of surveyors use them in this way. However, transition management, derivative complementarity, and tactical adjustments were also highly cited reasons for their use. Many draw on fixed income ETFs for liquidity purposes, and this is particularly evident in the bid-ask spreads. Relative to their underlying securities ETF spreads for HYG were 48x smiler than the underlying assets.

FINSUM: It's clear investors aren’t terribly worried about lower yields and rising interest rates, these ETFs are giving freedom and flexibility in investors’ portfolios.

Many investors and lots of market data suggested that interest rate hikes to the federal funds rate were coming at this last FOMC meeting. However, the Fed made a minor splash by withholding on hiking interest rates, but almost guaranteeing them in march. Higher borrowing costs will come in large part due to rising inflation and running a very tight labor market. Powell said this latest economic expansion varied drastically from the previous with significant growth and higher inflation. Powell also signaled that the Fed will soon begin to unwind the balance sheet as they raise rates. Treasury yields were already on the rise after the Feds statement and stocks ended in losses on the news too.

FINSUM: When the rate hikes come they most likely only happen on the Feds March, June, September, and December meetings because the Fed views its large ‘Summary of Economic Projections as critical to their forward guidance policy.

Inflation is picking up as PCE and CPI numbers are setting decade-long records, and the Fed is rapidly trying to regain control. The American people are beginning to show signs of angst as 65% of American’s say that Biden’s admin has not put enough attention on handling inflation and almost 60% say the same thing about the economy. This comes a swathe of low approval rating numbers come in where he has fallen almost 20 percentage points all the way down to the low 40’s. Overall about half of Americans say they feel frustrated and disappointed in the Biden admin. Biden’s focus has been on a series of regulatory and economic-centered packages, and many American’s don’t feel he is focusing on the issues they ‘don’t care about’.

FINSUM: Biden should stop pushing for another big fiscal package immediately if he has any hopes of reigning in inflation in 2022.

Wells Fargo has been one of the dominant figures trying to improve advisor headcount and it looks as though some of those efforts are paying off. Steven Tahn is moving from JPMorgan, where he has been since 2012, and bringing $2 million in GCD as well. Wells has had a series of declines for the last couple of years and has fallen short of targets when it comes to recruiting and retention. However, signs of improvement are there and their series of penalties and bonuses for client retention could be starting to pay off.

FINSUM: We’ll be keeping our eyes on the biggest changes in recruiting and retention in 2022 among financial advisory firms.

The bond market blues have been difficult as rising rates have started to really deflate a lot of funds. However, active bond funds have had an edge because not been pegged to indices they have freely navigated to localized emerging market debt. From HSBC to BNP many of the largest funds are buying up localized EM debt because many of these countries’ central banks tightened monetary policy last year and the rate hikes are already built-in. So as bond prices go down in the U.S. and inflation risk remains high, hawkish central banks in Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, China, and South Korea have all soured because localized currency means higher real payout and with relatively lofty interest rates the funds have a more promising horizon.

FINSUM: 12-Months ago the U.S. was looking at Emerging Markets as crazy for tightening the belt too quickly, but now these emerging markets are ahead of inflation and their bonds are soaring.

The Biden Admin hasn’t been shy about wanting to tighten the regulatory belt on Wallstreet and the financial world, and another step is being taken. The SEC is considering changing the disclosure rules when it comes to acquisitions of public companies by hedge funds. Currently, HFs have a 10-day buying period to which the public doesn’t have to be made aware of a purchase. Chairman Gensler is making it clear they are eying tighter rules when it comes to disclosure. The current rules are over 50 years old and were meant to bring more information symmetry between the public and private investors. The SEC is looking to increase transparency and give the public more time to adjust.

FINSUM: This will definitely give the public an advantage, but we’ll see how the SEC votes when push comes to shove.

Fidelity is about to take direct indexing to a whole new level. The asset manager/custodian/broker-dealer is launching its new Fidelity managed FidFolios product, which is a retail-focused direct indexing suite with only a $5,000 minimum and a 0.40% fee. According to Think Advisor “The Fidelity Managed FidFolios combines direct indexing with fractional share trading, which allows clients to allocate assets among multiple positions based on dollar amount rather than share size”. Morningstar gives context to the launch, saying “This is the most mainstream form of direct indexing from a most mainline asset management and provider of investor services seen to date”.

FINSUM: Direct indexing is a heated battleground for asset managers right now, with Fidelity, Vanguard and others in the mix. This seems like a big step.