Until a couple of months ago, the market’s consensus forecast was that inflation would gradually ebb lower as the Fed’s rate hikes would choke off economic activity, resulting in an inevitable recession. Needless to say, this scenario was very bullish for fixed income as it would let investors take advantage of higher yields and then profit from appreciation in bond prices.

Of course, reality had a different plan. Rather than a recession, we are seeing the economy continue to grow and add jobs. In fact, there is increasing evidence that the business cycle could be turning higher. Similarly, inflation has proven to be stickier than anticipated, and many believe we could be in a regime of ‘higher for longer’ inflation.

For ETF.com, Lisa Barr spoke to Monish Verma of Vardhan Wealth Management to get his insights on how to navigate this terrain. He believes that inflation will be structurally higher over the next decade which means more volatility in fixed income. 

In terms of duration, he likes the short-end at the moment but recommends tactically adding longer-duration closer to the end of the year as the Fed nears the end of its hiking cycle. He also recommends fixed income ETFs that are low-cost and diversified as offering the most upside. 

FinSum: Many fixed income investors were caught off guard when the economy and inflation proved to be more resilient than expected. Here are some strategies to consider if inflation continues to linger.

In an article for the FinancialTimes, Moira O’Neill discusses the pros and cons of buying an annuity today. Annuities are increasingly on investors and advisors’ minds because many are now offering yields that are equivalent to long-term returns achieved by equities. Further, inflation is trending lower, while many believe that current elevated rates will prove to be transitory.

From a less quantitative perspective, annuities also offer peace of mind given that there is no variability in terms of returns regardless of what happens with the economy or inflation or monetary policy. This can be appreciated more in the current environment given the rising risk of a recession. 

Given that most annuities operate in perpetuity, a big factor in whether buying an annuity makes sense depends on an investors’ lifespan. The longer they live, the better an annuity will perform. And, this would certainly be the case if we go back to a low interest rate world which prevailed for much of the past 2 decades. 

For investors and advisors who believe that inflation is here to stay, buying an annuity doesn’t make sense. Instead, they should find better opportunities in other asset classes which tend to outperform in an inflationary environment. 

Finsum: Annuities are seeing major demand due to high interest rates, falling inflation, and increasing concerns that a recession is looming.

Many advisors have embraced model portfolios as it frees them from a portion of their portfolio management responsibilities. Instead, they are able to focus more time and energy on areas like client relationships, prospecting, and planning which are shown to be more important to building a successful practice, client retention, and helping clients reach their goals.

However as covered by Jeff Benjamin for InvestmentNews, some advisors are rejecting this approach. Instead, they believe that they can add value to their clients by remaining involved in portfolio management. Many of these advisors apply their expertise when it comes to selecting individual stocks for their clients’ portfolios. 

For instance, Ryan Johnson of Buckingham Advisors will manage the large-cap equity portion of clients’ portfolios, but when it comes to small-caps, international, or fixed income he relies on mutual funds and ETFs.  

Many of these advisors cite reasons such as tax management, higher concentration, and greater client involvement in their portfolios. That being said, these advisors acknowledge that it’s more work and comes with greater risk. Yet, they are willing to accept the tradeoff. 

Finsum: Model portfolios are taking a greater share of the industry as it frees advisors up from portfolio management responsibilities. Yet, some are not so eager to embrace the trend. 

For WealthProfessional, Leo Almazora discusses best practices when it comes to succession planning. For one, advisors need to delineate between working in the business and on the business. Many are so wrapped up in helping their clients plan for the future and reach their financial goals that they don’t apply similar principles to the futures of their practice.

However, it’s increasingly accepted that succession planning is an integral part of serving your clients especially if you plan to retire before your clients. Therefore, advisors need to secure a worthy successor for their clients and it’s ‘the last best thing an advisor can do for their clients’.

According to Almazora, advisors should start planning for succession about 5 years before their retirement date. Although there are multiple ways to structure a takeover, some sort of soft transition is ideal, where the new advisor and old advisor both work together for a couple of years to ease the transition. These types of transitions typically result in less client attrition and more client satisfaction. 

In terms of finding the right successor, some considerations are shared values in terms of planning and investing and a similar temperament when it comes to clients. Another important factor is that the successor should be able to identify with the niche that is an advisor’s specialty. 

Finsum: Over the next decade, there is going to be a wave of retirement of financial advisors. WIth this in mind, advisors need to get serious about succession planning.

For Barron’s, Steve Garmhausen conducted a roundup of various financial advisors to get their input on the best strategy for fixed-income. Some of the factors to consider are where the Fed is in terms of rate hikes, is a recession imminent or will the economy continue to defy the skeptics, and will inflation continue to decline or will it plateau at an uncomfortably high level.

Yet, what is certain is that Treasury yields are at their highest level in decades. Further, investors can lock in positive real returns for many years given the jump in yields, coupled with the decline in inflation.

According to Matt Kishlansky of GenTrust, it’s a great time for investors to buy short-dated TIPS given the 3% coupon. This would outperform Treasuries as long as the inflation rate stays above 1.9%. And, he believes that inflation will prove to be much ‘stickier’ than consensus forecasts.

Thomas Salvino, the CEO of Performance Wealth, recommends building a ladder of Treasuries to lock in yields at different durations. Overall, he still believes the best way to build wealth is to build a portfolio of high-quality companies that are regularly increasing dividend payments. 

Finsum: Fixed-income is in the spotlight as investors and advisors look to lock in lofty Treasury yields. Barron’s asked some advisors on their best fixed-income strategy.

In an article for SmartAsset, Rebecca Lake CEPF discusses some time management tips for financial advisors. This is especially relevant for advisors in the early stages of their careers as they often have multiple roles such as prospecting for clients, servicing existing clients, portfolio management, operations, marketing, etc. 

Many advisors end up overwhelmed and working inefficiently. Ironically, advisors need to audit their time and efforts to ensure that their daily routine is consistent with their long-term goals which is a similar process with onboarding new clients. 

The first step is to start creating a structure and routine to your day especially in regards to the most important tasks that drive success. Often, advisors can end up in a reactive mode throughout their day which leaves them tired at the end of the day but still unproductive in terms of achieving longer-term goals. 

Another step is to identify tasks that are time-consuming but not productive and find ways to outsource or delegate these. If this is not possible, then you can put some time limit on these tasks. 

Overall, these steps can help advisors be more productive and also have a healthier work-life relationship while ensuring that progress is being made towards longer-term goals. 

Finsum: A big challenge for advisors is time management. This is even more the case for new advisors who have to build their business while they learn the business.

At Morgan Stanley’s US Financials, Payments, & Commercial Real Estate conference, CEO James Gorman shared some thoughts on the bank’s future, and why he’s particularly bullish on its wealth management arm.

According to Gorman, the bank continues to look for opportunities to expand its asset management business through acquisitions. He believes there is more growth opportunity in this area especially compared to investment banking, lending, or sales & trading due to the industry being ‘non-consolidated’ unlike other parts of the financial world. He is also open to making deals in new geographies. 

While Morgan Stanley has traditionally been a Wall Street-based bank, Gorman has sought to increase its presence in wealth management during his 14 year tenure. Some of his most notable acquisitions include Eaton Vance, Calvert Research and Management, and direct indexing provider Parametric Portfolio Associates. 

He was particularly positive on direct indexing, since it has resulted in ‘huge positive flows’, and it has seamlessly fit with the rest of its wealth management division. Overall, wealth management is the fastest-growing part of its business albeit the smallest with $1.3 billion in revenue in the first quarter. 

Finsum: Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman has made a successful bet on wealth management as a key growth driver for the bank. He continues to believe in this strategy and is looking for expansion opportunities.

In an article for AdvisorHub, Karmen Alexander discussed the first 100 days of the new presidents of Merril Lynch, Eric Schimpf and Lindsay Hans. The duo have been hitting the road and personally meeting with the company’s roster of advisors, associates, executives, and investment professionals across major markets. 

They are also betting on a new growth strategy which dovetails with its parent company, Bank of America. Essentially, it comes down to discovering new talent and then investing in their training. And, it’s a major shift from its previous aggressive recruiting of brokers and advisors. 

Currently, it’s targeting about 200 new advisor recruits every quarter. In part, this is a response to the current attrition rate of 4% annually due to a combination of recruitment by competitors, exits from the industry, and retirements. The new trainees will also help to offload work and responsibilities from existing teams so that they can focus more on growing their business and serving clients. 

Merril is also offering incentives for advisors to pursue new clients. So far, it’s working as it saw a more than 100% increase in the number of new client relationships in the first-half of the year and a 150% increase in the number of net new households added. 

Finsum: Merril Lynch has two new presidents leading it. In their first 100 days, the duo have unveiled their new growth strategy for advisors and clients.

For Bloomberg, Hideyuki Sano shared some findings from an Invesco survey of sovereign wealth funds and central banks. Invesco surveyed 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks which manage a cumulative amount of $21 trillion.

The major takeaway is that the group is looking to increase allocations to fixed income and gold due to a combination of higher yields, increased geopolitical risk, and a shaky economic environment. They continue to see inflation as the biggest risk to returns and is one factor in their bullishness on gold. 

Interestingly, the sovereign wealth funds and central banks remain cautious on equities despite the strong rally over the last 9 months. In fact, many are looking to tweak their asset allocation models in order to increase exposure to fixed income as they look to take advantage of higher yields. 

Within the fixed income market, they were most bullish on emerging markets and high-yield. Compared to last year, there was a sharp rise in those who are bullish on private credit funds due to their strong performance over the past couple of years in a challenging environment. 

Finsum: Invesco conducted a survey of 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks. The major takeaway is increasing bullishness on fixed income and gold due to concerns about inflation and a potential recession.

In an article for CNN Money, Krystal Hur covers why many Wall Street analysts continue to issue upbeat commentary and favorable ratings on energy stocks. This is despite the sector badly lagging the broader market in the first half of the year due to weakness in oil prices and underwhelming earnings results from the major oil producers. 

However, analysts continue to see value in the sector. The energy sector has a forward P/E of 10.5 which is nearly half of the S&P 500. They also like the long-term bullish case for energy given the lack of CAPEX in the space over the past decade despite continued demand growth. Additionally, this past year has seen output cuts from OPEC+ while the US has been buying oil to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve.

Currently, analysts have a buy rating on 60% of stocks in the energy sector which is the most by far. In the first half of the year, the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) was down 8% while the S&P 500 was up 15%. Some reasons are mean-reversion following the sector’s nearly 60% gain last year, a weaker-than-expected Chinese economy, and Russia and other countries finding ways to elude sanctions.

Finsum: Energy stocks underperformed in the first half of the year, but Wall Street analysts continue to remain bullish on the sector due to longer-term supply concerns and compelling value.