One of the consequences of tighter monetary policy is to curtail housing demand by squeezing affordability. As a result, all sorts of housing activity has cooled such as mortgage applications, new home construction, renovations, and house flipping. While there are all sorts of losers, it’s presenting an opportunity for many private real estate funds who are finding a buyer’s market.

 These funds raise money with multi year holding periods so are less affected by the change in the funding environment at least in the short and intermediate-term. Another factor in the real estate market is that many regional banks are pulling back from extending credit given their balance sheet concerns. Overall, it’s a risk for the broader economic outlook but a unique opportunity for private real estate investors.   

And, more money is being allocated to real estate - public and private. In the first-half of the year, 43% of institutions surveyed, increased their allocation to real estate by an average of 76 basis points. Sovereign wealth funds also increased real estate exposure from 6.9% to 7.9%. In terms of geography, private real estate continues to be dominated by North American investors.

An informed consumer is an…. Yep; you get the idea

That brings us to direct indexing, which yields a host of benefits for investors, according to avaloninvest.com. By toting a firm grasp of directing indexing’s concept, what can investors do? Why, make informed decisions about their portfolios and the most of their returns, that’s what.

Meantime, preferences and goals are always nice and with direct indexing, investors can customize their investments based on both of those elements. Not only that, investors can leverage direct indexing to generate exposure to specific companies within an index. That can come in especially handy among investors who believe deeply in specific companies or sectors.

Investors are opting more and more for direct indexing to spark customized portfolios, according to etftrends.com.

Delving a bit deeper, with direct indexing accounts, such as, for example, Vanguard Personalized Indexing, which offers screens and tilts. They allow advisors to customize the portfolios of their clients, not to mention positions advisors – on the behalf of their clients -- to request custom options.

“You can help clients express environmental, social, and governance (ESG) or socially responsible investing (SRI) preferences,” according to Vanguard. “You can tilt their portfolios toward stocks with certain characteristics like momentum or value, known as factors.”

Bringing home the bacon.

Before taking their talent to UBS Wealth Management, a five person Connecticut team was grinding, managing $700 million in Greenwich, according to a recent announcement, reported advisorhub.com. The team had been at Merrill Lynch.

Also bidding Merrill adieu was John Foley, who managed $340 million in client assets. He landed at RBC Wealth Management, the announcement indicated.

In terms of recruitment, it seems Merrill’s been a favorite target of UBS. That includes a group of 18 in Columbia, South Carolia. A total of $2.6 million was managed by the team. 

In other industry activity, LPL Financial scored a group of finance advisors with $260 million in client assets, according to investmentnews.com. Specializing in retirement programs for schools, universities and hospitals, known as 403(b) plans, the group had previously been at Valic Financial Advisors Inc.

“We specialize in financial education and breaking down complex financial situations to a place where clients can better understand and be more comfortable with their decisions,” said financial advisor Angelo Burns in a statement. He’d been at Valic since 2011.

In the wealth management arena, direct indexing is one of the fastest growing areas and presents a unique opportunity for investors and advisors. Demand for these services is likely to grow due to more awareness of the benefits, desire to lower tax bills, lower costs, and easier implementation.

According to Cerulli Associates, direct indexing assets under management (AUM) are likely to grow at a faster rate than traditional categories like ETFs, mutual funds, and SMAs over the next five years and reach over $1 trillion by the end of the decade. Despite these bullish trends, less than 20% of advisors are familiar with the strategy and recommend it to clients. 

For investors, the biggest appeal of direct indexing is the potential to lower the tax bill and use harvested losses to offset gains in other parts of the portfolio. Continued adoption and awareness at the investor and advisor level are likely to be the biggest growth drivers over the next few years.

Direct indexing is a form of passive investing except investors are able to access the increased customization and tax loss harvesting benefits of active investing. This is done by recreating an index in a personal portfolio with appropriate adjustments to account for an individual’s situation or financial goals. 

Finsum: Direct indexing assets under management is on pace to exceed $1 trillion by the end of the decade. Here are some of the major growth drivers.

Picking the right niche can really help an advisor differentiate themselves in a crowded market to create a unique brand. Typically, a niche means that an advisor is focusing on a particular demographic such as a particular profession or demographic. But, it can also refer to advisors who specialize in specific areas such as financial planning or alternative investing.

Specialization can lead to more knowledge and expertise. It’s also likely that prospects will seek an advisor out who has more experience in their area of interest or need. In terms of the best niches, one strategy is to specialize in a particular stage of the planning process.

Nearly everyone’s most important financial goal is to prepare for retirement. Therefore, retirement planning is an evergreen niche for advisors and also where they can be most impactful. This involves becoming well-versed about various retirement plans and options. Ultimately, it’s about helping retirees and prospective retirees have the best quality of life. 

Another possible niche is to focus on younger clients. This would involve being digitally savvy and understanding their needs and goals with a major emphasis on education around personal finances and investing. Many younger clients also stand to inherit money from older generations given the country’s demographic realities.

Finsum: Picking the right niche is an important decision for every advisor. Here are some tips on picking the right niche and some examples.

JPMorgan upgraded the global energy complex to an ‘overweight’ rating as it sees the possibilities of an energy ‘supercycle’ due to low levels of CAPEX over the past few years and near-term supply shocks. The bank believes that Brent crude oil prices could reach $150 by 2026. It sees upside for major energy producers and operators like Shell, Baker Hughes, and Exxon Mobil.

Oil prices have risen in the second-half of the year with WTI crude oil exceeding $90. This places strain on consumers, adds to inflationary pressures, and complicates chances of a Fed pivot. Oil prices have maintained their gains despite increasing concerns that a recession may be materializing given soft labor and consumption data.

The biggest driver of prices has been stronger than expected demand coupled with OPEC production cuts. It sees a tight supply/demand dynamic lingering over the intermediate-term which means increased susceptibility to geopolitical shocks. Based on current trends, the bank anticipates a 1.1 million barrel per day deficit in 2025 which could widen to 7.1 million barrels per day in 2030. 

Finsum: JPMorgan sees the possibility of an energy supercycle due to demand remaining resilient and supply concerns.

Risk adverse?

Well, perhaps you’ve pulled up to the right window. After all, a big upside of active fixed income management: risk mitigation, according to npifund-com.

Possible problems – before they damage client portfolios – can be traded out of by alert active fixed income managers. What’s more, the site states: “We believe the next problem to address with active management is the leverage bubble in corporate debt. The disproportionately large BBB market, in   particular, “poses a risk to the markets in the event of a wave of downgrades under the right recessionary scenario.”

Meantime, it seems investment strategy and fixed income teams at Vanguard have been burning a little midnight oil.

According to corpaemdisp.essp.c1.vanguard.com, new research from the company’s teams taken a close look into how the growth of a diverse coupon stack in the municipal bond market, followed by, down the line, “aggressive Fed rate hikes put negative convexity front and center in active muni investing.”

Those active managers steering through this environment of souped up rates are gaining leverage. Why? Because they’ve been able to wrap their heads around how to manage negative convexity risk – and they’ve been prudent while they’re at it.  

The retiring type?

Yeah, well, not if you’re the retiree who created the Retiree Portfolio Model – an Excel spreadsheet that can be downloaded -- for retirees, according to bobleheads.org.

Seems as if Forum member BigFoot48, who developed the model, was onto something.

Homing in on a retiree and the lives of their spouse’s, it models their most common financial aspects. That includes pensions, Social Security benefits and living expenses. With that data, a model of their accounts over a period of one to 40 years is used.

With a feature of this model, the user can compare their normal portfolio results with that one includes alternative choices, like performing Roth IRA conversions and selecting alternative Social Security starting ages and benefits, not to mention buying a Single Premium Immediate Annuity.

And talk about visibility. Formulas and results – and that means all of them – can be viewed completely – not to mention the fact that they can be unprotected; paving the way to user customization.

Meantime, monitor the markets, you say? 

Um, among a good chunk of advisors, apparently not.

According to capitalgroup.com, in the U.S., some of the highest growth advisors are 40% more likely to leverage model portfolios in their practice. And that’s at the cost of monitoring the markets, into which they’re sinking less time.

Active fixed income is one of the fastest growing categories in terms of inflows and new issues. It’s taking market share away from mutual funds and passive fixed income ETFs. Now, Vanguard is adding to its active fixed income ETF lineup with the launch of 2 new active fixed income ETFs for later this year.

The Vanguard Core Bond ETF and Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF provide exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds across sectors, credit quality, and durations. The Core Bond ETF will focus on US securities with small allocations to higher-risk areas like high-yield credit and emerging market debt. The Core-Plus Bond ETF will have greater allocations to riskier parts of the fixed income market. Each has relatively low expenses at 0.10% and 0.20%, respectively.

Each of these has a mutual fund counterpart and will be managed by the same management teams, share benchmarks, and have the same costs. Yet, they are considered distinct products. It’s simply a reflection that a portion of investors, specifically younger investors, simply prefer the intraday liquidity and ease of these products vs mutual funds.

Active fixed income is also seeing greater interest due to the current uncertainty regarding monetary policy and the economy’s trajectory. Active managers have greater latitude and more flexibility to navigate this environment in contrast to passive funds. 

Finsum: Vanguard is launching 2 active fixed income ETFs which are based upon successful mutual funds. The active fixed income category is rapidly growing in terms of inflows and new issues.

Equity and fixed income markets were battered following the September FOMC meeting where the committee left rates unchanged but the committee members’ dot plots for the future trajectory of monetary policy and Chair Powell’s press conference had a decidedly hawkish tilt. 

The message was that another rate hike is likely before year end and that rates are likely to stay elevated for longer. Thus, Fed futures markets reduced the odds of rate cuts in 2024, leading to pain for the long-end of the fixed income complex. In contrast, the short-end of the curve saw major inflows as investors look to shield their portfolio from volatility and take advantage of high rates. 

Following the Fed meeting, there was $25.3 million of inflows into the iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF which was about 40% of the total inflows in the previous month. This marks an acceleration of a trend which began last quarter of outflows from longer-term Treasury ETFs and inflows into short-duration Treasury ETFs. 

Supporting this notion is the uncertainty over the economy and monetary policy as this tends to lead to volatility for long-duration assets. Additionally, the flatness of the yield curve means that there isn’t sufficient compensation for the additional duration risk.  

Finsum: Most of the fixed income complex suffered losses following the hawkish FOMC meeting, but one exception was short-duration Treasury ETFs.