Following poor performance in Q3, fixed income is struggling to start the new quarter. SImilar to Q3, the bulk of weakness is in long-duration bonds. This is evident with the iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) which fell to its lowest levels since August 2007. Remarkably, TLT is now at levels prior to the entire bond bull market which began at the depths of the financial crisis as central banks embarked on more than a decade of ultra-easy policy to support the economy.

So far, TLT is down 13% year to date. It’s the largest fixed income ETF, and many investors’ preferred vehicle to get exposure to long-term Treasuries. There is some disagreement on the causes behind the move in long-term yields with some pointing to large amounts of Treasuries that will be auctioned off in the coming months to finance the federal government’s deficits. Others believe that the bond market is finally accepting the reality that inflation is now entrenched and that higher rates are here to stay. 

Some with a longer-term view don’t see much unusual about the breakout in long-term yields given that this tends to happen when central banks embark on tightening policy. As a result, we are seeing the curve un-invert as the spread in yields between short-duration and long-duration bonds continue to shrink.

Finsum: TLT is the most popular fixed income ETF. It’s now at its lowest levels since 2007 as long-term Treasury yields break out to new highs.

The Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign surprisingly has had a muted impact on the broader economy as evidenced by continued expansion despite the highest rate in decades. In terms of the stated goal of curbing inflation, results are mixed as well. 

However, the vector which immediately responded to tighter policy is real estate given that affordability has declined due to higher rates. In some markets, activity has simply cooled, while in those with poor fundamentals, prices are falling more precipitously. 

Within real estate, commercial real estate (CRE) is the most challenged given oversupply and the recent rise of remote work. For Barron’s, Rob Csneryik covers why some contrarian investors are seeing opportunity in the beaten-down sector.

In essence, it’s a buyer’s market with so many traditional sources of funding out of the picture, leading to more favorable terms and higher returns. Further, there is less risk with values already down so much. Many believe that office occupancy rates will start to gradually rise especially if the economy does weaken which would give employers more leverage to force employees back to the office. CRE would also likely benefit from a mild recession as it would compel the Fed to cut rates which would turn a major headwind into a tailwind. 

Finsum: Commercial real estate is the weakest segment of the real estate market. However, some contrarians see opportunities amid the carnage.

It’s a challenging period for fixed income investors given uncertainties around the economic outlook and monetary policy. While some are making bold bets on whether inflation will perk up once again or the economy fall into a recession, CIBC recommends that investors embrace this period of ‘higher for longer’ by focusing on short duration and high quality bonds.

With this strategy, investors can take advantage of generous yields while shielding themselves from potential risks. In terms of the bank’s outlook, its base case remains a moderate slowdown and a mild recession. Yet, it believes that many of these risks have already been priced in which is one factor in its bullishness towards the asset class.

Due to recent data indicating a pullback in consumer spending, weakness in retail sales, and a slowdown in housing activity, the firm believes that recession is more likely than another period of spiking inflation. Further, credit card balances are rising, while excess savings from the pandemic have been basically depleted.

If this scenario were to materialize, inflation would likely trend lower which would give central banks more latitude to loosen policy and lead to price appreciation for fixed income. 

Finsum: CIBC shared some thoughts on the economy and fixed income. It’s bullish on the asset class as it believes a mild recession is likely next year.

Most analysts attribute the current strength in oil to production cuts and discipline exercised by OPEC countries in preparation for a global recession. However, demand has been resilient, contrary to expectations, even with a weak Chinese economy and rising recession risk in many parts of the world. 

According to Haitham Al Ghais, the secretary general of OPEC+, demand is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day over the next couple of years. While many are encouraging the group to increase production in order to provide relief to consumers and temper inflationary pressures, Al Ghais is more concerned about the decline in CAPEX in the oil & gas sector. 

He believes this will lead to an unsustainably tight equilibrium that will be prone to supply shocks and potential shortages. He believes that many in the West are being naive about alternative energy given the world’s reliance on fossil fuels. 

In essence, Al Ghais sees a bigger crisis looming given that he sees oil demand continuing to grow steadily while investments in future production have declined due to poor returns in the past and concerns that alternative energy will displace oil & gas. This is laying the seeds for a future energy crisis in his opinion.

Finsum: OPEC’s secretary general Haitham Al Ghais shared his thoughts on energy, and why he’s especially concerned about the lack of investment in new production.

Direct indexing is the convergence of two developments. One is that we increasingly live in a world of customization and personalization whether it comes to our newsfeeds, food orders, playlists, etc. The other is that research continues to show that most investors are better off investing passively rather than actively managing their portfolios.

At first glance, there seems to be a contradiction between these two notions. However, direct indexing manages to thread the needle by retaining the benefits of passive investing such as diversification and low costs while also allowing for customization in order to account for an investors’ goals and needs.

For instance, a tech executive may have outsized exposure to the industry due to some compensation in the form of stock options. In their own portfolio, they may look to reduce exposure to tech in order to create more diversification and dampen risk. 

Another benefit is that capital gains losses can be more effectively harvested with direct indexing. This means that if the tech executive were to sell some of their stock options, then the tax bill can be lowered by applying harvested tax losses from the direct indexing portfolio.   

Finsum: Direct indexing provides many advantages compared to passive or active management. Here are some of the benefits.

If you’re tinkering with the idea of bonds, consider this: the challenges on the fixed income landscape, according to money.usnews.com. For those who aren’t initiated, individual bonds – which trade over the counter – it can be a tough road to hoe.

That’s where bonds funds come in. For investors, they’re an entrée to diversified bonds. And what about the complexities of direct bond investment? There are none.  

"Given the higher risks and costs associated with portfolios of individual bonds, and the time they take to manage, most investors are better served by low-cost mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs," said Chris Tidmore, senior manager at Vanguard's Investment Advisory Research Center. "This is particularly true in the case of municipal and corporate bonds, which are less liquid and harder to purchase than Treasury bonds."

Meantime, calling it a day was Eric Needleman, global head of Fixed Income, who plans to do so by year’s end, according to an announcement by Stifel Financial Corp., reported yahoo.com.

"We are deeply grateful for Eric’s dedication, leadership, and the lasting impact he has made on our firm,” said Stifel Chairman and CEO Ron Kruszewski. “He set a standard of excellence that will continue to define Stifel's approach to the fixed income business.”

You don’t have to double check a wealth of sources like wikepedia to ferret outthe meaning of succession plaining; it’s simply the way you pinpoint and developing your organization’s possible leaders in the making as well as key employees, according to linkedin.com.

It abets your ability to make sure you maintain continuity, hang onto talent and get ready for changes that weren’t expected. That said, succession planning recruiting posed challenges and is susceptible to mistakes. 

How can you go about circumventing pitfalls and biases in the process? These strategies can help:

Assess your current and future needs

Develop a talent pool and a succession plan

Use objective and consistent methods

Involve multiple stakeholders and perspectives

Monitor and evaluate your results

Broadly speaking, talent development’s on the ascension – and fast – with succession planning squarely in the middle, according to sigmaassessmentsystems.com.

For senior managers and leaders of organizations who need to keep current on industry trends to help their team with the most effective and relevant growth opportunities, succession planning struts important implications.

SIGMA gathered a report on the State of Succession Planning for the year. Four emerging trends:

--Recruiting and retention of staff are the focus of most organizations

--Keeping up with Industry innovation’s key for many organizations to recognize

--Stepping up customer experience is a commitment among many leaders

--The transformation of their brand and culture’s a goal of a significant number of organizations

Each month, more than four million workers walked away from their job, according a 2021 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

Within asset management, active fixed income is in a growth boom based on a surge of inflows and new issuances to meet this demand. There are two secular components as ETFs continue to displace mutual funds as preferred vehicles for fixed income investing, and institutions and advisors become more aware and comfortable with the category. 

And, a cyclical factor is the current market environment given the combination of attractive yields and uncertainty about the trajectory of monetary policy. These environments tend to favor active over passive strategies since active managers have more latitude in terms of credit quality and duration.

In recent months, we’ve seen a frenzy in terms of new issues with Vanguard and Blackrock introducing active ETFs that mirror their own active fixed income mutual funds. Now, Capital Group is joining the fray with the launches of the Capital Group Core Bond ETF (CGCB) and the Capital Group Short Duration Municipal Income ETF (CGSM). Asset managers are responding to demand for these products, or otherwise would lose market share to firms who provide ETF versions of popular mutual funds. 

CGCB invests across the entire fixed income spectrum with a focus on capital preservation and generating income. CGSM invests in municipal debt that is exempt from federal taxes and typically short-duration. 

Finsum: Capital Group is launching two new active fixed income ETFs which is a major trend in the asset management world. 

Despite a down Q3, retail investors continue piling into fixed income ETFs, both long and short-duration. They don’t seem too fazed by the recent hawkishness from the Fed or recent calls for continued strength in yields. 

Last week, inflows into the most popular Treasury ETF - the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) reached its highest levels since March 2020. In Q3, TLT was down 13%. This turned a small yearly gain into a more than 10% decline. Despite this performance, TLT has had $4 billion of inflows in Q3 and has seen short interest decline as well. 

Clearly, retail investors have a contrarian bent as many strategists are calling for further weakness in bonds, and Fed fund futures markets increased their odds of further hikes while decreasing odds of cuts in 2024. 

Some of the inflows into fixed income may be due to concerns about equities and economic growth given recent soft labor and consumption data over the last few weeks. THerefore, they may be looking to take advantage of the highest yields in decades and the potential for price appreciation in the event of a recession or further cooling of inflation. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing continued inflows despite poor performance in Q3. Here are why retail investors may be buying the dip.

Eric Henderson, the president of Nationwide Financial’s annuity division, recently shared some thoughts on annuities and how it can help reduce financial stress for retirees. Henderson has been with the company for nearly 40 years and been instrumental in helping Nationwide’s annuity business grow to over $100 billion in assets. 

He believes that this is a great time for annuities given that short-term rates are above 5% in many instances. It’s been benefiting from volatility in fixed income and equities in addition to a cascade of uncertainties including inflation, monetary policy, recession risk, geopolitics, etc. 

Annuities can help investors side-step these risks while also taking advantage of historically high rates. So far, fixed annuities have seen the biggest increase in sales, but there has been strength in other types of annuities as interest and awareness grows.  

In terms of trends, Feldman sees more shorter-term, annuity products being introduced given the combination of uncertainty and increasing demand. Additionally, he sees the potential for ‘customized’ annuities that are created to fit an individual’s specific needs.   

Overall, he believes that at some point investors evolve from a ‘wealth accumulation mindset’ to focusing more on maximizing income. He believes this is the best time in decades for investors to build healthy income streams, and it also provides needed diversification given a shaky economic outlook. 

Finsum: Nationwide’s head of annuities, Eric Henderson, shared his thoughts on the category’s increase in popularity and some interesting trends.