Inflows into fixed income ETFs have continued despite major losses in bonds over the last couple of months. Further, there is no clear indication when the tide will turn given expectations of high supply in the coming months and ambiguity about the economy, inflation, and Fed. 

The most liquid and popular bond ETF, the iShares 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT) has had $17.9 billion inflows so far this year. Assets under management have swelled to $41 billion as well. The biggest driver of flows is due to institutions, pension funds, and family offices that have a mandate regarding fixed income exposure.

Another factor driving demand is that yields are at their highest level in 16 years due to the Fed’s rate hikes. A longer-term trend that supports fixed income flows is that many investors and wealth managers are increasingly favoring ETFs over mutual funds due to lower costs and better liquidity. 

ETFs could also be better suited for volatile environments given that they can be used to harvest tax losses. Additionally intraday liquidity means that exposures can be shifted more easily to achieve precise targeting. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs continue to experience healthy flows despite significant volatility.

For AdvisorHub, Holt Hackney interviewed Kimberly R. Nelson, an advisor at Coastal Bridge Advisors, on the factors behind her success, and what makes her practice unique. Nelson was ranked #5 on AdvisorHub’s Top 100 RIAs to Watch List and credits her success to using empathy to understand the emotions that are driving the behaviors and actions of her clients. 

Nelson is an empath which means she can intuitively empathize with her wealthy clients. Despite having wealth, her clients still face the same challenges as others along with additional complications. 

Empathy helps her connect with her clients and provides support and resources when it’s needed most. She’s also pioneered serving female clients after divorce who may find themselves with a windfall but no professional network to help them manage this money. 

In terms of her investing philosophy, she believes that quality assets will provide value to a portfolio and outperform in the long-term. She believes that her job is to ‘shepherd’ her clients through periods of volatility and recommends diversified asset allocation and a well-constructed financial plan that reflect the needs and concerns of the clients. 

Finsum: Kimberly R. Nelson is an empath, and she attributes this to her success as a financial advisor. 

Nuveen believes that real estate is an integral asset for multi-asset portfolios especially during periods of volatility and the recent tight correlation between stocks and bonds. Within real estate, the firm favors private real estate due to attractive yields, diversification, and uncorrelated returns. 

According to the firm, private real estate outperforms during bear markets because prices are based on real transactions rather than public markets. This dampens volatility especially during periods of market stress when public equities can go haywire. 

In terms of both public and private real estate, Nuveen favors the industrial sector due to expectations of continued growth in e-commerce and investments in logistics near urban locations. Another factor supporting growth is supply chain diversification which is boosting demand for space near ports on the East Coast and the US/Mexico border. 

It’s also constructive on healthcare, residential, and self-storage. Within the public REIT space, the gaming sector is in favor due to high dividends and strong cash flows. Another tailwind has been consolidation in the space which is leading to upward pressure on rents. 

Nuveen also believes that we are in the final innings of the Fed’s hiking cycle due to inflation moderating which could be a major catalyst for the sector going into next year.

Finsum: Nuveen is bullish on real estate particularly for the industrial, healthcare, and residential sectors. Also, it believes that we are close to the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle. 

Stephen H. Dover, the Chief Market Strategist of Franklin Templeton, shared his thoughts on the rise in bond yields, and whether it should be feared. Higher yields do push up borrowing costs for corporations and households. 

And as long as yields stay elevated, global growth will be lower, profit expectations are squeezed, and there is greater risk to equities and credit markets. However, Dover attributes most of the increase in yields to rising term premiums rather than inflation or increased supply.

Term premiums are the additional yield that investors demand to hold onto longer-duration securities. Long-term rates are composed of 3 factors - inflation expectations, the neutral short-term interest rate path, and term premium. 

Since mid-July, the yield on the 10-year has advanced by more than 100 basis points. In contrast, the yield on the 2-year note is only up about 35 basis points over the same period. Notably, inflation expectations have moderated during that time frame as well, indicating that term premiums are to explain the surge in long-term yields. 

A major reason for the rise in term premiums is the removal of the ‘Fed put’ of the past decade, when central bank intervention was a constant through asset purchases and forward guidance. Overall, increased risk and volatility for long-duration bonds mean that investors need to be paid higher yields. 

Finsum: JPMorgan shared its Q4 fixed income outlook. Its two base-case scenarios are a recession and a period of below-trend growth. 

In a CNBC interview, CAIS CEO Matt Brown commented on the alternative asset market. He believes that a major factor behind the current growth of the category is due to increased access, highlighting venture capital, hedge funds, private real estate, and private equity. 

He forecasts that alternative exposure will continue to increase among investors and advisors along with greater access. He also believes that the traditional 60/40 portfolio will shift and become a 50/30/20 mix between stocks, bonds, and alternatives. This reallocation will result in $10 trillion moving into alternatives over the next few years according to Brown. 

CEO Rob Sechan of NewEdge Wealth also added that alternative investments provide diversification and a better chance of achieving targeted returns especially in an environment of falling returns for stocks and bonds. 

He believes that consistent private market performance is due to greater operating and financial leverage while public securitie performance is too economically sensitive. Investors in private markets are also able to take advantage of dislocations in public markets by buying discounted assets with a long duration during selloffs. Recent examples include the European debt crisis and Silicon Valley Bank. 

Finsum: Alternative investments are becoming a major asset class and increasingly a larger allocation for some investors and advisors.

The IEA issued its outlook for the energy sector. Overall, global demand remains strong with daily demand at 101.9 million barrels, a 2.3 million barrel per day increase from 2022. In recent months, there has been some signs of North American gasoline demand declining but this has been offset by strong demand from Asia. For next year, it forecasts a smaller increase of 900,000 barrels per day.

Global oil production is expected at 101.6 million barrels per day. This is a 1,500,000 barrel per day increase from last year despite less production from OPEC+. So far, there is no impact on oil production from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Yet, there is still a daily shortfall which exacerbates the impact of an escalation in geopolitical risk with the gap being made up by inventories.

The attacks did result in a $3 to $4 spike in oil prices, although prices quickly stabilized and remain off recent highs. Currently, there is a push and pull between upwards pressure on the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia pull back on production while higher interest rates threaten the demand outlook. So far, demand has proven to be resilient contrary to expectations at the beginning of the year. 

Finsum: The IEA issued its report on the oil market. It sees a small shortfall between global supply and demand which is being filled by inventories. 

As the year comes to a close, it presents an opportune moment for financial advisors to revisit strategies and offer valuable advice to clients. A timely topic is tax loss harvesting. And direct indexing is becoming a popular way for investors to accomplish this. Therefore, now is a great time to consider introducing the concept of direct indexing to your clients.

The Value of Tax Loss Harvesting

Tax loss harvesting is a technique that can reduce taxable income by selling securities that have incurred a loss. As we approach year-end, this tax-saving tactic may be appropriate for some of your clients, yet you need a convenient way to make these trades without upsetting their entire portfolio. Direct indexing allows you to accomplish this task.

Direct Indexing: No Longer Just for the Elite

Direct indexing, which involves buying individual stocks directly rather than through a fund, enhances the ability to tax loss harvest. While it's not a new concept, it's becoming more accessible to a broader range of investors. As author Medora Lee pointed out in her recent article in USA Today, "(direct indexing) was once mostly reserved for the affluent with at least $1 million to invest." But things are changing. "With better technology and zero- or low-commission trading now the norm, more people can use direct indexing."

Embracing the potential of direct indexing and tax loss harvesting is another way to demonstrate your value to your clients.

Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) have been part of the investment landscape for several decades. However, a recent article from InvestmentNews.com suggests it's time for financial advisors to revisit the potential these accounts offer.

Driven by technological advancements, SMAs can now be highly adaptable, allowing for the development of customized investment strategies for a wide range of investor account sizes. This enables the alignment of investment approaches with specific investor objectives, such as tax management and adherence to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles.

Finance industry heavyweights are recognizing this potential, with companies like AssetMark, LPL Financial, and Morningstar launching or significantly enhancing their SMA platforms in the past few years. Their initiatives underscore the growing appetite for bespoke portfolio strategies that resonate with today's savvy investors.

Highlighting this trend, Aron Kershner, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, emphasized the modern appeal of SMAs. He described them as uniquely positioned to cater to "outcome-oriented" investors, whether they have philanthropic goals, are seeking an exit from a non-performing equity manager or are managing a highly concentrated stock position.

Given advancements in technology that have increased SMA's capabilities to align with investor's needs, advisors would be well-served to take a closer look at how they can use these accounts to serve their clientele.

Often, there is a mismatch between how an advisor spends his or her time, and what drives ultimate success for the practice. By embracing technology and model portfolios, advisors can free up more time to invest in activities that build their business such as client service, marketing, and prospecting.

Surveys show that client retention and satisfaction are ultimately linked to frequent communication. However, many advisors are spending a chunk of their time managing portfolios and researching investment ideas. In fact, some research indicates that advisor-managed portfolios underperform especially in more volatile markets. 

Now, there are increasingly more complicated and sophisticated investment options which increases the burden on advisors and further compromises client services. With model portfolios, advisors can outsource large parts of the process such as research, portfolio management, and onboarding while providing more options and better performance. 

By outsourcing this function, advisors can also reduce costs and create greater efficiencies. Model portfolios can also help in other areas such as tax management which is another priority for clients. By centralizing information, it can identify opportunities across portfolios and lead to a more personalized experience. 

Ultimately, model portfolios are a way for advisors to leverage technology to drive better outcomes for their clients and business while creating a more efficient practice.

Finsum: Model portfolios offer many benefits to advisors. The primary one is it frees up more time for client service. 

During Q3, there was a net outflow of $1.4 billion from renewable energy funds. Overall, there has been a 23% drop to $65.4 billion in total assets in renewable energy funds from the end of Q2. 

Renewable energy companies have underperformed due to high rates and rising costs which are compressing margins. Given that many of these companies have high multiples, they are more sensitive to rising long-term rates which makes future projected cash flows less valuable.

While there was a burst of enthusiasm around the sector following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), many stocks in the sector are down between 30 and 50% since then. For instance, the iShares Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) is down 39% since the IRA’s passage in August of last year.

Some of the issues they’ve faced include project delays, long timelines for permits in addition to the headwind of higher material costs and interest rates. As a result, many high-profile projects in Europe have been delayed or canceled due to these constraints. Another contributing factor for outflows out of the sector is that artificial intelligence has become the new ‘hot’ growth theme in 2023 with the theme attracting significant flows.

Finsum: Renewable energy funds experienced major outflows in Q3 due to a variety of factors.