Displaying items by tag: hedge funds
Today’s Bear Call from a Top Hedge Fund Manager
(New York)
A top hedge fund manager known for correctly calling both the 200 and 2008 crises, has just put out a very bearish call. Jeremy Grantham, from GMO, is warning investors that the next 20 years of returns are going to be very disappointing. Grantham thinks that even a dovish Fed can’t save this market, saying “you can’t get blood out of a stone”. His view is that the market will return only 2% a year for the next decade, way lower than the ~6% average. “This is not incredibly painful, but it’s going to break a lot of hearts when we’re right”.
FINSUM: We have personally met Grantham and respect him, but this view is ridiculous to us, as it would be from anyone. Tell what the market might do for the next 2-3 years, fine, but making a call on the next two decades is hopeless.
The Market is Getting Dangerously Crowded
(New York)
One of the big outcomes of the huge rout to end last year was that stock pickers had reportedly gone back to doing what they did best—picking individual stocks based on fundamental value, signaling a diversity of holdings. However, in aggregate, that view appears to be hogwash, as new data shows that institutional equity ownership in stocks is at its highest point in years. Goldman Sachs follows this data and tracks how many companies are among the 50 most owned by hedge funds and mutual funds alike. Right now it is 13, which is the highest level since 2017. Industrial and tech stocks were the most held.
FINSUM: The most concentrated stock holdings are, the more risk there is for steep falls in those names.
The Popularity of Hedge Funds is Soaring
(New York)
Everyone knows mutual funds have been on the decline and ETFs on the rise as active management gives way to the rise of passives. However, new data throws a wrench into that narrative—hedge funds are surging in popularity. Hedge funds now account for 28% of all alternative asset demands among investors, just one point shy of private equity, and way up from 12% a year ago. The catch is that hedge funds don’t really look like themselves anymore, with new fund structures, such as separately managed accounts and lower fees, that make them more useful for investors. Co-investing is another big growth area, where major investors invest alongside hedge funds in specific deals.
FINSUM: So hedge funds have surged in popularity, but they are not hedge funds, in the same sense, as before. Further, fees are down, with the average being a management fee of 1.45% and a performance fee of 17%.
These Big Investors See a Meltdown Coming
(New York)
Hedge fund managers have seen a real decline in their reputations over the last decade. Chronic underperformance and the rise of passive vehicles has led to a high degree of skepticism. Therefore, take their comments with a grain of salt. That said, the hedge fund community is ever more loudly saying a new crisis is on the way. Particularly in Europe, famed managers are saying a repeat of the Crisis is coming. These names include Crispin Odey, Alan Howard, Greg Coffey, and Russell Clark.
FINSUM: There is a lot of doom and gloom out there, but there has been for years (periodically). Everyone was saying the same thing in 2015, and here we are three years later with markets much higher and the economy doing well. That said, we do see some storm clouds brewing.
Why Hedge Fund Fees are High
(New York)
Despite the rise of ETFs over the last few years and the weak performance of hedge funds, on average, one of the astounding things in asset management has been the staying power of the latter. Hedge funds long had a “2% and 20%” fee structure as standard, and while most discount a bit from there nowadays, fees are still very high—hundreds of times low-priced ETFs and mutual funds. Bloomberg explains that a big part of that fee goes into paying the brokers that recommend the funds. The payments go by all sorts of names, such as placement fees, payment for shelf space, and retrocessions, but the fact is they boost costs to investors.
FINSUM: Bloomberg tries to make this look dirty, but the reality is that referral fees are standard in many industries. The big question in this area is where this type of arrangement falls when the SEC debuts its new fiduciary rule?