(New York)

Are you hoping for a return to big company buybacks? For the few years before last year’s big losses, buybacks were a big part of the nice returns seen by the market. A return to such behavior, while questionable on the part of companies, would likely help support share prices. Well, JP Morgan thinks it’ll be another major year for buybacks. Just like last year, companies are expected to announce over $1 tn of buybacks on the back of the benefits from Trump’s tax cuts. Overseas cash is expected to help power the repurchases.

FINSUM: We are not particular fond of the underlying financials of buybacks (at least when companies issue debt to do so), but do think this would be very supportive of share prices this year.

(New York)

With the market still facing some volatility after last month’s beating, some investors might be inclined to seek out stocks that may stay relatively safe from big moves. One strategy for doing so could be to look for companies with low debt. Low debt brings greater financial flexibility to companies and generally makes investors much less worried about their ability to meet their obligations. According to Barron’s “Stocks of firms with low debt have outperformed those with higher debt by about one percentage point a year for the past 25 years … Low debt companies are also less volatile than the overall market, on average”.

FINSUM: This seems like a good parameter by which to carve out a safer portion of a portfolio, though as our readers will know, we generally don’t like using historical returns alone as a guide.

(Washington)

Advisors need to be worried about 2020 because some major changes may be on the way. Some of the most prominent Democrats, including presidential candidates are putting forth incredibly progressive proposals which call for heavy tax hikes. For instance, Elizabeth Warren, who will be running for president in 2020, is calling for a wealth tax of 2-3% on those with over $50m of assets. Economists say such a measure would raise almost $3 tn over a decade. Democratic party darling Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Ortez (D-N.Y.) has put forward a plan calling for up to 70% tax rates on the wealthiest Americans.

FINSUM: In our view, the specific plans are not as important at the moment as the overall direction of the Democratic party and its candidates. While this is very divisive policy, it is a reflection of how polarizing national politics have become. It is also notable because this kind of major plan is the type of platform that can really drive Democratic policy going forward. This may become a rallying cry for the party.

(Washington)

Don’t be fooled by the relative calm and quiet surrounding the fiduciary rule space. While the SEC’s BI Rule is being assessed, fiduciary rules are continuing to pop up at the state level all over the country. Nevada and Maryland are now pushing forward state fiduciary rules. They argue that in the absence of a federal rue, it is states’ job to step in and protect residents. The pair of states join many others doing the same, including New Jersey and New York.

FINSUM: You don’t see Nevada and Maryland put on the same list for almost anything! But that is a testament to how widespread this state-based push for fiduciary rules is.

(San Francisco)

Big tech companies got hit badly in last quarter’s selloff. On top of that broad volatility, Facebook has been going through its own particular troubles, most specifically related to the potential impact of its data leaks. However, all the bearishness may be in the past, and right now could be an excellent time to buy the stock, at least according to Jefferies. “FB’s status as leader in Social is unchanged and we see continued upside for FB shares as it digests the social hangover … FB remains a tier 1 platform for advertising spend with Instagram showing positive drivers of growth”, says the bank’s research team. The big growth driver is Instagram, whose revenue is growing at an estimated 60% annually. “We believe over the course of ’19, shares will slowly re-rate as rev growth & margin outlook become clearer”, says Jefferies.

FINSUM: We would tend to agree with this assessment. Despite all the concerns over data privacy, Facebook still has a very solid underlying business that is growing strongly.