Displaying items by tag: valuations

Thursday, 21 March 2024 12:05

UBS Late to Wealth Management M&A

This time last year, UBS was embarking on its takeover of the distressed Credit Suisse. Understandably, this slowed its pursuit of other M&A targets. However, the bank is now ready to target larger wealth management firms.

UBS CEO Sergio P. Ermotti recently spoke at the Morgan Stanley European Financials conference. He sees the bank targeting US wealth managers for acquisitions in an effort to boost the profitability of this division. His goal is to narrow the gap between UBS and its rivals following a 72% decline in the unit’s Q4 earnings. 

However, many are skeptical about UBS’ strategy given the aggressive moves made by competitors in the last few years. According to Larry Roth, the managing partner at RLR Strategic Partner, “UBS could be late to the M&A party, which already has significant, well-run firms that are having success in this area.” Further, attractive targets are likely to have multiple bidders and rich valuations. 

Another concern is that there is no guarantee that these large acquisitions will work. A recent example is UBS’ attempted purchase of Wealthfront for $1.4 billion in January 2022 with the intention that it could help the bank recruit Wealthfront’s younger clients. The deal was scrapped by regulators and shareholders. 

Acquisitions are essential for UBS to fuel growth, given its challenges in retaining talent. UBS's advisors generate more than $1 million in average annual revenue and fees. This makes them an appealing target for RIAs or independent broker-dealers with more earnings potential. 


Finsum: UBS is betting on a more aggressive M&A strategy to bolster its US wealth management division. Yet, many believe that the bank’s efforts may not succeed given higher valuations for attractive targets and recruiting challenges.

Published in Wealth Management

2024 has been underwhelming so far for REITs, as evidenced by the iShares US Real Estate ETF’s YTD 4.5% decline, while the S&P 500 is up 9% YTD. Two major reasons for this underperformance are continued struggles for the office segment and less clarity about the outlook for monetary policy, following a series of stronger than expected labor market and inflation data.

However, the intermediate-term outlook for the sector remains favorable due to attractive yields and earnings growth despite a challenging, near-term environment. Further, most segments are in good shape. According to Steve Brown, the senior portfolio manager at American Century Investments, “The REIT industry is very diversified among different sectors like data centers, towers, and industrial, and office is only about 4 or 5 percent of the index. So while office has issues, many other property sectors have pricing power and can raise rents greater than inflation.” 

He also favors public REITs over private REITs, as public REITs are cheaper while offering more liquidity. He notes that many private REITs are still trading at or just above net asset value (NAV), while public REITs are trading at an average 20% discount to NAV. Overall, he sees a much more benign environment in 2024, especially once the Fed starts cutting rates.  


Finsum: REITs have had a rocky start to the year. However, the fundamentals for the sector continue to improve, while many of its challenges are already reflected in depressed valuations.

Published in Eq: Real Estate
Tuesday, 06 February 2024 05:44

Will Value Stocks Outperform in 2024

Value stocks have consistently underperformed growth stocks for many years. Yet, there are some signs that 2024 could herald a change in trend. Underperformance in value stocks was exacerbated in 2023 as many growth stocks, in the tech sector, saw huge gains due to excitement around artificial intelligence (AI). 

 

However, this could present a silver lining for value stocks as they are historically cheap, and mean-reversion could lead to solid gains. Further, growth stocks have become quite expensive, following the most recent rally, and there could be rotation into value especially if earnings don’t meet investors’ lofty expectations.

 

Value stocks are primarily comprised of healthcare, industrial, and financial stocks. A major impediment over the past year has been the struggles in the banking system due to high rates and an inverted yield curve. This means that lending is not as profitable, while banks are paying high rates on deposits but holding loans that were made when rates were much lower. But, there could be some relief coming as the Fed signals it will look to cut rates later this year. 

 

In addition to the path of monetary policy, the economy re-accelerating would be another positive catalyst for the sector. Many value stocks are economically sensitive and would see an increase in top and bottom-line numbers. However if investors are bearish on the economy but want exposure to value, they can stick with utilities and consumer staples which would outperform in a lower growth circumstance. 


Finsum: Value stocks underperformed in 2023. Here’s why 2024 is shaping up to be better, and under what circumstances, value will outperform growth. 

 

Published in Eq: Value
Tuesday, 06 February 2024 05:40

3 Important Trends in the Energy Sector

The last couple of years have been a wild ride for energy markets including developments like oil prices briefly going negative during the pandemic, Saudi Arabia releasing supply to discipline OPEC members, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, etc. While some volatility and uncertainty is assured given geopolitics, investors in the sector will be rewarded for having a long-term mindset and focus on fundamentals.

 

This includes being aware of the trends shaping the industry. In terms of oil, it’s clear that supply and demand is trumping geopolitical risk. This is evident as oil prices remain under $80 per barrel despite a large increase in MidEast tensions and the war between Russia and Ukraine continuing. More relevant to price is that production remains plentiful, especially from the US, while demand has been less strong than expected due to weakness from China and Europe. 

 

Another trend is that M&A should continue in the sector following a slew of deals at the end of last year. Large producers are eager to lock down high-quality properties. Valuations also remain attractive, while companies in the sector have large amounts of cash on the balance sheet following years of capital discipline. 

 

Finally, investments in renewables will continue despite recent struggles. The IEA is forecasting that 460 gigawatts of renewable energy production will be added. In the US, the EIA sees wind and solar production surpassing coal for the first time. 


Finsum: Oil prices have remained under $80 per barrel despite a slew of geopolitical risks due to robust supply and weaker than expected demand. 

 

Published in Eq: Energy

Two of the largest domestic natural gas producers and leaders in shale production, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, have agreed to merge in a $7.4 billion deal. This continues a wave of M&A activity in the energy sector. For 2024, this is expected to continue given that many companies are flush with cash, while valuations are also attractive.

 

The merger is an all-stock transaction and is expected to close in the second quarter. According to Chesapeake CEO Nick Dell’Osso, the merger will enable them to compete on an international scale and lead to lower costs. The new, combined company will have a new name and a market cap of around $24 billion. It forecasts 15 years of inventory and expects a 20% increase in dividends due to “significant synergies” and an increase in free cash flow generation over the next 5 years. 

 

Last year, there were a handful of deals in the sector as ExxonMobil bought Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion, while Chevron bought Hess for $53 billion. Both companies were looking to boost production capacity. In 2024, analysts are forecasting that major energy producers will be looking to acquire high-quality shale holdings in public and private markets.


Finsum: Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy agreed to a $7.4 billion merger. Analysts are expecting more M&A activity in the sector in the coming year.

 

Published in Eq: Energy
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