Displaying items by tag: inflation

The Fed hiked rates at the latest FOMC meeting but they were partially forced to with just about every measure of inflation hitting 30-year highs. However, more importantly they project that the federal funds rate will hit 2.75% by the end of 2023. This may have been the first hike in years but it will be one of eleven if they want to hit that mark. The bond market is pessimistic as they not only are projecting less hikes, but slower growth as well. The yield curve is indicating inflation will be under control but it might be costly. Typically this means that the Fed won’t mean to hike as frequently as they are indicating. There has been a lot of action in the TIPS market and it is indicating they expect inflation to average just shy of 2.8% in the next decade.

Finsum: Markets are most likely right in this scenario and that fewer rate hikes will get inflation under control; hopefully the economy can take the hit.

The U.S. is seeing 30-year records on inflation, and whole generations of American’s have never seen inflation this high. Even worse inflation is even more elevated for healthcare services. Healthcare inflation is expected to be nearly 12% for the next two years according to HealthView Services. This could be a huge hole in retirement savings as a couple of retirees today can expect to spend over $85k on healthcare, those retiring in a decade over $160k and those in the next two decades just shy of $260k. Moreover, social security won’t be enough as the cost of living adjustment doesn’t track healthcare inflation or even standard inflation. Meaning healthcare costs will eat away at most of Social Security.

Finsum: HSAs are more valuable than ever given these ridiculous healthcare inflation costs.

Many investors have moved off of REITs and they are trading well below their 200-day moving averages. This makes them a value proposition, particularly as volatility starts to rise. Uncertainty particularly around Ukraine and Russia is fueling volatility but its uncorrelated with REIT volatility which gives it a huge risk advantage on top of it all they are more robust to inflation. Two great REITs to consider with great value at the moment are Alexandria Real Estate Equities and Crown Castle International. These REITs have healthcare and telecom exposures respectively which are in a particularly attractive position as healthcare spending is a higher portion of budgets and 5G is exploding.

Finsum: It’s easy to see that alternatives should be seeing inflows given the volatility in traditional equity and bond markets.

Bond yields have been on a rollercoaster and the market seems to be having trouble making up its mind about the direction. On the one hand investors are fearful over Fed rate hikes and, increasingly, how soaring oil prices will drive up inflation. On the other hand, there is an element of anxiety that the war in Ukraine might scuttle global growth, which would point towards lower yields in the future. Perhaps the worst outcome though is both: stagflation.

FINSUM: In our view, the whipsawing of yields is misguided. Oil is not a big enough component of the economy to cause inflation to spin out of control and if you compare the macro outlook of today to three weeks ago, it is clearly more bearish. Thus, we think yields will trend downward so long as this conflict continues.

Inflation and interest rate risks are two of the most prominent risks in the economy, and they are the reason so many are fleeing traditional fixed income. One place many investors are turning is to annuities, but how does interest rate risk affect annuities? For fixed annuities appreciating rates mean investors can get a better payout with the same premium and generally expand the offerings. For variable annuities, it's trickier as they are more tied to equity markets. If the Fed hikes too aggressively and markets respond adversely this could hurt variable rate products but if the stock market stays steady they won’t be under much pressure. As an income value proposition generally they both perform better than bonds in raising rates because higher yields (inflation and interest rates both moving) suppress bond prices directly.

FINSUM: Annuities have a lot of value in rising rates environments as an income product especially compared to government securities and CDs.