Displaying items by tag: inflation
Biden Claims Tax Hikes and Spending Will Slow Inflation
Another post pandemic super bill is flowing through the economy this time with a Biden name tag, and the president claims the $1.2 trillion dollar stimulus will lower inflation. The idea is the new bill will lubricate the American supply chains and have goods flowing easier and thus lowering costs. It's difficult to say if this bill will un-kink the supply chains or just boost demand and prices even more. Americans are already worried about $4.50 gass and surging food prices. Inflation hit a 31 year record this month, and inflation expectations aren’t slowing according to the Michigan survey of consumer expectations. The median projection is 4.6% over the next year, up nearly 2% from a year ago. Additionally the Biden administration is planning on pushing the $1.75 trillion dollar Build Back Better in the upcoming weeks.
FINSUM: A stimulus bill would have to be hyper targeted at supply chains to have the effect Biden is aiming at, and in combination with the BBB these bills will only further the U.S.’s inflation problem.
Inflation: A Double Whammy for Bond Investors
Throughout 2021 one of the biggest worries for investors, business owners, and policy makers has been the return of inflation…see the full story on our partner’s site
Stagflation is a Big Risk
Headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, rose at a staggering 4.4% annual growth at the end of September, which is the highest number posted since 1991. This isn’t necessarily the Fed’s preferred inflation metric because food and energy prices are more volatile than other areas, but even excluding those categories core inflation was at 3.1%. On top of that, personal income is down almost 1%, which makes that inflation gain even more painful. Policy makers are worried about overall economic health as stagflation becomes a real possibility with GDP coming in at just 2%, the weakest quarter since the recovery started. Treasury Secretary Yellen says that yearly inflation will remain high but she expects monthly inflation to come down as the year closes, with headline figures coming down towards the target of 2%. On the positive side, wages and salaries kept up this month, hitting 4.6% but that still poses challenges for the labor market in its own way.
FINSUM: Inflation is still posting strong gains but keep your eyes on the monthly annualized numbers to gauge if what Yellen says is accurate.
The Bond Market is Getting Ravaged
The fixed income market is in some of the worst shapes in recent memory. Both government and corporate debt have lost a 15 year high of 4.4% this year. Regardless if inflation is being driven by central banks and trillion-dollar stimulus or the supply chain disruptions Powell is claiming the bottom line is inflation is eating at the ‘fixed income’ bond investors have relied on. The U.K., Euro area, and Japan haven’t exactly been a shelter dropping 7.5%, 8%, and 9.8% respectively. On top of all of this, the Fed and other central banks are tightening, eroding the value of existing bonds. There has been shelter if investors are willing to look to emerging markets, such as China but overall investors need to be more flexible and can’t rely on index bond investing to survive.
FINSUM: High-yield corporate debt is where investors are going to have to look domestically to get the return after inflation they are used to.
Fed May Cause Volatility Jump
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last week on a panel hosted by the ECB, and relayed his frustration about the ongoing inflation pressures in the US economy. Powell said the economy’s most important concern is getting people vaccinated and containing Covid’s delta variant. Powell said the key inflationary pressures remain supply chain bottlenecks in the US economy. These supply constraints have the U.S.’s key inflationary measure (core personal consumption expenditure) elevated to its highest level in 30 years. The FOMC has raised their expectation for inflation from 3% to 3.7%, and Powell said this could continue into 2022. Powell’s Analysis was backed up by both Japan and the ECB’s respective leaders.
FINSUM: The supply shock to the economy remains as chip shortages still persist. As long as supply chains remain disrupted the unemployment/GDP and inflationary goals of the Fed will remain in conflict.