Displaying items by tag: dollar

After years of low volatility, foreign exchange trading is roaring back to life. The currency desk, once overshadowed by stocks and bonds, is thriving as global interest rate policies diverge and trade tensions resurface. 

Optiver’s FX volumes have doubled since 2024, prompting a shift to 24-hour operations, with new hires and strategic relocations to meet surging demand. Banks are also rebuilding their currency trading teams, recruiting veterans from the 2008 financial crisis alongside fresh talent eager to navigate the revived market turbulence. 

Hedge funds are fueling the momentum, with record-breaking activity in Asian currencies and a renewed belief that FX can add real value to portfolios. 

Finsum: Whether this marks a long-term shift remains uncertain, but for now, the “sleeping giant” of foreign exchange has undeniably awakened.

Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, emphasized the critical importance of maintaining the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency during his testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. 

He advocated for prioritizing productive investments over wasteful spending to stimulate economic growth while addressing vulnerabilities in supply chains and strategically using sanctions for national security. Bessent reiterated support for making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent, warning of a historic $4 trillion tax hike if Congress fails to act. 

He also outlined plans for pro-growth policies, including reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% for U.S.-based manufacturers and exempting tips and Social Security income from taxation. Bessent underscored Trump's aggressive tariff plans to counter perceived unfair trade practices and strengthen domestic industries. 

Finsum: This administration could usher in a transformative era but we’ll see how tariffs and tax cuts off set for economic Growth. 

The ongoing unwinding of yen carry trades could lead to more turbulence in the markets this month, warns Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management. As U.S. yields drop and the dollar weakens, the yen is expected to gain strength, potentially triggering sell-offs similar to those seen in August. 

The practice of carry trading, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies like the yen to invest in higher-return assets, is facing disruption due to Japan’s recent interest rate increases. Lien suggests that if stock markets experience significant downturns, the yen's value could continue to rise, reversing its longstanding undervaluation. 

This shift may impact asset prices globally in the coming years, with additional volatility likely as the U.S. economy faces growing pressures. September, often volatile for stocks, could see more dramatic market moves.

Finsum: This is one of the most important currency stories to watch in the coming weeks as rate cuts look to be very aggressive. 

Stocks had one of their worst days in months as the market fell off 2% and sent volatility measures such as the VIX spiking. Wallstreet’s ‘fear gauge’ was up nearly 4% as a result. This all happens as the dollar is reaching very strong levels and almost parodies the euro. While that might be great for those on a summer vacation in the Mediterranean, it's bad news for investors, because it reflects a more fed tightening, rising treasury rates, and inflation. Investors are concerned about rising volatility once again after it felt like it was behind them. With healthy job numbers and inflation trying to turn a corner, things looked bright and the market felt it, but the reality of a one-off good inflation report is setting in.

Finsum: Advisors need strategies for resilience vs inflation and excess volatility because its persistence seems strong.

Monetary policy is diverging in emerging markets with some countries keeping policy rates low and others beginning to tighten, and investors are beginning to make a ruling. Countries like Russia, Columbia and South Korea all experienced currency appreciation due to tighter policy, and certain investment classes are being rewarded. Bond markets are signaling a yield curve inversion in Russia, pricing in future rate hikes, but this has been okay for oil exports. While at the other end, Turkey saw its yield curve climb and its currency—the lira—perform poorly in October. There were mixed signals from Brazil, where the fiscal policy signaled lots of public spending. The monetary policy started to tighten to curb inflation, and as a result, markets punished the Brazilian real.

FINSUM: There are diverging schools of thought globally as to how to respond to the combination of the world’s energy crisis and the lingering Covid-19 pandemic.