Monetary policy is diverging in emerging markets with some countries keeping policy rates low and others beginning to tighten, and investors are beginning to make a ruling. Countries like Russia, Columbia and South Korea all experienced currency appreciation due to tighter policy, and certain investment classes are being rewarded. Bond markets are signaling a yield curve inversion in Russia, pricing in future rate hikes, but this has been okay for oil exports. While at the other end, Turkey saw its yield curve climb and its currency—the lira—perform poorly in October. There were mixed signals from Brazil, where the fiscal policy signaled lots of public spending. The monetary policy started to tighten to curb inflation, and as a result, markets punished the Brazilian real.
FINSUM: There are diverging schools of thought globally as to how to respond to the combination of the world’s energy crisis and the lingering Covid-19 pandemic.