Displaying items by tag: asia

Leading up to the much-anticipated rate cut, global investors increased their equity fund purchases, anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve that would kick off a broader cycle of reductions. A total of $5.21 billion was poured into equity funds, slightly below the $6.54 billion invested the previous week. 

The Fed’s 50-basis point rate cut spurred risk appetite, particularly in Asia and Europe, where equity funds attracted strong inflows. Meanwhile, U.S. equity fund sales declined to a four-week low. Sector funds, particularly in financials and tech, saw outflows for the third consecutive week, while bond funds maintained their appeal, continuing a 39-week streak of net inflows. 

Additionally, precious metal funds attracted investors for a sixth week, while energy funds faced a reversal with net sales of $129 million. The data reflects increased confidence in riskier assets and a shift away from money market funds, which saw outflows after six weeks of positive investments.

Finsum: There are still two more rate hikes on the forecast if investors want to take note of these trends in equity markets.

Global stocks are anticipated to recover from recent market turmoil and gain modestly in the coming months, driven by expectations of forthcoming interest rate cuts by major central banks, according to a Reuters poll of over 150 equity strategists.

Despite a sharp decline in early August due to the unwinding of leveraged positions and weaker U.S. jobs data, the MSCI global index has regained most of its losses, now up 14% for the year. Analysts expect corporate earnings to outperform in local markets, supporting further growth in key equity indices, though at a slower pace compared to last year. 

While 13 of 15 major indices are forecasted to post single-digit gains by year-end, with no outright global correction anticipated, the pace of gains in 2024 is expected to moderate, reflecting a tempered outlook amidst a resilient macroeconomic picture.

Finsum: We’ll monitor how exchange rates fluctuate as inflation normalizes across countries. 

Asian currencies experienced a significant rally, reaching their highest levels in seven months. This surge was driven by diminishing concerns about a U.S. recession, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near future, and a more favorable economic outlook within the region. 

The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index increased by 0.6%, with notable gains from the South Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht. These currency gains were supported by stronger-than-expected economic data and political developments in key Asian markets. Additionally, regional equities also rose, reflecting growing investor confidence in Asia’s economic prospects.

The South Korean won and the Philippine peso were among the top performers, with the won reaching its highest level since March and the peso marking its biggest gain since November. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen also appreciated, with traders closely monitoring potential hints from the Bank of Japan's governor on the future direction of the country's monetary policy.

Finsum: The demand driving these currency shifts could really come into full swing if the Fed successfully dodges a recession.

Demand for US Treasuries continues to be strong despite high levels of issuance. According to the Treasury Department, foreign holdings of Treasuries saw their fifth monthly increase, reaching new highs.

As of the end of February, foreigners held $7.97 trillion of US Treasuries, nearly 9% higher than February 2023. Japan is the largest holder of Treasuries, outside of the US, at $1.17 trillion, which is the most since August 2022. 

However, some believe that the country may be looking to boost the value of its currency, as it hit a 34-year low against the dollar earlier this week. In 2022, Japan intervened in currency markets by selling dollars and buying the yen when it was at similar levels. As a result, its holdings declined by $131.6 billion due to these transactions. 

Another trend is that China’s holding of Treasuries continues to decline. The country held $775 billion in Treasuries, a decline of $22.7 billion from the previous month. This is the lowest amount since March 2009. 

Europe saw the biggest monthly increase of $27 billion and owns $320 billion in total. Great Britain also saw a $9 billion increase in Treasury holdings to reach $701 billion. 

Finsum: Despite recent volatility in US Treasuries, foreign holdings continue to rise. Japan remains the largest owner of Treasuries, while China continues to reduce its stake.

Japanese stocks have been mired in a multi-decade bear market since 1990. Remarkably, Japanese equities had an annual gain of -0.3% between 1990 and 2023. Some of the major reasons for this poor performance was that stocks become extremely expensive at the peak in 1990, companies were less profitable than European and US competitors, deflation was raging, and the currency was also very strong which hurt exports.

Now, we are at the opposite end of the spectrum in many ways. Japanese companies are flush with cash and have low levels of debt. Deflation is no longer a threat, while the Japanese yen has weakened and become quite competitive with other countries. On the aggregate, profit margins have risen from 3% to 5.5% since the early 90s. In turn, Japanese stocks have returned 7.4% annually since 2010. 

Another positive development for equities is that activist investors have been successful in unlocking shareholder value on balance sheets. The government is also actively encouraging consolidation within fragmented industries and companies to focus on maximizing shareholder value. 

Despite these initiatives, Japanese stocks still remain quite cheap with half of companies trading below book value. Yet, there is some compelling evidence to believe that Japanese stocks have more upsides given this combination of catalysts.

Finsum: Japanese stocks are quite cheap relative to the rest of the world. In addition, there have been quite a few positive developments in recent years in terms of corporate behavior and government policy.