(New York)

The market has been very worried about a potential bond market meltdown. Both investment grade and high yield debt have seen major losses lately as fears have mounted about high corporate debt heading into a possible recession and downturn in earnings. One of the big worries is that there will be a surge in BBB (the lowest rung of investment grade) debt that falls into junk status. However, Bank of America is more sanguine, arguing that growth is solid and companies have actually been issuing much less debt, and will continue to do so. Their view is that companies are in a much sounder financial position than before the last crisis.

FINSUM: The debt gorge that happened over the last several years is inevitably going to have consequences, and we think BAML is way too relaxed about the risks.

(Chicago)

McDonalds has been slowly reinventing itself over the last few years. Big menu changes and and healthier items have been a major part of that shift. Now the restaurant chain is doubling down on one its recent focus areas—breakfast. A few years ago McDonalds decided to make a handful of breakfast items available all day. The change was a hit with customers and investors and helped grow sales for the year. However, recently, McDonalds has blamed it for slowing sales as its morning business has actually weakened because consumers can get breakfast items all day. Now it is changing its tact by offering breakfast sandwiches starting at just a Dollar and offering extra-meat breakfast sandwiches all day.

FINSUM: It seems all day breakfast has cannibalized some sales for old Mickey D’s. The dollar menu approach in the morning should help.

(New York)

Walmart has taken a pounding this year. The stock is down 8.4% even though it has seen solid earnings performance. The reason why? Shares first got beat up early in 2018 when investors worried its digital strategy wasn’t taking hold. Then in the middle of the year worries about margins cropped up. Finally, in November, shares saw losses even though Walmart beat earnings and raised payouts. Interestingly, the shares were a counterpoint to the rest of retail, which saw gains for much of the year.

FINSUM: We think Walmart is a great buy. It has good same store sales momentum and its ecommerce operation is growing rapidly. This seems like a good buying opportunity to us, especially as the brand sells consumer staples, which will hold up even in an economic downturn.

(New York)

Where to put one’s money in 2019? That is the difficult question every investor must face at the moment. For a long time “TINA”, or “there is no alternative”, was the mantra which kept guiding capital into stocks alongside miniscule yields. Now with rates and yields rising and stocks having seen big losses, where should investors turn? The reality is that bonds seem likely to outperform stocks next year, at least according to JP Morgan. The bank thinks EM debt is likely to have a good year as once the Fed stops tightening the Dollar will likely weaken, giving a boost to EM assets.

FINSUM: In our view, a lot of damage has already been done to stocks and there are now some very interesting buys. Furthermore, short-term debt has seen yields rise high enough that you can get decent returns without a lot of interest rate risk.

(New York)

If this stat doesn’t put the current state of the market into perspective for you, nothing is likely to: the fall in shares this month has been the worst December since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Stocks have fallen 10% alone this month, a big chunk of the 16% fall since the September peak.

FINSUM: So some of the fears about the Fed have been eased today because of the NY Fed’s comments (not that those mean much), but the new fear is about the threatened government shutdown. We imagine the shutdown will work itself out, but the trade war and threat of recession loom large. It is hard to imagine any significant rally before the New Year.