(Washington)

The SEC’s Best Interest rule has been making its way through the regulatory machine without much attention lately. Everyone knows it is looming, but no one has been sure of the timing or what the newest iteration would look like. Well, it is becoming clearer now as the SEC has announced that it will vote on whether to adopt the new rule on June 5th. There are four different items the SEC commission will discuss. Some of them are remnants from the last version, but others like the “solely incidental” item, are not clear.

FINSUM: It looks like we will be able to see the new version of the rule within a few weeks. The SEC was facing a major uphill battle to make the BI rule amenable to all sides, and we shall soon see how much progress they made (and how it might fit with a forthcoming DOL rule 2.0).

(San Francisco)

The FANGs have gotten a lot of market pressure lately, both in the form of sell-offs, but also from analysts, who say tech companies will be among the worst hit by tariffs. However, one fund, Light Street Capital, which has made great returns betting on new technology companies, thinks Netflix has a lot of room to run. They reason they like Netflix is that the company has intentionally made its product very cheap in order to grow its subscriber base. They think there is a lot of room for Netflix to raise prices without alienating customers. Consumers have gotten used to paying $100 a month for cable, but are currently only paying $9-$12 per month for Netflix.

FINSUM: Netflix has a lot of room to expand margins. Think about the effect to earnings if it raised prices to a still very tolerable $14.99 per month.

(New York)

The chances of a war breaking out with Iran are not minute. They are probably not high, but significant enough that it is worth having a plan. It may be unseemly to think about asset prices during armed conflict, but just because a war has broken out does mean one’s duty to protect clients ends. The key thing to remember is not to panic. Selling into a panic is a bad idea, and historically speaking, the market tends to be higher six months later anyway. Generally speaking, that is the trend in past armed conflicts. There is an initial fall in stocks, only to be followed by a subsequent rise over the next six months to above the starting level.

FINSUM: We do not think a war with Iran will happen. This seems more like simple political wrangling.

(New York)

JP Morgan thinks bonds are the best of a bad bunch. That is essentially what JP Morgan is saying about the asset class. The investment bank says that bonds are not in a bubble, though there are no good discounts either. JP Morgan, which is the world’s largest underwriter of bonds, says that despite the 100 bp dive in Treasury yields, bonds are not a bubble ready to burst. The bank thinks the Fed will stay on hold, not cut, until the end of 2020 given the increased pressure the trade war will put on the economy.

FINSUM: Despite the speed with which the bond market has seen yields fall, it is relatively hard to imagine them rising back to over 3% any time soon (even if China dumps its holdings). Thus, we generally agree with JP Morgan’s assessment.

(New York)

The dreaded moment is coming. The DOL has been hinting for some time that it would release a new version of its infamous fiduciary rule, but now we have a concrete timeline. The agency says the new rule will be released in December. It is unclear the extent to which this new rule will sync with the SEC’s best interest efforts, but most seem to think the two rules will dovetail nicely. This will be the third time the DOL has issued a fiduciary rule. The first time was in 2010, then again in 2015 (defeated last year).

FINSUM: No details on how this will look, so hard to speculate. However, given how expansive the rule was last time, we will not be surprised if there are some surprises here.