Displaying items by tag: tariffs
Markets and the global economy got some very welcome news this weekend. On the sidelines of the G-20 conference, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi came to a “truce” in their trade war spat this weekend after what they both called a “high successful meeting”. Accordingly, several industry-specific stocks should react well to the news. These stocks are: Stanley Black & Decker, Caterpillar, Emerson Electric, AGCO Corporation, and 3M.
FINSUM: Many of these stocks already have big tariff-driven headwinds in their 2019 outlooks, so the possibility for big reversals seems likely. A lot of gloom had already set in, which means there is significant upside.
The market has been worried about trade for almost half a year now, ever since the rhetoric surrounding it began heating up in June. It has been a major factor in several volatility events in stocks, including in October’s big selloffs. However, a meeting this weekend has the potential to put those worries to rest. Alongside the G20 summit this weekend, Trump and Xi will meet for dinner to discuss the trade tensions between their countries.
FINSUM: Trump and Xi seem like two men that get along well personally, but have an immense amount of competing interests that they need to represent. That said, we have faith that good personal relationships can help bridge such differences. (e.g. see the Cold War)
In what comes as an almost apocalyptic announcement for Apple investors, President Trump indicated yesterday that he may impose a tariff directly on iPhones. When asked about whether he would do so, Trump said “Maybe. Maybe. Depends on what the rate is … I mean, I can make it 10%, and people could stand that very easily”. One analyst summarized the development this way, saying “The Street will not be taking this news lightly as with the litany of bad news Apple (and its investors) have seen over the last month … this tariff threat on iPhones out of left field from Trump and Beltway will surely add to this white-knuckle period for Apple”.
FINSUM: We don’t think this will happen. If Trump tried to raise iPhone prices 10% he would likely have a popular revolt (from both sides of the aisle) on his hands. He certainly doesn’t want that.
One of the big beneficiaries of all the geopolitical events of this year, as well as of rates hikes, has been small caps. Smaller companies tend to perform better in economic expansion, and they look more likely to hold up to foreign trade tensions as they have a more domestic focus. After hitting records in August, small caps are now in correction territory, having lost 10% from their high. They are now underperforming large caps for the first time this year as many see trade tensions easing.
FINSUM: Small caps sometimes suffer at the end of economic expansions, so this move makes sense. Still an almost 9% loss in the Russell 2000 this month is rough.
A trade war is in full swing. While the US finally closed an updated trade deal with Mexico and Canada this weekend, the big battle with China is still revving up. Both sides have raised tariffs considerably in recent weeks and have canceled various negotiations and meetings. With that in mind, Goldman has put out a list of stocks they say will perform well in the ongoing trade battle. Overall, Goldman says shares with high and stable margins are in the best position to pass along cost pressures, which means they are the best bet for investors. “Companies with high pricing power are well-positioned to pass through input cost pressure to consumers, preserving high margins … The market typically rewards companies with high margins when the outlook for corporate profitability worsens”, says the bank. Some of the stocks listed include Autozone, Adobe, Coca-Cola, VeriSign, Ralph Lauren, and Expedia, among a total list of 33 companies.
FINSUM: We like the approach and diversity of this list of shares. We do think a commanding market position will be key to maintaining margins, so agree with Goldman’s view here.