When and if the US-China trade deal finally happens, make sure to sell. At least that is what Bloomberg is arguing. In a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the news, Bloomberg thinks the completion of a deal should be a sell trigger. The trade situation itself is shaping up as a lose-lose for investors. Either it will be a symbolic-only deal that is short on details and does little to actually resolve tension, or Trump may walk away from the table with no deal (like with North Korea). In either situation, it is hard to see the market celebrating.
FINSUM: We tend to agree with this view. The way this is shaping up, it does not seem like there is going to be some grandiose trade accord that solves everyone’s issues.
In what sounds like a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news”, a major Wall Street figure is arguing that as soon as the US and China reach a trade deal, the big rally in risk assets will be over. The former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, Shawn Matthews, argues that “Right now, it’s a risk-on mentality -- you want to be long riskier assets until you get a deal with China … When that happens you certainly want to be looking to scale back”. One of Matthews’ worries is that bond markets are following suit, signaling to him that this is a false rally. “If it was truly a risk-on world and people believed it and it was an extended trade, then you would see the 10-year start to back up. That’s a clear sign there’s some concern about what’s going on out there”, said Matthews.
FINSUM: This is quite an interesting take on the whole situation. We are going to hold off on giving our full view until we have had more time to digest, but we thought this angle was definitely worth sharing.
Those of you who read our opinions on how the trade war with the US is affecting China will know that one of main concerns is about the relationship between the government and the people in China. This week, Xi has echoed that warning. The Chinese leader stressed the need to maintain political stability in the face of economic challenges. The warning, which came at an unusual meeting of Chinese leaders, shows the ruling party’s anxieties over the social implications of the slowing economy.
FINSUM: Chinese leadership is in a tight jam. On the one hand they have the US squeezing them with tariffs, and on the other, they have the need to maintain the economy’s strong growth to keep people happy. Remember that leaders are unelected, so their grip on control is very tied to keeping everyone satisfied.
Markets are taking bad news out of China hard. New data out of Beijing shows that the country’s exports dropped sharply in December. The figures suggest a global slowdown, and a brutal trade war with the US are taking their toll on the Chinese economy. Exports fell a whopping 4.4%. China also held a $323 bn trade surplus with the US, the largest since 2006. Imports fell 7.6%, showing how much the slowdown in China was affecting demand. Car sales in in the country also declined for the first time since 1990.
FINSUM: The tariffs are working, but there is a larger issue at stake—the US and the world’s relationship to China. There is a lot of strain being put on the country, and we are concerned about how the government there will react.
Happy new year—the Dow opened down 350 points this morning on fears over a Chinese slowdown. New data is out of the country which shows that Beijing’s manufacturing sector is contracting, a sign that tariffs may be flowing through to the economy. That makes markets hope more than ever for a trade agreement between the US and Beijing, which would likely alleviate the economic strain. The S&P 500 has fallen 20.2% on an intraday basis, an official bear market.
FINSUM: The implications of a big Chinese slowdown are serious. Firstly, how does the country react politically to what they likely view (or will project) as a US-imposed slowdown? Secondly, how much does the slowdown drag down the global economy?