Displaying items by tag: inflation

In a striking twist, the Biden administration’s final week coincided with the best stock market performance since Trump’s re-election, fueled by a bond market rally following unexpectedly mild inflation data. The S&P 500 surged nearly 3%, just shy of the 6000 mark, while the Dow posted its strongest week in months, aided by a sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields. 

Despite this upbeat sendoff, Biden’s term closes with a mixed economic legacy: robust job creation and stock market gains were offset by a historic drop in real disposable income and surging national debt. The inflation respite behind the rally may not indicate lasting relief, as core inflation remains stubbornly stalled near 3.3%. 

Rising crude oil and gasoline prices threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. As the market shifts focus to Trump’s fiscal policy, investors brace for more stimulative measures that could push long-term Treasury yields past 5%, setting the stage for new challenges in both equity and bond markets.

Finsum: The most recent Fed minutes suggest a strong concern over taming inflation in the new administration so keep those inflation strategies handy. 

Gold prices retreated slightly after hitting a record high in response to the Federal Reserve's half-point interest rate cut. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,560.29 per ounce after briefly reaching $2,592.39 earlier in the day, while U.S. gold futures closed up 0.2%. 

The Fed's decision to lower rates, which is expected to continue into next year, has pushed gold prices higher due to its reduced opportunity cost compared to interest-bearing assets. As bond yields rise and the dollar weakens, the demand for gold strengthens. Investors are awaiting further insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the future direction of monetary policy. 

Meanwhile, with inflation still elevated, many are turning to gold as a hedge against eroding purchasing power. Silver prices rose 0.6%, while platinum remained steady, and palladium dropped 3.2%.

Finsum: Gold could be an important hedge if inflation comes back from the grave with interest rates quickly falling. 

An unprecedented number of American households are uncertain about the economic future, with many expecting inflation to take a larger portion of their income. Financial stress from the high cost of living and rising borrowing costs has added to the uncertainty, especially in an election year. 

Though consumer sentiment slightly improved in September due to expectations of lower inflation and potential interest rate cuts, the overall view of current conditions remains near record lows. Prices are still significantly higher than before the pandemic, despite inflation slowing.

 A growing number of Americans expect no real income growth over the next five years. Additionally, confidence in achieving a comfortable retirement is at its lowest point since 2013.

Finsum: Inflation hasn’t been a strong concern for retirement in nearly 40 years, but suddenly it is having a critical impact, and investors should consider options accordingly.

Investors remain concerned about how inflation could affect their portfolios. Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts, inflation remains elevated, making it a good time to consider adding inflation hedges to your investments. Here are three top inflation hedges to protect your portfolio:

1. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): These U.S. government bonds adjust their interest rates with inflation, providing a reliable safeguard for bond investments.

1. Floating-rate bonds: These bonds adjust their payouts with rising interest rates, offering protection against inflation. You can access them through ETFs or mutual funds for added diversification.

1. Real estate: Investing in a house with a fixed-rate mortgage can hedge against inflation. If a house directly isn’t possible SFR or REITs are great options. 

Avoid long-term fixed-rate bonds and cash savings as they lose value in real terms during high inflation.

Finsum: Inflation still remains above the official Fed target and with a potential slew of cuts coming, inflation could spark again. 

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady during its two-day policy meeting this week but signal potential rate cuts as soon as September, acknowledging that inflation is nearing the 2% target. 

Recent data shows easing price pressures, with the PCE price index rising at just 1.5% annualized since March. Fed officials may change their inflation description from "elevated" to "moderately elevated," reflecting confidence that inflation will continue to decline. 

Policymakers believe rate cuts might be necessary before inflation fully returns to the target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the policy statement release detailing the future path of policy. 

Finsum: The market is still pricing in two more cuts by the end of the year, we’ll see if that comes to fruition.