Displaying items by tag: inflation

In its 2024 investment outlook, Morgan Stanley shared why it’s bullish on fixed income. A major reason is that it expects for inflation to continue moderating. Within fixed income, the bank likes high-quality bonds and government debt from developed markets. In terms of equities, it sees less upside given that markets have already priced in a soft landing.

 

According to Serena Tang, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist at Morgan Stanley Research, “Central banks will have to get the balance correct between tightening just enough and easing quickly enough. For investors, 2024 should be all about threading the needle and looking for small openings in markets that can generate positive returns.”  

 

The bank recommends a more cautious approach in the first half of 2024 as there are numerous headwinds including restrictive monetary policy, a conservative earnings outlook, and slower economic growth. However, it sees rate cuts starting in June of 2024 which should provide a boost to the economic outlook in the second half of 2024 due to inflation falling to the Fed’s target.

 

It also expects lower levels of global growth in the US, Europe, and UK while also seeing weak Chinese growth as a risk, although it believes that the country will avoid a deflationary spiral that could have negative ripple effects for the wider region. 


Finsum: Morgan Stanley shared its 2024 outlook. Overall, it’s bullish on fixed income due to expectations that inflation will continue to fall while growth will disappoint in 2024. 

 

Published in Wealth Management
Tuesday, 28 November 2023 03:00

Rising Odds of a Soft Landing

Something has shifted in the market following the softer than expected October CPI report. At one point this year, a recession in 2024 seemed like the consensus trade, especially following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, stresses in the banking system, and fears that high rates would choke off growth. 

 

Now, the odds of a soft landing are rising. According to Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income’s chief investment strategist, many seem to be aware of the historical context of previous soft landings. He cites 2018 and the mid-1990s as examples of rate hike cycles that didn’t result in a recession.

 

He believes that rising rates and tighter financial conditions are only recessionary, if economic growth is dependent on borrowing. He adds that “The excesses that would typically create a recession are simply not in existence. A lot of the expansions in the past were dependent on borrowing, but this time, it is a job growth driven organic expansion.” 

 

In contrast to previous borrowing-driven expansions, there is much less leverage. Financial institutions remain well-capitalized, household balance sheets are in solid standing, lending standards remain high, and there are no asset bubbles in sight. Adding to this is that the economy continues to add jobs while consumer spending remains firm on a real basis. 


Finsum: PGIM’s Robert Tipp believes that a soft landing outcome is likely. He points to the lack of leverage, historical instances, and firmness of the labor market and consumer spending as primary factors.

 

Published in Wealth Management

Homebuilder sentiment declined to 34 in November as mortgage rates rose for most of the month according to a survey by the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB). Anything below 50 is indicative of poor sentiment, however there was some optimism that the recent decline in rates may lead to an improvement in conditions. 

 

Higher rates have stifled demand and increased the cost of financing for homebuilders and developers. Another headwind has been low inventories, resulting in less transactions. Overall, the survey results declined from 56 in July to its current level. However, the survey does not reflect the recent decline in rates following the soft October CPI report. 

 

All three components of the survey showed weakening with sales conditions falling 6 points to 40, sales expectations over the next 6 months dropping to 39 from 45, and buyer traffic declining from 26 to 21. 

 

According to Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, “While builder sentiment was down again in November, recent macroeconomic data point to improving conditions for home construction in the coming months. In particular, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates close to or below 7.5%.” He believes that a decline in rates, coupled with low inventories, could set the stage for a rebound in sentiment. 


Finsum: November’s homebuilder sentiment survey report came out and showed a major decline. However, there is some optimism that the recent decline in rates could lead to a rebound in sentiment in the coming months.

 

Published in Eq: Real Estate

According to a report by Nationwide, women investors are getting more uneasy about their retirement prospects as market volatility continues and inflation remains a concern. Nationwide’s eighth annual “Advisor Authority” study, which is sponsored by its Nationwide Retirement Institute, found that more than 40% of women believe the U.S. is in a financial crisis, with another 24% believing that one is looming. Women are also feeling discouraged about retirement preparedness as the report found that nearly nine in 10 women (87%) said that no matter what they do to manage their finances, they still feel blindsided by events outside their control. That marks a double-digit percentage point increase over last year as only 76% voiced that sentiment in 2022. Nationwide also noted that more than half of non-retired women investors (54%) believe that inflation poses the most immediate challenge to their retirement. Thirty-eight percent also cited economic recession as a disruptor, while 21% pointed to market volatility. The “Advisor Authority” research was conducted online within the U.S. by the Harris Poll on behalf of Nationwide in January. The survey included 511 advisors and financial professionals and 789 investors aged 18 or over with investable assets of more than $10,000.


Finsum:According to Nationwide’s eighth annual “Advisor Authority” study, women investors are more uneasy about their retirement portfolios as market volatility, inflation, and a potential economic recession remain a concern.

Published in Wealth Management

According to Man Group boss Luke Ellis, investors should get used to volatility in the markets. Last Tuesday, Ellis predicted inflation will remain high because of strong wage growth in much more volatile markets. He stated, “It will take a lot of years before inflation is put to bed again. We’re in a different paradigm.” He added, “The base effects are running out and we still have very significant wage inflation. It’s not squeezing services [sector] wage inflation, and services is such a big part of the economy. You can’t get consistently to [a] 2 percent [inflation target] when you have 6 to 7 percent wage inflation.” Ellis also said that he did not believe stocks had yet bottomed out. He compared the current environment to the 1970s when the real return from equities after inflation was about zero. His comments come as U.S. stocks fell in February with investors growing concerned that the strength of the economy might require higher interest rates, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose more than expected in January. In addition, both France and Spain also reported a rise in inflation, beating forecasts.


Finsum:Man Group boss Luke Ellis predicts inflation will remain high due to strong wage growth in volatile markets.

Published in Wealth Management
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