This infrastructure package is a big deal in many ways. Not only has it been—and will it be—a major market-mover, but the deal is also expansive and intricate in scope. For example, did you know that $100 bn has been specifically earmarked for increasing internet connectivity/infrastructure, which Biden refers to as the new electricity. As one can imagine, this will creative strong returns for firms that specialize in the space. Accordingly, take a look at two stocks: Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT), and American Tower Corporation (REIT) (NYSE: AMT). AMT is a chipmaker and the forthcoming expansion of internet connectivity is seen as a big driver for the chips they make. American Tower is a major provider of 5G broadband, which will be heavily supported the proposed infrastructure package.
FINSUM: If and when it passes, this package is going to be a huge market driver for years to come. These stocks seem like a no-brainer.
Those with a lot of money in tech stocks may be starting to breathe a sigh of relief. After a rough period to start the year. The last few weeks has been quite positive for tech, so the worst may be behind us, right? The answer is that it may not be, according to some analysts. There are two huge trends (and one macro factor) that look likely to weigh on the sector for the next year. Firstly, three of the very largest stocks—Facebook, Apple, and Google, have gotten to the point in size where their growth is going to start inevitably slowing, which means the narrative around them will change. Additionally, the success of the vaccine rollout is increasingly, which means a reversal to pre-COVID norms seems likely. Tech stocks are also quite rate sensitive, which gives them a lot of “Fed risk”.
FINSUM: While it is hard to argue with the interest rate risk, we cannot get on board with the other two narratives. Everyone knows FAANG stocks are huge, the growth story is no secret. More generally though, we just don’t buy into the narrative that these stocks will suffer from the “reopening”. Consumer habits in many areas (e.g. grocery shopping and increased food delivery) have changed and that will continue to allow big tech stocks to grab market share and grow. Just ask your grown children and friends how they feel about going back to the grocery store….
You probably have not even registered it, but food prices have risen sharply since late last year. One big reason why this is going mostly unnoticed is that economists, and thus the media, like to report inflation with food and energy stripped out. According to Jefferies, “Almost unnoticed, broad food and agricultural prices have climbed vertically”. So the question is who will benefit, and luckily that is quite clear. Firstly, fertilizer companies tend to do well when food prices are high and are uncorrelated to other asset classes. And secondly, agricultural machinery is a big winner. The sector is already experiencing exceptional supply tightness, which is bullish for pricing. According to Barron’s “large tractor prices up roughly 20% year-over-year and small tractors up about 50%, on the back of significantly tighter inventories”.
FINSUM: Deere and AgCo seem like quite good buys given this backdrop.
One of Biden’s most important campaign promises was that he would not raise taxes on the middle class…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site