FINSUM

FINSUM

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(New York)

Want to maintain your portfolio’s income, but also afraid of rising rates? Many are, as it is a difficult challenge keep income high but not experience losses. With that in mind, here are a handful of mutual funds which should help do just that. One area to look for diversified income right now is in multi-asset income funds. Some of the best are the American Funds Income Fund of America (AMECX), the Vanguard Wellesley Income (VWINX), the BlackRock Multi-Asset Income (BAICX), the JPMorgan Income Builder (JNBAX), and the Principal Global Diversified Income (PGBAX).


FINSUM: Many of these funds are quite old and have had great performance. Fees are all over the map, but one of the areas where they tend to succeed is in having good performance with lower volatility than the market as a whole.

Monday, 15 October 2018 09:32

Are Junk Bonds Coated in Teflon?

(New York)

By now one would have expected junk bonds to have experienced a large selloff. The sector already had a low spread to Treasuries, has mountains of fringe credits, and has been facing a period of rising rates. Yet, high yield has been performing very well, with the weakest credits, paradoxically, performing best. There has been no sustained flight out of the sector, and spreads are higher than at the start of the month, but still not even where they were for much of the year.


FINSUM: The big risk here is that investors aren’t being paid enough for the risks they are taking. The whole junk sector, not to mention the loads of BBB credits that are technically investment grade, are very susceptible to recession and higher rates. At some point there are going to be some major losses.

Monday, 15 October 2018 09:30

The Winners and Losers in Rising Rates

(New York)

Whether investors like it or not, the market seems to have finally come to grips with the reality of higher rates. That realization has started to change the performance of different assets from even a week ago. So who will win and who will lose? On the positive side, financials and banks seem likely to benefit, as they make a great deal of their income from interest. Energy and materials stock are likely to shine as well as they benefit from the expanding economy. On the losing side will be utilities, housing, and autos stocks, all of which are sensitive to higher rates in their own ways. No one can be sure how tech might respond, as the sector is young enough that there is not good evidence to say how it might react.


FINSUM: The business case for how most sectors will be impacted by higher rates is clear. If only share performance were so simple.

Monday, 15 October 2018 09:29

The Small Cap Boom is Over

(New York)

One of the big beneficiaries of all the geopolitical events of this year, as well as of rates hikes, has been small caps. Smaller companies tend to perform better in economic expansion, and they look more likely to hold up to foreign trade tensions as they have a more domestic focus. After hitting records in August, small caps are now in correction territory, having lost 10% from their high. They are now underperforming large caps for the first time this year as many see trade tensions easing.


FINSUM: Small caps sometimes suffer at the end of economic expansions, so this move makes sense. Still an almost 9% loss in the Russell 2000 this month is rough.

Monday, 15 October 2018 09:28

Why Wages Aren’t Rising

(New York)

One of the big mysteries in this recovery has been the fact that wages have not risen much despite the fact that employment has expanded greatly. Investors have gotten used to massive amounts of new jobs being created, but also to quite meager wage gains. Economists have been somewhat stumped as to why, but a new explanation makes a lot of sense—monopsony. Those with an economics background will immediate recognize the term. It refers to when there are many suppliers of something but only one buyer. In this case it is being applied to the labor market—there are tons of available workers, but quite few employers, especially in more isolated locations. This means the employer has sole negotiating power in dictating wages, leading to widespread wage stagnation despite a competitive labor market.


FINSUM: This seems like the outcome of all the corporate consolidation that has occurred over the last few decades. There are less employers, so they collectively have more power to hold down wages.

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