Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator from West Virginia, made a splash last week when he pulled his support for the build back better citing a number of problems that keep him from backing the bill. However, this week Manchin did a 180 on the billionaire tax saying he would be willing to support it in a revised version of the bill. Manchin’s version of the bill includes many of the same spending appropriations such as pre-k care, climate change, and Obamacare, but omitted certain pieces like the child tax credit. Manchin’s vote is critical if Biden hopes to pass the bill, but with rising inflation, labor shortages, and spiking national debt, he’s still reluctant to throw his weight behind Biden’s bill.

FINSUM: Remember the House’s version of the bill didn’t include a billionaire tax, even if Manchin puts it back on the table it’s unlikely the final bill will include it.

The low rate environment has flipped the paradigm of many investors when it comes to the bond market, and most investors are leaning on higher-yield fixed income ETFs to augment their portfolios. Sure fixed-income ETFs are mainly used as a risk mitigator for most investors, but they also are the way to generate alpha. Investors can better manage the liquidity of Fixed income ETFs as opposed to individual bonds, so they pose fewer liquidity constraints when selling. With liquidity concerns off the table, investors can more freely move securities to look for an advantage of standard indices, hence alpha. On top of this, their broader exposure is a better source of risk mitigation as well.

FINSUM: Being able to flip a fixed income ETF faster than individual bonds is a leg up in decision making, and another reason to cast a wider net in the current fixed income market.

Omicron is sweeping the U.S. and once again threatening to cripple the economy, already major airlines are canceling flights and potential Christmas plans. This makes moderate Dems walkout on the Build Back Better even more critical as the country could desperately be in need of stimulus at the moment. This caused Goldman to cut its GDP growth by 1% annualized in Q1 2022 and a half a percent in Q2. CPI rose at a 39-year record in November, which could make the possibility of a big BBB bill even less likely as price pressures deter policy makers. Goldman still sees the possibility that congress will aid a bit with the new omicron surging.

FINSUM: It’s tough to justify another trillion-dollar stimulus package with roaring inflation, and it might be futile with the Fed pumping the breaks; lookout for stagflation!

Some trends were definitely starting to take hold in 2021, but those are going to continue to flourish in 2022. The first of which is an active fund take over, as it appears active fund starts will outpace passive funds and see huge inflows on top of it. The next biggest trend will be more RIA’s rolling up their proprietary model portfolios into ETF launches. These model-based funds are the best way for professionals to package their expertise and deliver it effectively to clients. A number of recent SEC policies make it easier for a variety of ETF launches to happen this year so expect this explosion to continue in 2022.

FINSUM: It makes sense that model portfolios will explode, firms can be more transparent about their areas of expertise by delivering them in fund form explicitly.

Wells Fargo is aggressively pushing branch managers to maintain and recruit new brokers with a variety of incentive-based packages. For example, penalties will be in place for a drop in headcount when it comes to year-end bonuses and will include headcount retention and arrivals rather than purely based on overall revenue. Managers say they could lose big if they don’t increase new brokers and retain old ones. Wells has suffered in its ability to retain advisors as of late and is trying to play catch up with the incentives. Separate recruiting and retention bonuses will also be part of next year’s pay incentive structure.

FINSUM: These are drastic pay changes to the management structure; Wells is serious about growing its working base.