FINSUM
JPMorgan Gets Very Bullish
JPMorgan Chase & Co issued a statement for investors to remain bullish about global equities moving forward. They believe the largest sources of risk are hawkish central banks, slowing growth in China, and global covid restrictions, but most of these threats are already priced in. Even if they aren’t quite priced in the chances of them really materializing is minimal. They remain positive as benchmark indices remain at near all-time highs. This sentiment is shared by lots on Wallstreet, like Credit Suisse. Moreover, to best take advantage of this growth, they advise to overweight Euro stocks, financial, commodity miners, and automobile manufactures.
FINSUM: The bears haven’t stopped barking but equities remain high and P/E ratios aren’t crazy, there’s room to run.
Active Fixed Income Continues Stellar Performance
ETFs saw a record performance in 2022 as inflows almost reached 1 trillion dollars, and while equity brought in over 60% of the inflows the second half was dominated by the fixed income market. This momentum in fixed income is expected to swell in 2022, particularly for the active ETF funds. Driving that those trending figures are the outperformance of active funds over passive funds, and an almost peak interest rate and inflation uncertainty. This sort of bourgeoning inflation and constricting Fed is unprecedented for the post-Volcker era. Active Issuers like T. Rowe price are very bullish on their prospects in the upcoming year.
FINSUM: While active funds haven’t brought home major returns they are getting better yield than passive funds and more diversity rather than piling on U.S. government securities.
Former Commodities Chair Criticizes Biden’s Crypto Regulation
Christopher Giancarlo is a former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and he spoke out against the Biden Admin’s crackdown on crypto. Biden’s Administration has made it clear that he wants tighter controls on stable coins, which peg to the existing government currencies, and crypto more broadly speaking of the systematic risk. Giancarlo says these regulations are short sited and they fail to see how crypto could improve economic growth and efficiency. He also said that a new regulation bureau should be created to manage crypto and that the government should create its own digital dollar. Giancarlo was a republican appointed by the Obama administration, and this criticism could be very important.
FINSUM: Don’t overlook the ability of stable coins to improve economic effectiveness in allowing for more efficient global financial flows.
Medicare Changes Coming in 2022
Most all Americans rely on medicare during their retirement as a means of subsidizing or paying for their healthcare. This year is more critical than ever as changes hit medicare payments because the U.S. is seeing a spike in inflation that eats at retirement funds and might put many in a bind. Medicare costs are split into two main categories: Part A, hospital coverage and Part B, outpatient care. Most don’t pay for a Part A premium and for those that don’t meet the work requirements costs aren’t changing much about $28 for the year, but Part B is a different story. For the lowest income category, the payment is up to $21 a month, and that only increases as tax returns increases. Individuals should appeal their part B premium if their income had a significant change.
FINSUM: These healthcare cost changes are huge, and retirees need to address them in their portfolio given spiking prolonged inflation.
SEC Warns of Surge in Reg BI Enforcement
Brokers better look out, the SEC has started the new year with a bang. The Commission has mostly been quiet about its potential Reg BI changes since the rule went into effect about 18 months ago. However, a big new warning has come out from Quinn Emanuel’s SEC enforcement practice. There are “strong indications” of much more robust enforcement coming. According to Kurt Wolfe of the SEC Enforcement Practice, “SEC Chair Gary Gensler is under pressure from broad constituencies to show results in the space. For example, at a recent hearing of the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) encouraged Chair Gensler to ‘take further action to strengthen this rulemaking,”. Further, “the SEC has signaled that regulated firms may not be getting Reg BI right, and senior SEC officials have made it clear that they intend to take an expansive, perhaps aggressive, approach to Reg BI.”
FINSUM: Since Biden took office it has really only been a matter of time until enforcement scaled up. It is now clear that it is coming.