Goldman Sachs updated its path for Fed tightening in 2022 calling for four rate hikes instead of three in 2022. This is a fairly aggressive path for tightening as the current Fed target interest rate is between 0%-.25% which means it will hit around 1-1.25 by Goldman’s forecast. The biggest reason for the rate rises is the tightening labor market. Previously the Fed leaned on slack in the labor market as an excuse to brush off inflation concerns but now they are no longer doing that. Goldman has the hikes penciled in for each quarter March, June, September, and now December. Goldman saw regional San Francisco President Mary Daly’s comments of shedding some balance sheet weight of indicating the Fed’s future path.

Finsum: The Fed hasn’t tightened this quickly in the post-financial crisis era, but broadly the markets and yields are in lock step with Goldman’s predictions.

Wells Fargo sent out a thank you note to external recruiters for their work and efforts in locking in lots of senior hires in 2021. Well’s is going to continue and extend many of the measures it implemented in 2021 into 2022 such as hiring offers for brokers and higher referral fees for outside recruiters. Wells saw their recruiting and retention drop after their scandal in 2016 and it’s been a continuing effort to get back to par with hires. In addition to all the sweetened deals surrounding recruiting there are also measures such as pay cuts if managers lose brokers or don’t hit sufficient hiring statistics. Well’s decision to close their international business has also been a major contributor to their inability to gain transactions in recruiting efforts.

Finsum: Wells used to stand out for their Broker compensation, however competitors are stepping up, and Wells no longer stands out.

Investors have been wary of tech stocks as of late and instead are parking their money in investment-grade corporate bond funds. This week the sector garnered a whopping $2.9 billion in inflows which is the biggest week since July, over six months ago. Markets are expecting the Fed to hike this year, which means borrowing rates will start to hurt the growth-oriented stock, and the Nasdaq slumped to its worst start since 2008 as a result. However, the rising yields are also pushing more investors into relatively riskless corporate debt. Junk bonds didn’t get the same bump as many indices were down with a hawkish Fed.

Finsum: Don’t sell on tech stocks just yet, but it could be a bearish year for the number one market segment the last year if the Fed hikes four times!

House prices are at all-time highs, and since a small slump at the start of the pandemic have really seen rapid growth but are they in a bubble? Long story short, probably not, because a few key metrics are keeping them elevated. Federal Gov assistance programs have diminished the foreclosure numbers. Added to that the trillions poured into countless QE and MBS purchases have made mortgage rates be at near all-time lows. Finally, there appear to be real shortfalls in different housing markets, and the pandemics work from anywhere policies are having strong growth in places like Boise, Austin, and Orlando. All of these factors come together to say that there is a relatively low risk of a housing bubble but to keep your eyes peeled.

Finsum: The Case Shiller home price index is at an all-time high but more importantly growing at an all-time rate, this is getting close to bubble territory but it is lacking the speculative component.

Timing is everything in the market, and investors have a lot of reasons to be cautious in the bond market. A confluence of factors is making it likely that bond yields might jump up in 2022, particularly on longer-duration government debt. This is concerning as bond yields and prices move in the opposite directions so jumping on long-term debt right now could be deadly. For instance, the latest treasury yield rise sent an equivalent of an 800-point Dow Jones plunge in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT). This is potentially scary as the markets are expecting three 25 basis points hikes from the Fed this year and inflation could also send bond yields rising. Most funds would see between a 1-3% hit on a 30-basis point yield spike.

Finsum: It’s critical to time the market but you might just stay away from long-term bonds, and stay on the shorter end of the duration.